The new face of Iran we anticipated seeing at the United Nations last week sounded and looked quite similar to the old face of Iran we have come to know.
We expected a charm offensive. We readied ourselves for a possible diplomatic breakthrough. But we were left underwhelmed.
For weeks now, we have followed the rhetoric originating from Iran. We had been cautiously hopeful.
As proponents of a series of bipartisan bills legislating sanctions targeting Iran’s oil and banking industries and lawmakers who have worked with our European allies to isolate Iran from international financial markets, we understand full well the result of crippling sanctions.… Seguir leyendo »
As Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new president, called on renewed dialogue to deal with the uranium-enrichment program, there are concerns that his approach will not be met by the United States. If this occurs, another important opportunity will have been missed with Iran, increasing the chances of confrontation.
“If you seek a suitable answer, speak to Iran through the language of respect, not through the language of sanctions,” said Rouhani.
The naming of Mohammad Javad Zarif as his foreign minister suggests the new president’s intention to break the 34-year stalemate between the Islamic Republic and the U.S. As stated in the memoirs of former U.N.… Seguir leyendo »
Iran’s newly elected president, Hasan Rouhani, officially took office Sunday and, with the blessing of the supreme leader, promised moderation. Don’t believe it.
Mr. Rouhani’s election was orchestrated by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a specific mission: buy time so the Islamic regime can complete its nuclear-weapons program, according to a former intelligence officer who defected to a Scandinavian country.
A second goal is to persuade the United States to relieve some of the crippling sanctions as a sign of good faith. Iran’s economic situation has deteriorated to the point that officials have warned of the possibility of food rationing. Inflation is rampant, and unemployment growing.… Seguir leyendo »
For the first time since 2009, there may be signs of a break in the deadlock over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran entered the latest talks with a slightly softened position. That is good news, but the United States will have to change its negotiating strategy to take advantage of it.
Economic sanctions are biting hard in Iran. Meanwhile, its strategic position is crumbling because of the turmoil in its ally Syria and the rise of militant Sunni Islamism throughout the Arab Middle East. Together, these forces seem to have forced Iran to reconsider its own bargaining position.
So rather than strengthen sanctions another notch, America should give Iran a little tit for tat: begin negotiating directly, and put on the table the prospect of lifting sanctions, one by one, as bargaining chips.… Seguir leyendo »
Patients in Iran are dying of treatable diseases because of shortages in life-saving medicines. The past year has been nothing short of catastrophic for the Iranian health-care sector: Imports from American and European drug makers in 2012 were down by an estimated 30 percent since 2011, and they continue to fall.
Over the past three months, I led a group of independent business consultants with expertise in Iran to evaluate the problem. After conducting extensive interviews in Tehran and Dubai with Iranian importers and manufacturers of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment and their Western counterparts, we concluded that even though in theory the sanctions regime imposed on Iran by the United States and the European Union is supposed to allow humanitarian trade, in reality it impairs the delivery of drugs and medical equipment to Iran.… Seguir leyendo »
Western sanctions are making life difficult in Iran, but at least the West does provide some comic relief to the beleaguered regime. They must be laughing.The picture of the gray-faced Ahmadinejad cracking a smile, and the dour Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei shaking with laughter beneath his robe, came to me as I accidentally stumbled on a headline from 2006, “Annan: Iran Seriously Considering Nuclear Offer.”
The story, as the title suggests, explains that the then-United Nations Secretary General was feeling optimistic. After meeting with the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister, he thought Tehran was just about to agree to an “incentives package” offered by the Europeans, through their foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, to persuade Iran to stop enriching uranium.… Seguir leyendo »
As diplomacy once more reclaims its place in U.S.-Iran relations, a peculiar psychological barrier continues to bedevil prospects of a settlement.
The great powers are busy imposing sanctions on Iran that they will amend only if Tehran dismantles key aspects of its nuclear program. In the meantime, Iran is hesitant to make concessions, aware that the expansion of its nuclear capability enhances its bargaining power. In the search of negotiating advantage, neither side is willing to part with what they consider to be their leverage.
The best means of breaking this vicious cycle is not to search for a grand deal, but a limited one that breaches the wall of mistrust and potentially sets the stage for further-reaching arms control measures.… Seguir leyendo »
To stop Iran achieving "critical capability" to produce nuclear weapons in the coming months, President Obama must impose "maximal" sanctions – that is the message of a new report issued in Washington by five senior non-proliferation specialists.
They call on Obama to implement a de facto international embargo on all investments in, and trade with, Iran, declaring: "A successful outcome in any negotiations with Iran depends on the immediate implementation of these sanctions, along with simultaneously reinforcing the credibility of President Obama's threat to use military force, if necessary, to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons."
Although the report is the work of The Project on US Middle East Nonproliferation Strategy – and is supposedly about nonproliferation – its authors have concentrated on punitive measures against Iran, and none against Israel.… Seguir leyendo »
Just a few days ago, Mansour J. Arbabsiar pleaded guilty to working with Iran’s Quds force to carry out an attack on U.S. soil and assassinate a foreign diplomat stationed in Washington. Earlier this month, Hezbollah, a terrorist proxy of the Iranian regime, reportedly launched an Iranian-supplied drone that penetrated Israel’s airspace before being shot down. Late last month, the Iranian navy launched four missiles as a show of force and its capacity to shut down access to the Persian Gulf. These are just a few examples of how the Iranian threat has become more dangerous since the Obama administration took office.… Seguir leyendo »
Iran's oil output has tumbled to the lowest level in 23 years, the International Energy Agency reported Friday. This is the work of the tightening sanctions around Iran. The effects upon the Iranian economy have been dramatic.
Over the past year, Iran's oil output has dropped by about 1 million barrels a day; Iran's oil revenues have declined by 60% over those same 12 months. This is the cause of the collapse of the Iranian currency. The rial traded at 12,000 to the dollar at the beginning of 2010. Today the rial trades at about 35,000 to the dollar, when it trades at all.… Seguir leyendo »
The continuing currency crisis in Iran, which has seen the rial go into freefall, has been cited, with some celebration in certain quarters, as proving that US-led sanctions are "working" against Tehran. Increasingly shut out from international banking and struggling to sell its oil, Iran has been forced to sell more cheaply while buying raw materials at a higher cash price. This, in turn, has led to currency speculation that the government has done nothing to halt, and to sharp devaluation.
But what does "sanctions are working" actually mean? Some hawks have read it as the possible beginning of the end for Iran's nuclear programme and the collapse of the clerical regime.… Seguir leyendo »
Recent revelations from the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has both continued and expanded its uranium enrichment activities have focused attention anew on U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic — and what more can be done to stop Iran’s march toward the bomb.
This is, necessarily, a conversation about sanctions. Given the advanced state of Iran’s nuclear program and the growing possibility that third parties — namely, Israel — might resort to force to stop it, it stands to reason that the full arsenal of U.S. economic and financial sanctions would be deployed against the Iranian threat. Yet it has not been.… Seguir leyendo »
Tema: Desde junio de 2012, EEUU sanciona las transacciones de crudo a través del Banco Central de Irán, y desde julio del mismo año la UE ha dejado de comprar petróleo iraní y prohibido asegurar sus fletes. Las nuevas medidas tienen implicaciones energéticas y de seguridad que elevan el escenario de tensión entre Irán y quienes le sancionan para evitar que se convierta en una potencia nuclear militar.
Resumen: El 18 y 19 de junio terminó sin resultados en Moscú la tercera ronda de negociaciones entre representantes del G5+1, liderados por Catherine Ashton, y de Irán, reanudadas en abril (Estambul) y en mayo (Bagdad) tras 15 meses de parón.… Seguir leyendo »
Imagine if your ethnicity determined which products you were able to buy. Or if sales clerks required you to divulge your ancestry before swiping your credit card.
Some of us don’t have to imagine.
Last month, Sahar Sabet, a 19-year-old Iranian-American woman, was improperly prevented from buying an iPad at an Apple store in Alpharetta, Ga. After she had gone over the various options with two Apple sales clerks, a third clerk, who had overheard Ms. Sabet speaking Persian to her uncle, intervened. He asked what language they were speaking and, when he found out it was the language of Iran, he said she could not buy anything because “our countries do not have good relations” — never mind that she intended to give it to her sister in North Carolina.… Seguir leyendo »
Predictably, last week’s “expert level” talks between Iran and world powers were no more fruitful than previous rounds, leaving little optimism for a negotiated resolution to the nuclear crisis anytime soon. Western policymakers, buoyed by their success in reducing Iran’s oil exports , appear content to give sanctions more time to work, in the hope that once Tehran feels their full effect negotiators will return to the table, more ready to compromise.
The evidence, however, suggests that sanctions’ effect on oil exports will not increase over time.
First, Western policymakers tend to focus more on what Iran has lost than what it has retained or gained.… Seguir leyendo »
As economic sanctions on Iran tighten, we will find out if that nation's quest for nuclear weapons can be stopped. Sanctions worked on South Africa — so why not Iran?
Here's why not: Very few South African whites were willing to die for apartheid. Most aspired to a normal, bourgeois life and understood their system of racial oppression could no longer be legitimated or sustained.
In contrast, Iran is ruled by messianic leaders who believe apocalyptic struggle against the Great and Little Satans — "a war of Islam against blasphemy," according to Ayatollah Khomeini — is the path to utopia. The belief in the return of the 12th, or hidden, imam will not be undone by the falling value of the rial.… Seguir leyendo »
The latest Iran sanctions came into full effect this week, adding to a byzantine array of unilateral and multilateral measures that prohibit Iranian oil imports, other trade and financial transactions, and freeze Iranian assets by countries concerned that Tehran's nuclear program is intended for military purposes, not civilian ones.
The international community is now on watch for cracks in Iran's defiant stance: Will increased sanctions compel Tehran to make real concessions and allow for a diplomatic solution to the standoff? This characterization is too simplistic, however, and the record suggests there may be some reasons to be optimistic that current sanctions on Iran will deliver.… Seguir leyendo »
The last round of nuclear negotiations with Iran ended in stalemate, and prospects appear dim for a breakthrough at next week’s meeting in Moscow.
Two central factors are driving Washington’s negotiation strategy at this point. The first is Congressional obstructionism and President Obama’s limited room to maneuver in an election year. The second is outsize expectations about what the current sanctions against Iran can achieve. Both must be abandoned if talks are to succeed.
Mr. Obama needs a continuing diplomatic process to calm the oil markets because of the coming election. Yet, precisely because of the election, he has limited ability to offer the Iranians relief from sanctions in return for nuclear concessions.… Seguir leyendo »
There's an old saying, attributed to the British Foreign Office in colonial days: “Keep the Persians hungry, and the Arabs fat.” For the British — then the stewards of Persian destiny — that was the formula for maintaining calm; it still is for Saudi Arabian leaders, who simply distribute large amounts of cash to their citizens at the first sign of unrest at their doorstep.
But in the case of Iran, neither America nor Britain seems to be observing the old dictum. Keeping the Persians hungry was a guarantee that they wouldn’t rise up against their masters. Today, the fervent wish of the West appears to be that they do exactly that.… Seguir leyendo »
L’embargo sur les importations de pétrole iranien et les sanctions contre la Banque centrale iranienne prononcés par les ministres des Affaires étrangères de l’Union européenne, le 24 janvier dernier, sont intervenus après plusieurs semaines de fièvre galopante impliquant l’Iran, Israël et les Etats-Unis: manœuvres militaires iraniennes dans le golfe Persique, menace de Téhéran de fermer le détroit d’Ormuz, tests de missile menés avec ostentation par les Israéliens, meurtre d’un scientifique nucléaire iranien et innombrables déclarations politiques envisageant la possibilité, et parfois même la nécessité, de procéder à des frappes militaires contre l’Iran.
Les propos les plus modérés sont avant tout venus de la part de ceux qui connaissent les conséquences de la menée d’une guerre: ainsi, le chef des services secrets israéliens a fait comprendre que l’Iran représentait, certes, une menace pour Israël, mais non un danger existentiel.… Seguir leyendo »
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