Ivory Coast election dispute raises questions over reconciliation

At first glance, the situation in Ivory Coast is another case of a disputed election in a country where the president holds the central role in the political system. Following November's election, the incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, is refusing to accept his defeat by former prime minister Alassane Dramane Ouattara. Gbagbo is using his personal connections to the constitutional court to declare votes from Oattara's northern strongholds invalid.

Ouattara was initially declared the winner with 54% of the ballot – and he disputes claims some of those votes were invalid. Subsequently, both men have sworn the presidency oath and presented their cabinets – to the bemusement of Ivorians and the international community.

With Gbagbo having the control of the military and the media as well as the Young Patriots nationalist group, the scene seems set for another sad tale that spirals into hostility and violence and splits the country in half.

Ouattara has his stronghold in the north of the country where his party, the RDR, has its base in the town of Yamoussoukro. The North signalled its opposition to Gbagbo in an attempted coup d'etat in 2002 that led to violent confrontations. An uneasy peace was brokered with the help of Burkina Faso's president, Blaise Compaoré in 2007 with the aim of restoring stability to the country and allowing the presidential elections that had been put on hold since 2005.

The elections follow this pattern of a split in which the northern regions feel they are losing out economically to the south. Former president Felix Houphouët-Boigny had ruled the country with an "iron hand" from independence in 1960 to 1993, and the networks established under him remained to keep the political and economic power centred on the south – an indicator of this "old boys network" is Gbagbo's control of the constitutional court. This divide of the country may lead to renewed violence along the old fronts within the country, but in this elections there is another dimension: the international.

Here the two rivals are using different tactics: in the past Gbagbo has used nationalist sentiments to rally political support against outsiders. This became evident when in 2004 the Ivorian air force bombed French peacekeeping forces in the north of the country, under the pretext of attacking rebel forces. Although Gbagbo's government claimed this was a mistake, the French retaliated by effectively destroying the Ivorians' few aircraft. This led to anti-French riots in Abidjan that were rumoured to have been orchestrated by the government.

In statements after the recent elections, Gbagbo again accused foreign forces, including the UN, of meddling in domestic affairs. Sovereignty is a passionate concept in African politics, and is closely linked to independence from colonialism and foreign interference. Young Jin-Choi, chief of the UN mission to the country, denies any intervention, as does the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas). However, nationalism remains a potent populist political weapon for Gbagbo and his party. Drawing on a wider dislike of foreigners, it has a powerful resonance across Ivorian communities.

Ouattara, on the other hand, has the support of the international community: having been a high-ranking economist at the IMF for several years he is certainly at home in diplomatic circles. His election victory, which was confirmed on 2 December by the president of the independent electoral commission, Youssouf Bakayoko, has been backed by the UN, the European and African Unions, Ecowas, the US and France. This contrast between exclusive nationalism and economic rights on one side, and political and human rights on the other, echoes disputes elsewhere in Africa, most notably Zimbabwe.

There are international calls for calm and mediation, and the African Union sent in former South African president Thabo Mbeki as mediator. But no solution seems to be in sight: neither of the rivals is willing to back down and the international community is faced with a tricky situation – Ouattara's margin of victory makes him the winner of a democratic election, but it is insufficient for anything else but careful and calm mediation.

Curiously, the Ivorian electorate themselves seem to be sharing this outlook: although the country's borders are closed at present, and there is severe disruption to news reports coming in and out of the country, they appear to have the coolest heads of all. There have been few reports of political disturbances – and the role of civil leaders is apparent in the population's apparent determination to avoid either embracing Gbagbo's nationalism and xenophobia, or being seduced by the international support Ouattara's premiership would bring.

The story in Ivory Coast is about far more than a disputed election: it raises the question of how far there has been societal reconciliation following the recent civil war, and the wisdom of returning to adversarial politics inherent in democratic elections. When is a good time to have elections after civil war?

Christian Kramer, a research assistant in the Africa Programme at LSE IDEAS, the international research centre at the London School of Economics.