¿Cuál es la situación estratégica de la guerra de Ucrania? ¿Qué consecuencias podría tener la contraofensiva ucraniana en función de los resultados que arroje?
En noviembre concluyó la última ofensiva ucraniana con un éxito arrollador, al lograr forzar el cruce del río Siversky Donets y capturar la ciudad de Lyman. Poco después, la presión en Jersón forzó a los rusos a adoptar la dura decisión de retirarse de su cabeza de puente occidental en el Dniepr.
A partir de entonces la movilización rusa, el acortamiento de las líneas defensivas y el desgaste ucraniano forzaron a Kiev a adoptar una postura defensiva.… Seguir leyendo »
A mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin. A car bombing that wounded a key advocate of the invasion of Ukraine. Four military aircraft shot down in a single day — inside Russia’s borders.
If the Ukrainians and their allies wanted to rattle the Russian leadership, it’s working.
Never, in more than two decades of covering Vladimir Putin’s regime, have I seen it in such an obvious state of chaos and disarray. These days, Kremlin-watchers don’t have to read tea leaves or decode cryptic utterances from the leadership to spot the signs of intrigue — it’s all out in the open, thanks to Putin confidant Yevgeniy Prigozhin.… Seguir leyendo »
Those who argue that Russian President Vladimir Putin should be allowed to keep parts of Ukraine should meet the survivors of his atrocities. They know firsthand the horror of life under Russian occupation. Their stories remind us of what Ukraine is fighting for — and what the free world is standing against.
Anna Zaitseva was a 24-year-old schoolteacher in Mariupol when Russian forces attacked her city in the first days of the invasion in February 2022. She and her 3-month-old son took refuge in the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant, where her husband, Kirilo, worked. A former soldier, Kirilo left his family bunkered there and joined the local defense forces, known as the Azov Regiment.… Seguir leyendo »
“Sauna! Lunch! Delivery!” tempts an advertisement by the side of the road. “Mines” reads a fresher sign just underneath. These red warnings bloom all over the scorched earth of eastern Ukraine.
From our minibus, we see village after village erased by the Russian onslaught — houses burnt with phosphorus, forests mangled with missiles, fields littered with the carcasses of tanks.
We are a team of writers, journalists and scholars united by the literary and human rights organization PEN Ukraine.
We bring aid to the recently liberated towns and villages close to the frontline — but we also bring ourselves to bear witness to Russia’s crimes against our people and our land.… Seguir leyendo »
En el momento de publicarse este artículo, miles de jóvenes ucranios están llevando a cabo sus últimos ejercicios de entrenamiento, revisando sus armas y esperando el Día D. En la gran contraofensiva ucrania que puede comenzar en cualquier momento, algunos morirán y muchos acabarán heridos. Ninguno seguirá siendo el mismo. Creíamos que todo eso había quedado atrás en 1945, pero esta es la Europa de 2023.
Nadie sabe lo que pasará en esta campaña. Nadie. Pero, por lo menos, podemos tener claro lo que queremos que ocurra y ayudar sin titubeos a los ucranios para que lo consigan. Una victoria decisiva de Ucrania es hoy la única vía segura hacia una paz duradera, una Europa libre y, a la larga, una Rusia mejor.… Seguir leyendo »
On April 21, China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, proclaimed that whether Crimea is part of Ukraine “depends on how the problem is perceived”. He added more fuel to the fire by saying that “ex-Soviet countries don’t have an effective status in international law”—questioning not only the sovereignty of Ukraine but also that of over a dozen countries that were part of the Soviet Union. These inflammatory remarks provoked widespread condemnation, with 80 European lawmakers urging the French government to expel Lu. Beijing tried to downplay the situation, stating that Lu was only expressing his personal views.
Five days after Lu made his remarks, Chinese President Xi Jinping went forward with a long-promised phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.… Seguir leyendo »
In an age where large swathes of political debates and developments unfold on social media, platforms such as VKontakte (VK) – the Russian equivalent of Facebook, TikTok, and Telegram are invaluable in examining how ordinary Russians feel about their country’s invasion of Ukraine.
Well over one year into the full-scale invasion, researchers rely on limited channels and resources to bypass Russia’s isolation, heavy monitoring, and censorship. From infantry soldiers to citizens with friends and family on the frontline, social media platforms continue to give an intimate look into the perspectives of people who would otherwise be inaccessible.
The percentage of Russians who have access to social media is not a representative sample of the population as a whole.… Seguir leyendo »
Almost 15 months in, there is an intensifying drumbeat of suggestions that negotiations will be essential to any denouement in Russia’s war on Ukraine — and what’s more, that China could play a key role in bringing an end to the conflict.
Indeed, China this week dispatched its envoy and former ambassador to Russia, Li Hui, to Ukraine, as well as Poland, France, Germany and Russia in an effort to move toward Beijing-mediated “peace talks”.
But Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s indomitable ambassador to the United States, has been largely impervious to any such suggestion of negotiations without one clear end point: liberation of all Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
Twenty-seven years before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in what now seems a very distant past, the European Union considered sanctioning Russia.
In 1995, following Russia’s military intervention in Chechnya, EU leaders suspended the ratification of a planned partnership and cooperation agreement and threatened Moscow with even greater consequences if its war crimes, including the indiscriminate bombing of Chechen civilians, did not stop.
The Boris Yeltsin government dealt with the conflict in Chechnya by unleashing further brutal military force, but Europe eventually backed down and ratified the agreement anyway. In the years that followed, Russia’s leadership went on to dismantle democratic institutions, invade Georgia in 2008 and ignite a war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the prologue to the full-scale invasion of February 2022.… Seguir leyendo »
Las imágenes de los acontecimientos del pasado verano y otoño en el campo de batalla de Ucrania siguen insuflando esperanza a las tropas de Volodimir Zelensky. Pero los gobernantes de Europa y Estados Unidos están retrasando las decisiones que podrían poner fin a la agresión rusa.
Una fuga masiva inesperada de información en un chat de juegos de Discord sorprendió por su profundidad y por la escala de penetración de la inteligencia estadounidense en los planes operativos y estratégicos de los líderes de Ucrania y Rusia.
Gracias a un empleado imprudente de la Guardia Nacional de Estados Unidos, el mundo vio las amplias oportunidades políticas que tiene Washington.… Seguir leyendo »
After months of near-daily coverage on the World War I-style fighting between Ukraine’s army and various Russian units near Bakhmut, the anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive will likely occur soon. How soon? It’s impossible to tell. It could kick off within days or within weeks. Those speculating on exactly when such an attack might take place need to understand the complex challenge facing Ukrainian forces.
As a professional soldier, Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhny knows he holds only two major advantages when going on the offensive: picking the time and the place of the attack. He knows that after launching tens of thousands of soldiers against the Russian army — a force that has been preparing defensive positions for months — it’s impossible to call them back.… Seguir leyendo »
En Ucrania y en torno a ella se libran dos guerras: la que se desarrolla sobre el terreno, y la más grande, que enfrenta a Oriente y Occidente. Un posible escenario es que Ucrania y sus aliados occidentales ganen la primera contra Rusia, y que China salga victoriosa de la segunda, de mayor alcance: la creación de una alianza de países liderada por el gigante asiático, poderosa militarmente, sofisticada técnicamente y próspera económicamente, cuyos miembros se definan a sí mismos por oposición a los valores occidentales. El presidente Xi Jinping declaró al final de su reciente visita a Moscú: “Se están produciendo cambios que no se habían producido en 100 años.… Seguir leyendo »
“¿Qué fuerza produce el movimiento de los pueblos?”, se pregunta Tolstói en el epílogo de Guerra y paz y, al tener en mente las guerras de su época, explica las consecuencias de toda guerra: “Cantidades inmensas de campos se dejan sin labrar, se queman las casas, el comercio cambia de dirección, se arruinan millones de personas, otras se enriquecen, otras tantas tienen que emigrar y millones de cristianos, que profesan la ley del amor al prójimo, se dan muerte unos a otros”. Su novela épica, por encima de su rico y entramado argumento y sus personajes inolvidables, busca explicar precisamente cómo durante los conflictos bélicos la vida continúa, y cómo incluso hace cristalizar los valores y las prioridades.… Seguir leyendo »
In a pine forest on the northern edge of Kyiv one afternoon this month, Senior Sergeant Yaroslav of the Bureviy (“storm”) assault brigade gathered his rookie soldiers for a pep talk.
In no uncertain terms, he outlined the mission ahead of them. “You are being trained to assault, not to defend”, he said. “We will teach you how to attack so that Ukraine will be victorious and you might stay alive”.
The exercise was to storm and clear enemy trenches. Unloaded Kalashnikovs in hand, the troops quickly but cautiously crawled through shrubs and dirt before dropping into the maze of earthworks.… Seguir leyendo »
Its cafes may be buzzing, but the mood in Kyiv is downbeat these days. True, Ukrainians have made it through a winter that brought the economy and society to the brink. The Ukrainian army is holding against grinding Russian pressure. Yet the message from some Western leaders, that Ukraine cannot expect much more support after its spring offensive, seems to have sunk in.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is reaching a crucial moment. In the short term, Ukraine is set to launch its much-anticipated counter-attack. In the longer term, Western leaders need to take hard decisions to address the fact that a democratic and sovereign Ukraine is now part of the West’s fundamental security interest.… Seguir leyendo »
In the 14 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, analysts have expressed recurring doubts about the strength of Europe’s commitments to Kyiv. Through much of 2022, many noted that Germany dragged its feet in supplying arms to Ukrainian forces and took months to come around on tanks. Others have worried that some European countries facing rising energy costs and other economic stresses would curtail their support and press for a negotiated peace with Moscow. Even now, despite a steady flow of weapons and aid to Ukraine, some commentators have suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be calculating that Europe is wavering and that he can simply outlast Kyiv’s Western partners.… Seguir leyendo »
As the Russian winter offensive reaches its culmination, Ukraine is poised to seize the initiative. In the coming weeks, it plans to conduct an offensive operation, or series of offensives, that may prove decisive in this phase of the conflict. This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation. Ukraine is also eager to demonstrate that, despite months of brutal fighting, its military is not exhausted and remains able to break through Russian lines.… Seguir leyendo »
In the Brezhnev era of Vladimir Putin’s youth, May 9 was an occasion for Soviet militarism, a celebration of weapons and might. It could be forgotten, at least for a moment, that Leonid Brezhnev’s war of choice would be fought and lost in Afghanistan less than two decades after he began the May 9 celebrations, much as what is likely Mr. Putin’s last war is today being fought and lost in Ukraine.
During both conflicts, people in the West worried, understandably, about nuclear war.
Today’s Russia issues an unending stream of nuclear threats. In the West today, unlike during the Cold War, these are discussed in psychological rather than strategic terms.… Seguir leyendo »
Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, some of the leading lights in international law have joined Ukrainian and Western officials in calling for the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute the Russian leaders responsible for initiating the brutal, illegal war. The tribunal would be set up specifically to try the crime of aggression—that is, a manifest violation of the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force. The International Criminal Court already has jurisdiction over Russian atrocities committed on Ukrainian territory. But aggression is a different kind of crime: it is about the decision to go to war in the first place rather than unlawful killings or other crimes committed during conflict.… Seguir leyendo »
The announcement was dramatic and the images breathtaking. The Kremlin declared that it had come under attack on Wednesday night, targeted by two drones whose objective it claimed was to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was unharmed.
Moscow accused Ukraine of what it called a “terrorist act”. Ukraine said it had nothing to do with whatever it was that took place that night. (The following day, the Kremlin also accused the US of involvement in the alleged attack, which the US denies).
Video clips on social media showed what looked like drones and a fiery explosion over the Kremlin, its walls already festooned with banners ahead of the May 9th celebration of Victory Day, when Russia commemorates its triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II and displays its military might with parades.… Seguir leyendo »
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