C’est une aspiration qui ne connaît pas de frontières. C’est elle qui avait fait tomber le rideau de fer en 1989. C’est elle qui avait fait manifester, six mois durant, les Iraniens en 2009. C’est encore elle qui avait suscité les printemps arabes de 2011 dont la force et le provisoire échec rappellent tellement le printemps européen de 1848. C’est toujours elle qui avait soulevé Hongkong avant de donner le courage aux Biélorusses de défier leur despote depuis trois semaines et cette aspiration à la liberté vient annoncer, n’en doutons pas, le réveil d’une Russie qu’on sent si lasse du retour en arrière qu’elle vit depuis trop longtemps.… Seguir leyendo »
Bielorrusia (o, más correctamente, Belarús) ya es otra. El bastión del inmovilismo postsoviético, el país que parecía alérgico al cambio, ha despertado por fin. A pesar de la brutalidad de la represión, una cantidad inédita de gente se ha echado a las calles de todo el país para decir basta. Las protestas además son socialmente transversales y llegan a las fábricas y al campo, más allá de las élites urbanas. No son las primeras manifestaciones de descontento, pero sí las primeras de esta magnitud y profundidad. En los últimos años varias señales sugerían un malestar creciente e indicaban que, pese a su fama de conformista, la sociedad bielorrusa quería cambios.… Seguir leyendo »
Enormes protestas se extendieron por Bielorrusia desde que Aleksandr Lukashenko afirmó fraudulentamente que había ganado con el 80 % de los votos la elección presidencial del 9 de agosto. Es posible que el futuro del país dependa ahora del presidente ruso Vladímir Putin.
Lukashenko gobierna Bielorrusia desde 1994, no le ha faltado apoyo popular e incluso recibió el apodo de Batka (padre), pero en las últimas semanas se sumaron a las protestas y huelgas enfurecidos ciudadanos de todos los sectores de la sociedad —entre ellos obreros, médicos y periodistas— y repentinamente jóvenes mujeres encabezaron la oposición. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya —la exmaestra que para muchos ganó las elecciones— no está organizando las protestas, pero su determinación canaliza el amplio descontento.… Seguir leyendo »
For years, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been taunting Moscow. He promised that Belarus will never become part of Russia. He blamed the Kremlin for attempting to incorporate its neighbor using oil and gas leverage. Most recently, he accused Russian mercenaries of plotting “terrorism” ahead of the presidential election. Separately, he claimed that he had thwarted a Russian-orchestrated plot to foment revolution. “The puppeteers,” according to the Belarusian leader, “sat on both sides of the border.”
Now everything has changed. Facing an unprecedented popular uprising, Lukashenko has turned to Moscow for help. As his 26-year rule is rocked by massive protests and strikes, Lukashenko has called on his closest ally and principal benefactor, Vladimir Putin, to provide military support if the situation continues to escalate.… Seguir leyendo »
Europe’s two remaining dictators, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Vladimir Putin of Russia, have always had an uneasy relationship. Yet despite their personal animosity, their regimes have depended on each other in important ways. Over the years Minsk has received support from Russia in the form of cheap energy and export markets, while the Kremlin has used Belarus as a model for its own authoritarian consolidation.
Lukashenko had a five-year head start. After coming to power in a free election in the mid-1990s, he succeeded in dismantling democracy by the end of that decade. His government silenced independent media outlets and cleansed the opposition from parliament.… Seguir leyendo »
Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus, is facing the biggest threat of his 26-year reign. An extraordinary popular revolt has brought his regime to the brink of collapse — something that Vladimir Putin, mortally afraid of democratic contagion from a “color revolution” in his western neighbor, can hardly countenance.
Yet as startling as it might seem, the turbulence in Belarus also gives Russia’s president an opportunity — one he could seize with a high-stakes display of brazen military aggression that could go beyond merely cracking down in Belarus. Perhaps the most frightening scenario: an invasion of Lithuania. The Baltic republic, which shares a 420-mile border with Belarus, is a member of both the European Union and NATO.… Seguir leyendo »
Amid outrage and revulsion at Belarus’s fraudulent election and the subsequent savage repression of protests, Western responses must be planned with half an eye on Russia. Not just for what is often described as the risk of ‘driving Belarus into Russia’s arms’ but also for the danger of unilateral Russian action, with or without Belarusian acquiescence.
In the past six years, there have been endless discussions of what might prompt another Russian military intervention in Europe after Ukraine. In many of these scenarios, it is precisely the situation currently unfolding in Belarus that has been top of the list, with all the wide-ranging implications for security of the continent as a whole that would follow.… Seguir leyendo »
Two December meetings between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenka failed to deliver Moscow’s hopes of securing Minsk’s acceptance of closer alignment between Russia and Belarus.
Over the past year, relations between Belarus and Russia have been under unprecedented strain as Moscow has tried to encourage Minsk to sign up to a different format of relations designed to keep Belarus firmly in a Russian orbit. Details of the negotiations have remained secret, yet issues on the table appear to include unification of tax and customs systems, a common energy regulator and joint governing bodies.
The Kremlin believes that Belarus needs to deliver more in return for Russia’s continued economic support, worth around $10 billion per year.… Seguir leyendo »
Earlier this year, there was intense speculation in Moscow that the Kremlin was looking at putting flesh on the bones of the Union State as a platform for President Putin to stay in office after 2024 as leader of a Russian-Belarusian confederation. The joint state has only existed on paper since its formal establishment in 1999.
The ‘integration plan’ negotiated by the ministers of the economy of Russia and Belarus falls far short of establishing a single monetary, banking and customs system as foreseen in the original Union State Treaty. The draft agreement focuses on a more modest range of economic integration measures including a single tax code, a single regulator for the energy markets and deepening of common customs policies.… Seguir leyendo »
Earlier this year, several public figures sounded that alarm, including former NATO general secretary Anders Rasmussen and Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum. That concern clashes with the idea that Belarus is Russia’s closest ally.
So where did they get that idea? Over the past four months, the Kremlin has been proposing closer ties within the Union State of Russia and Belarus, an agreement that aims toward deeper integration between the two. That treaty was signed in 1997 — but has had few tangible results. Some Russian elites are rumoring that creating a fully functioning union might enable Vladimir Putin to stay in power after he reaches his term limit as president in 2024.… Seguir leyendo »
Following seven days of "military operations", the fictional country of "Veshnoriya" (with a geography similar to that of the Baltic States) was forced into submission by Russian and Belarusian joint forces.
In a grand display, the "Union State" of Russia and Belarus destroyed the enemy after Veshnoriya tried to stage border incursions and massive air raids.
This scenario was, of course, played out in Russia and Belarus during the Zapad-2017 military exercise. But what were the key takeaways for the watching world?
Small is beautiful
Western commentators were obsessed with the numbers of Russian troops being mobilized during the course of exercise and stuck firmly to the "100,000 servicemen" narrative.… Seguir leyendo »
Ces derniers temps, il m’est arrivé à plusieurs reprises de croiser sur la route Minsk-Vilnius des convois de poids lourds siglés « ministère de l’intérieur de Biélorussie ». Je ne pensais pas que le ministère de l’intérieur pouvait avoir de tels besoins logistiques. Les camions allaient dans la direction de « Veyshnoria », un territoire rebelle fictif situé au nord-ouest de la Biélorussie aux frontières lituanienne et polonaise, inventé par les états-majors de la défense russe et biélorusse dans le cadre de l’exercice militaire « Zapad 2017 » [Ouest 2017].
Questionnements légitimes
Formellement, cet exercice a débuté le 14 septembre et devrait se dérouler jusqu’au 20 sur le territoire biélorusse et dans l’ouest de la Russie, ainsi que dans la Baltique.… Seguir leyendo »
L’exercice stratégique conjoint des forces russes et biélorusses « Zapad 2017 » [« Ouest 2017 »] a suscité une vague d’inquiétude sans précédent et attiré une fois de plus l’attention sur la Biélorussie. Coincée entre l’Union européenne [UE] et la Russie, la Biélorussie apparaît rarement dans les médias occidentaux et, lorsque c’est le cas, elle est presque systématiquement qualifiée de « dernière dictature européenne », avec ses prisonniers politiques et ses violations permanentes des droits de l’homme.
Libéralisation politique
La situation a commencé à changer un peu à la suite des accords de Minsk, dans lesquels la Biélorussie a joué un rôle significatif pour la résolution du conflit ukrainien.… Seguir leyendo »
As Russia prepares for its annual strategic military exercises, speculation is mounting that the Zapad-2017 war games, set for Thursday through Sept. 20 in western Russia and Belarus, might be a prelude to war. Ukraine’s defense minister cautioned that Zapad could be a ruse to attack any European country “that shares a border with Russia”, while the New York Times proclaimed that the drills near NATO’s borders have raised “fears of aggression”. A CNN contributor wondered, “Could they turn into war?”
My analysis of Russia’s recent war games suggests that this is highly unlikely. The Russian military is preparing for war, but that is what generals in all countries do — prepare for worst-case scenarios, and carry out large-scale exercises to test the military’s readiness for them.… Seguir leyendo »
Rusia y Bielorrusia han anunciado Zapad-2017, maniobras militares entre el 14 y 20 de septiembre en el Mar Báltico, Kaliningrado, Rusia occidental y Bielorrusia.
Resumen
El anuncio de las maniobras Zapad-2017 (zapad en ruso significa “oeste”) ha levantado entre los analistas occidentales la sospecha de que Moscú podría usarlas para atacar a un país miembro de la OTAN. Aunque la invasión de Georgia en 2008 y la anexión de Crimea en 2014 contaron con efectivos que estaban realizando entrenamientos militares, actualmente Rusia no aspira a emprender nuevas aventuras bélicas (y menos contra un país de la Alianza Atlántica) sino a reducir el conflicto en Ucrania para revertir las sanciones impuestas por EEUU y la UE, desactivar la retórica anti-rusa y socavar a los que advierten de las intenciones agresivas del Kremlin.… Seguir leyendo »
In Russia and neighbouring Belarus, preparations are underway for Zapad - a major military exercise to be held in September. The two countries' Western neighbours are worried. Zapad is Russian for 'West', and of all the different major exercises in the Russian military calendar, it causes the most excitement and concern because it is the one that most closely resembles practice for invading those neighbours.
As a result, this regular event receives a lot more attention than other Russian manoeuvers of similar size. Held every four years, the exercise can even develop its own mythology: much of the Western coverage said that the 2009 exercise ended with a simulated nuclear attack on Warsaw, Poland, even though there is no evidence at all from unclassified sources to suggest this was the case.… Seguir leyendo »
“Moscú no tiene intención de ocupar Belarús” declaró en febrero de 2017 el presidente bielorruso, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, tres días después de que Rusia instalara controles a lo largo de su frontera con el único país con el que tiene un Tratado de Unión. Esta afirmación se suma a las voces de alarma de expertos nacionales y algunos internacionales que sospechan de posibles planes de Moscú para derrocar a Lukashenka, valiéndose de organizaciones sociales fervientemente prorrusas, como asociaciones de veteranos o de cosacos, círculos de la Iglesia Ortodoxa, clubes militares, campamentos juveniles, etc. Todo ello da muestra de las preocupaciones que planean sobre la capital del país considerado el aliado más fiel de Moscú.… Seguir leyendo »
« Ce qui arrive »… C’est ainsi que s’intitulait l’exposition conçue par Paul Virilio, à la Fondation Cartier, en 2002. Une invitation à se pencher sur les accidents industriels du XXe siècle, pour montrer les conséquences inévitables de notre course effrénée vers un avenir prospère.
Parmi ces accidents majeurs, la catastrophe de Tchernobyl occupe une place à part, car elle interpelle radicalement nos notions d’espace et de temps, sans même parler des conséquences sanitaires pour les 8 millions de personnes, dont 2 millions d’enfants, qui vivent toujours dans les territoires contaminés de la Russie, de l’Ukraine et de la Biélorussie.… Seguir leyendo »
Russia has announced that it has set up a joint air defence system with Belarus.
As with so many joint projects between Moscow and Minsk, this appears to be a Russian idea that could remain largely on paper without Belarusian cooperation. But it does create an opportunity that Russia could exploit if relations with NATO and the West deteriorate further.
The significant point is not the announcement, but whether and how it is implemented. A notional joint air defence system between Russia and Belarus is a very old idea, and plans for the current incarnation date back to 2009. It's not unique: previous announcements like this have been made with respect to Kazakhstan, for instance.… Seguir leyendo »
The inauguration of Vladimir Putin as president for the third time had the air of a bad Russian hangover. On one side there was the tolling of the Kremlin bells, the parade, the gilded halls, the secret transfer of the nuclear suitcase, the blessing of the Patriarch, the ringing applause — like a slap to the face — of the courtiers, lackeys and international lobbyists; on the other side, a gloomy day after a ruthless, bloody fight.
For the first time in perhaps all Russian history, the installation of the principal leader came the day after a brutal crackdown, as the police dispersed Putin’s opponents.… Seguir leyendo »
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