So what now? North Korea is the fourth, possibly fifth, state to have rejected the 1970 non-proliferation treaty and proceeded towards a nuclear arsenal. The others are India, Pakistan, Israel and perhaps Iran. That makes five states in the old nuclear club (America, Russia, Britain, France and China) and five in the new one. The appropriate relationship, diplomatic, military and moral, between the two clubs is now a consuming world obsession.
There is no easy answer. If strategically secure countries such as Britain and France want nuclear missiles as an ultimate line of defence, why not Iran and North Korea?… Seguir leyendo »
KIM JONG IL has squandered the wild card that has kept the world at bay: fear of the damage that this utterly ruthless and unpredictable tyrant could inflict if his grip on power began to disintegrate.
By turning nuclear threat into nuclear reality, he has stood the instability equation on its head. He has so badly upset the Asian applecart by this action that, not only to the US and Japan, but crucially also to North Korea’s Chinese and South Korean neighbours, it has begun to look even more dangerous to leave the Dear Leader in place than to start trying to engineer his fall.… Seguir leyendo »
By Selig S. Harrison, a former Post bureau chief in Northeast Asia, is the director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy and the author of "Korean Endgame" (THE WASHINGTON POST, 10/10/06):
"You have learned to live with other nuclear powers," said Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan, North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator, leaning forward over the dinner table in Pyongyang. "So why not us? We really want to coexist with the United States peacefully, but you must learn to coexist with a North Korea that has nuclear weapons."
"That doesn't sound like you are serious when you talk about denuclearization," I replied.… Seguir leyendo »
By David Frum, a speechwriter for President Bush from 2001 to 2002, is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the co-author of 'An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror' (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 10/10/06):
THE North Korean nuclear test — if that indeed is what it was — signals the catastrophic collapse of a dozen years of American policy. Over that period, two of the world’s most dangerous regimes, Pakistan and North Korea, have developed nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them. Iran, arguably the most dangerous of them all, will surely follow, unless some dramatic action is soon taken.… Seguir leyendo »
By Dan Plesch, a fellow at the School of Oriental and African Studies and Keele University, is the author of The Beauty Queen's Guide to World Peace (THE GUARDIAN, 10/10/06):
North Korea's nuclear test is only the latest failure of the west's proliferation policy. And it demonstrates the need to return to the proven methods of multilateral disarmament. Far from being crazy, the North Korean policy is quite rational. Faced with a US government that believes the communist regime should be removed from the map, the North Koreans pressed ahead with building a deterrent. George Bush stopped the oil supplies to North Korea that had been part of a framework to end its nuclear programme previously agreed with Bill Clinton.… Seguir leyendo »
A barrage of condemnation did little to disguise the weakness of the international community's position yesterday after North Korea finally crossed the line and apparently proved that it is what it has long claimed to be: a nuclear weapons state. The big powers can huff and puff but there is not a lot new in practical terms that they can do. The explosion was expected. They simply couldn't stop it.The six-party talks process involving North Korea's neighbours and the US that went off the rails last year has now hit a brick wall. Sanctions are the obvious tool to which the US, Japan and other concerned spectators such as Britain will resort.… Seguir leyendo »
North Korea's political paranoia spilled into the open this week when the isolated regime accused the US of plotting a nuclear strike. The state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper said a "sub-critical" underground nuclear test in Nevada last month was part of Washington's efforts to develop new nuclear weapons. "The US is perfecting a nuclear war plan after listing our and other countries as targets for its pre-emptive nuclear attack," it said.An American assault is not remotely on the cards. But North Korea's clamour reflects more than its leadership's persecution complex. In Seoul the claim was read as possible evidence that the North is preparing to justify an imminent nuclear test of its own.… Seguir leyendo »
By Donald Gregg, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and currently chairman of the Korea Society and Don Oberdorfer, a former diplomatic correspondent for The Post and currently chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (THE WASHINGTON POST, 06/09/2006):
The Bush administration is preparing to implement a new set of comprehensive sanctions against North Korea in response to its recent ballistic missile tests. This would be a grave mistake, likely to lift the already dangerous situation on the Korean Peninsula to a new level of tension. Imposing such sanctions at this time could bring about more of the very actions the United States opposes.… Seguir leyendo »
By James Jay Carafano, a senior research fellow for National Security and Homeland Security at The Heritage Foundation and co-author of the book "Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom." (THE WASHINGTON POST, 26/07/06):
No, the United States isn't immune to nuclear attack. But you can bet it's not going to come courtesy of the Taepodong-2 missile the North Koreans fired recently.
North Korea has yet to demonstrate that it has a long-range missile that can shoot straight. The Taepodong-2 barely got off the pad -- and that's eight years after the last test, which also failed.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Edward N. Luttwak, experto del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales (CSIS), Washington. Traducción: José María Puig de la Bellacasa (LA VANGUARDIA, 10/07/06):
Son bien patentes las razones por las que la dictadura norcoreana de Kim Jong Il prueba ahora sus misiles balísticos tras graduales y concienzudos preparativos cómodamente fotografiados por los satélites correspondientes. En realidad, hace todo lo que puede para acaparar la atención, adoptando una actitud intencionadamemte provocativa.
Tal circunstancia reviste indudablemente notable importancia en sí misma, dado que estamos hablando de la dictadura más ridícula y extravagante del planeta. El objetivo de su propaganda es el culto del propio Kim Jong Il, presentado, con diferencia, como el mayor líder mundial y cuyas declaraciones e iniciativas revisten asimismo una importancia inconmensurable y de alcance planetario y cuyo genio político y económico ha convertido Corea del Norte en un paraíso por el que suspira todo el mundo...… Seguir leyendo »
Par Valérie Niquet, directeur du centre Asie de l'Institut français des relations internationales (LE FIGARO, 07/07/06):
Alors que la communauté internationale se focalisait sur l'Iran et ses ambitions nucléaires, la Corée du Nord, qui revendique une capacité nucléaire effective, est allée au bout de ses menaces et a effectué, dans la nuit du 5 juillet, sept tirs de missiles, dont celui, avorté, d'un missile «intercontinental» Taepodong 2, dans la mer du Japon. Il s'agit d'un nouvel acte de rupture de la part du régime nord-coréen. En 1999, en effet, moins d'un an après avoir procédé à un premier test au-dessus du territoire japonais, la Corée du Nord s'était engagée à ne pas procéder à de nouveaux essais.… Seguir leyendo »
By William M. Arkin (THE WASHINGTON POST, 07/07/06):
What's intelligence for, anyway?
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld says he was notified of the North Korean missile testing Tuesday within a minute of the first launch. President Bush says he Rumsfeld called him "right after launch."
The notification came from the well-worn, Cold War-era, early-warning system. Seconds after the rocket engines ignited on their launch pads, infrared cameras aboard Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites detected the heat and transmitted an alert back to U.S. command centers in Colorado Springs, Colo., where the type of missile determined and the trajectory was calculated.
Activity at the launch sites had primed those U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
Bruce Cumings is a professor of history at the University of Chicago. Meredith Jung-En Woo is a professor of political science at the University of Michigan. (NEW YORK TIMES, 07/07/06):
NORTH Korea's July 4 fireworks display had a desperate quality to it, even by the standards of a regime that specializes in self-defeating provocation.
Whatever the original purpose may have been, it took exactly 42 seconds for this spectacle to backfire as the first stage of the long-range Taepodong 2 missile exploded and fell harmlessly into the Pacific. It is a telling metaphor for a regime that hasn't had a successful initiative in two decades.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Rafael Bueno, profesor de Relaciones Internacionales y Comunicación de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (EL PERIÓDICO, 06/07/06):
El lanzamiento de seis misiles el día de la conmemoración del 230 aniversario de la Declaración de Independencia de Estados Unidos de América y de otro más ayer, entre ellos un misil balístico de alcance intercontinental, el Taepodong-2, representa un nuevo intento del régimen de Pyongyang de atraer la atención de la comunidad internacional sobre una situación de inestabilidad como la que vive la península coreana que no debería prolongarse eternamente.
La desinformación y la información malintencionada hacen que cualquier análisis que pretenda abordar lo que sucede al norte del paralelo 38 resulte la mayor parte del tiempo pura especulación, donde las preguntas quedan muchas veces sin respuestas objetivas.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Niall Ferguson, profesor de Historia Laurence A. Tisch de la Universidad de Harvard y miembro de la junta de gobierno del Jesus College de Oxford. Traducción: José María Puig de la Bellacasa (LA VANGUARDIA, 05/06/06):
Los X-Men se han apoderado de Washington. Por un instante creímos que teníamos delante un puñado de incompetentes y fantasiosos neocon -derrochadores, por más señas- al timón de la Administración estadounidense... que la han dejado prácticamente para el arrastre. Pero he aquí que, acto seguido, la misma Administración ha mutado en un grupo de superhéroes. El secretario de Hacienda se ha metamorfoseado en Gold Man (Sachs).… Seguir leyendo »
Por Robert T. McLean, Research Associate del Center for Security Policy de Washington, D.C. (GEES, 11/05/06):
El programa nuclear de Corea del Norte ha sido una preocupación crucial para la administración Bush desde el descubrimiento en el 2002 del programa secreto de enriquecimiento de uranio de Pyongyang. Una crisis ampliamente debatida en los medios y círculos políticos en un momento dado, las negociaciones para detener los esfuerzos nucleares de Irán han entrado una vez más en una prórroga prolongada y el tema parece ampliamente olvidado por parte de la mayoría de los observadores. Mientras que el progreso se ha estancado y la atención pública ha pasado a otras partes, la situación parece tan desesperada como siempre.… Seguir leyendo »
La estrategia para hablar con Corea del Norte. Baker Spring es miembro investigador gracias a la Fundación F.M. Kirby y es especialista en Política de Seguridad Nacional en el Instituto de Estudios Internacionales Kathryn y Shelby Cullom Davis. Balbina Y. Hwang es analista de Política para Asia Nororiental en el Centro de Estudios Asiáticos de la Fundación Heritage (GEES, 01/08/05).
Juego peligroso: (1) Corea, (01/07/05) - (2): Irán (03/07/05). William R. Polk, responsable de la planificación de la política de Estados Unidos para la mayor parte del mundo islámico durante la presidencia de John F. Kennedy (LA VANGUARDIA)
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