David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 02/02/06):
Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shiite militia Hezbollah, said Thursday that a political stalemate that has paralyzed Lebanon is "99 percent resolved" and that Shiite Cabinet ministers are likely to return to their posts soon, allowing the Lebanese government to function normally again.
The five Shiite members of the Lebanese Cabinet have been boycotting meetings for the past month, plunging the country into what Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora said in an interview Wednesday night was a "political crisis."
Nasrallah's comment in an interview with The Washington Post today was the first public indication that the Lebanese cabinet crisis is nearing an end.
Nasrallah said he had to work out final details with fellow Shiite leader Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament and head of the Amal movement, before making a public announcement of the breakthrough.
At the heart of the impasse has been Hezbollah's demand that its armed guerrilla force in southern Lebanon be recognized as a legitimate resistance movement against Israeli incursions of Lebanese territory, as opposed to a militia that would have be to be disarmed under the terms of UN Security Council Resolution 1559.
This issue was finessed by a statement today by Siniora in the Lebanese parliament, which Nasrallah said he found acceptable.
The second key element of the political settlement was an agreement by Siniora and the political parties that make up a majority of the cabinet that major issues would be resolved by consensus of all groups, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah had walked out of the cabinet Jan. 12, complaining that the consensus rules had not been followed when Siniora demanded support for an international tribunal that would adjudicate the assassination of Lebanese political leaders, including former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
The boycott of cabinet meetings by the Shiite ministers had created a severe political deadlock in Lebanon since the government couldn't take action on any issues of the country's frayed economic and political life. Lebanese have been talking anxiously in recent days about a new outbreak of sectarian fighting if the political crisis could not be resolved. Today's disclosure by Nasrallah, assuming the details are indeed worked out, would be a major boost for the Siniora government and its key backers, France and the United States.