Even before the Mark Foley scandal broke, Democrats’ chances of getting control of the House of Representatives were pretty good. Now, with the incompetence of the Republican leadership’s handling of that affair, the odds of Democratic control are looking very good indeed.
With liberals like New York’s Charlie Rangel in line to head important House committees like the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, some investors are starting to worry about tax increases on the rich and business bashing-legislation. Needless to say, Republicans are doing what they can to stoke such fears.
As a Republican, I have a message for those fearful of Democratic control: don’t worry. Nothing dreadful is going to happen. Liberals have much less to gain than they believe.
I speak with some knowledge. In 1994, after Republicans took control of Congress, my fellow conservatives and I met to plan a legislative agenda. My colleagues were ecstatic. In one fell swoop we were going to do all the things that Democratic control of Congress had effectively blocked since 1954, when the last Republican Congress was defeated.
I didn’t make myself very popular by reminding people that Bill Clinton was still going to be president for at least another two years. How were we going to get these measures enacted into law over his all-but-certain veto? Flush with victory and convinced that they had a mandate from the American people to pass a conservative legislative agenda, my friends simply dismissed my concerns as defeatist.
Well, Cassandra wasn’t very popular, either, but she was right, and so was I. Within a year, the conservative revolution was all but over. When Republicans forced a showdown with Mr. Clinton over the budget, they ended up blinking. After that, Republicans in Congress lost their reformist zeal and settled into playing the political game pretty much the same way the Democrats had for the previous 40 years: using federal money to buy votes to hold on to power any way possible.
My Democratic friends no doubt feel the way we Republicans did in those heady days of 1994 before political reality came knocking. Many probably think they will finally get the truth about what the White House knew about Iraq before the invasion. They may think they can use the power of the purse to force a withdrawal. Some may even imagine that articles of impeachment can be brought against President Bush, while others plan to enact national health insurance and other pet liberal schemes.
To all this I say: Ain’t gonna happen. For starters, President Bush will still occupy the White House for the next two years. And although his veto pen may have been misplaced for most of the last six years, he found it again this summer.
For another thing, Democrats are unlikely to get more than a very thin majority in the House. If they get the Senate as well, it will not be with more than a one-vote margin. Consequently, effective control will be in the hands of moderates who often work with Republicans on specific issues. In a delicious bit of irony, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, lately excoriated by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, may end up holding the balance of power in the Senate.
As for impeachment and cutting money for Iraq, such actions would be politically insane and the Democratic leadership knows it. They will make the White House pay a price for Iraq, but will ensure that they don’t get blamed for any debacle resulting from failure to provide adequate money for our troops.
Democrats may have more success using Congressional committees to investigate accusations of wrongdoing by the Bush administration, but that will be much harder than they think. The Republicans cut thousands of committee staff positions when they took control, and it will take considerable time to find the money and staff to do any serious investigating.
Also, the Bush White House can simply use all the stalling techniques that the Clinton White House perfected to frustrate Congressional investigations by Republicans. The only thing left to worry about is expiration of the Bush tax cuts, which Democrats will certainly not want to extend. But most of them don’t expire until 2010, so there is no urgency. Anyway, there is no certainty that continued Republican control of Congress would assure extension of the tax cuts. If party control were all that mattered, they would have been extended already.
In short, there is really no reason for conservatives, businessmen or investors to worry particularly about a Democratic victory in November. Congress will be on automatic pilot for the next two years regardless of which party is in control.
Bruce Bartlett, an official under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, is the author of Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy.