By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 11/10/06):
"Present at the Creation" was the title Dean Acheson gave to his memoir about the founding of the post-World War II order. Now, with North Korea claiming to have tested a nuclear weapon in defiance of the international community, and Iran seemingly on the way, Harvard professor Graham Allison argues that we are present at the unraveling.
The North Korean bomb test is a seismic event for the world community. It tells us that the structure created to maintain global security is failing. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France -- all warned North Korea against taking this step.… Seguir leyendo »
By William J. Perry, secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997 (THE WASHINGTON POST, 11/10/06):
North Korea's declared nuclear bomb test program will increase the incentives for other nations to go nuclear, will endanger security in the region and could ultimately result in nuclear terrorism. While this test is the culmination of North Korea's long-held aspiration to become a nuclear power, it also demonstrates the total failure of the Bush administration's policy toward that country. For almost six years this policy has been a strange combination of harsh rhetoric and inaction.
President Bush, early in his first term, dubbed North Korea a member of the "axis of evil" and made disparaging remarks about Kim Jong Il.… Seguir leyendo »
By Jimmy Carter, the 39th president, is the founder of the Carter Center and the winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 11/10/06):
IN 1994 the North Koreans expelled inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency and were threatening to process spent nuclear fuel into plutonium, giving them the ability to produce nuclear weapons.
With the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula, there was a consensus that the forces of South Korea and the United States could overwhelmingly defeat North Korea. But it was also known that North Korea could quickly launch more than 20,000 shells and missiles into nearby Seoul.… Seguir leyendo »
So what now? North Korea is the fourth, possibly fifth, state to have rejected the 1970 non-proliferation treaty and proceeded towards a nuclear arsenal. The others are India, Pakistan, Israel and perhaps Iran. That makes five states in the old nuclear club (America, Russia, Britain, France and China) and five in the new one. The appropriate relationship, diplomatic, military and moral, between the two clubs is now a consuming world obsession.
There is no easy answer. If strategically secure countries such as Britain and France want nuclear missiles as an ultimate line of defence, why not Iran and North Korea?… Seguir leyendo »
KIM JONG IL has squandered the wild card that has kept the world at bay: fear of the damage that this utterly ruthless and unpredictable tyrant could inflict if his grip on power began to disintegrate.
By turning nuclear threat into nuclear reality, he has stood the instability equation on its head. He has so badly upset the Asian applecart by this action that, not only to the US and Japan, but crucially also to North Korea’s Chinese and South Korean neighbours, it has begun to look even more dangerous to leave the Dear Leader in place than to start trying to engineer his fall.… Seguir leyendo »
By Selig S. Harrison, a former Post bureau chief in Northeast Asia, is the director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy and the author of "Korean Endgame" (THE WASHINGTON POST, 10/10/06):
"You have learned to live with other nuclear powers," said Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan, North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator, leaning forward over the dinner table in Pyongyang. "So why not us? We really want to coexist with the United States peacefully, but you must learn to coexist with a North Korea that has nuclear weapons."
"That doesn't sound like you are serious when you talk about denuclearization," I replied.… Seguir leyendo »
By David Frum, a speechwriter for President Bush from 2001 to 2002, is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the co-author of 'An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror' (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 10/10/06):
THE North Korean nuclear test — if that indeed is what it was — signals the catastrophic collapse of a dozen years of American policy. Over that period, two of the world’s most dangerous regimes, Pakistan and North Korea, have developed nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them. Iran, arguably the most dangerous of them all, will surely follow, unless some dramatic action is soon taken.… Seguir leyendo »
By Dan Plesch, a fellow at the School of Oriental and African Studies and Keele University, is the author of The Beauty Queen's Guide to World Peace (THE GUARDIAN, 10/10/06):
North Korea's nuclear test is only the latest failure of the west's proliferation policy. And it demonstrates the need to return to the proven methods of multilateral disarmament. Far from being crazy, the North Korean policy is quite rational. Faced with a US government that believes the communist regime should be removed from the map, the North Koreans pressed ahead with building a deterrent. George Bush stopped the oil supplies to North Korea that had been part of a framework to end its nuclear programme previously agreed with Bill Clinton.… Seguir leyendo »
A barrage of condemnation did little to disguise the weakness of the international community's position yesterday after North Korea finally crossed the line and apparently proved that it is what it has long claimed to be: a nuclear weapons state. The big powers can huff and puff but there is not a lot new in practical terms that they can do. The explosion was expected. They simply couldn't stop it.The six-party talks process involving North Korea's neighbours and the US that went off the rails last year has now hit a brick wall. Sanctions are the obvious tool to which the US, Japan and other concerned spectators such as Britain will resort.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Ángel Rupérez, escritor y profesor de Teoría de la Literatura en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (EL PAÍS, 26/09/06):
Cualquiera que visite -como yo lo he hecho este verano- la ciudad de Hiroshima no dejará de conmoverse por miles de razones, y casi todas ellas tienen que ver con la terrible desgracia que esa ciudad vivió el 6 de agosto de 1946: un bombardero americano arrojó sobre ella al amanecer la primera bomba atómica (parecido suplicio sufriría tres días después Nagasaki). Sea la que sea la interpretación que se haga de ese hecho -y no todas coinciden-, hay una evidencia que nadie puede negar y que resulta estremecedoramente dolorosa todavía hoy, 60 años después.… Seguir leyendo »
North Korea's political paranoia spilled into the open this week when the isolated regime accused the US of plotting a nuclear strike. The state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper said a "sub-critical" underground nuclear test in Nevada last month was part of Washington's efforts to develop new nuclear weapons. "The US is perfecting a nuclear war plan after listing our and other countries as targets for its pre-emptive nuclear attack," it said.An American assault is not remotely on the cards. But North Korea's clamour reflects more than its leadership's persecution complex. In Seoul the claim was read as possible evidence that the North is preparing to justify an imminent nuclear test of its own.… Seguir leyendo »
THIS MONTH marks the 25th anniversary of the founding of the women’s peace camp at Greenham Common. Supporters have paid tribute. “The Greenham women and other protesters stopped the development of a new generation of nuclear weapons in Europe,” according to Clare Short. They were “exactly the kind of people who would have formed part of a resistance against Fascism and totalitarianism”, declared Julie Christie. Even sceptics recall the campaigners much as 1066 and All That describes the Royalists.
But the Greenham women were not “wrong but wromantic”. They were wrong and wridiculous. Every one of their claims about cruise and Pershing missiles was either demonstrably false at the time or has been refuted by history.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Kenneth M. Pollack, escritor y director de investigación del Centro Saban para la Política en Oriente Próximo en la Brookings Institution. Su última obra publicada es El puzzle persa. El conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán (EL MUNDO, 11/09/06):
Cuando las Torres Gemelas se vinieron abajo, Irán lloró con Estados Unidos. Los iraníes llevaron a cabo vigilias espontáneas a la luz de las velas para mostrar su solidaridad con el pueblo norteamericano. Muchos iraníes, y al menos una parte de sus dirigentes, deseaban una relación mejor con la gran potencia. Sin embargo, de aquel momento ya no queda nada, y ello ha traído consecuencias que, indirectamente, llegan hasta la carnicería que se acaba de perpetrar en Israel y el Líbano y hasta la crisis internacional que se ha desatado en torno al programa nuclear iraní.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Brahma Chellaney, profesor de Estudios Estratégicos en el Centro de Investigación Política, instituto privado de Nueva Delhi. Traducción: Juan Gabriel López Guix (LA VANGUARDIA, 11/09/06):
No hay mejor ilustración de la forma en que la política internacional moldea las cuestiones relativas a la proliferación nuclear que las respuestas opuestas dadas por el Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas a los dos últimos casos: un decreto excesivamente severo contra Irán para que deje de hacer lo que Teherán considera que tiene todo el derecho a hacer y el trato excepcionalmente indulgente otorgado a Pakistán, a pesar del descubrimiento en el mercado negro nuclear de una importante red dirigida por científicos, militares y funcionarios de los servicios de inteligencia de ese país.… Seguir leyendo »
By Donald Gregg, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and currently chairman of the Korea Society and Don Oberdorfer, a former diplomatic correspondent for The Post and currently chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (THE WASHINGTON POST, 06/09/2006):
The Bush administration is preparing to implement a new set of comprehensive sanctions against North Korea in response to its recent ballistic missile tests. This would be a grave mistake, likely to lift the already dangerous situation on the Korean Peninsula to a new level of tension. Imposing such sanctions at this time could bring about more of the very actions the United States opposes.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Mateo Madridejos, periodista e historiador (EL PERIÓDICO, 06/09/06):
Expirado el ultimátum de la ONU el 31 de agosto, el Gobierno de Teherán insiste ante Kofi Annan en proseguir con su programa de enriquecimiento del uranio, necesario para el arma nuclear, luego de que el presidente iraní, Mahmud Ahmadineyad, alardeara de poseer la costosa tecnología. El Consejo de Seguridad se encuentra, como era previsible, ante el atolladero del reto renovado de Irán, pero lo más probable es que no cumpla su amenaza de imponer sanciones inmediatas al régimen teocrático, incluso si con la demora corre el riesgo de perder parte de su credibilidad.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Mábel González Bustelo, responsable de desarme de Greenpeace (EL MUNDO, 01/09/06):
La cuestión del programa nuclear iraní se está abordando de forma equivocada. Es preocupante que nuevos países accedan a armas nucleares, pero nadie ha demostrado que éste sea el propósito de Irán y se están aplicando a este país parámetros que no se aplican a otros.
El problema son las contradicciones de la comunidad internacional al abordar las cuestiones de desarme y no proliferación, y la insuficiencia de las normativas internacionales al respecto.
La verdadera cuestión a abordar es la configuración del Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear (TNP), que en su artículo cuatro establece el «derecho inalienable» de todos los países a la energía nuclear.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Shahram Chubin, director de investigación del Centro de Investigación de Políticas de Seguridad, Ginebra, y autor de Iran´s nuclear ambitions (Carnegie Endowment, agosto de 2006). Traducción: Laura Manero Jiménez (LA VANGUARDIA, 14/08/06):
El culebrón del programa nuclear de Irán se prolonga ya desde hace tres años y no parece acercarse a su resolución. Durante todo este tiempo, las políticas regionales activistas del país - como en Líbano Hezbollah- han amenazado con agravar la inestabilidad antes aun de que Irán se convierta en potencia nuclear. Un Irán con capacidad nuclear, más seguro y enérgico, representaría un temible desafío para las políticas occidentales y la estabilidad de la región.… Seguir leyendo »
La atención mundial está centrada en los combates en el Líbano y en la Franja de Gaza, pero el contexto nos devuelve inevitablemente a Irán. Por desgracia, la diplomacia encargada de ese asunto se ve constantemente desbordada por los acontecimientos. Mientras los explosivos llueven sobre ciudades libanesas y hebreas, e Israel recupera parte de Gaza, la propuesta de negociar sobre el programa de armamento nuclear hecha a Irán el pasado mayo por los denominados Seis (Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Francia, Alemania, Rusia y China), sigue pendiente de respuesta. Es posible que Teherán interprete el tono casi suplicante de algunas comunicaciones recibidas como un signo de debilidad o irresolución.… Seguir leyendo »
By James Jay Carafano, a senior research fellow for National Security and Homeland Security at The Heritage Foundation and co-author of the book "Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom." (THE WASHINGTON POST, 26/07/06):
No, the United States isn't immune to nuclear attack. But you can bet it's not going to come courtesy of the Taepodong-2 missile the North Koreans fired recently.
North Korea has yet to demonstrate that it has a long-range missile that can shoot straight. The Taepodong-2 barely got off the pad -- and that's eight years after the last test, which also failed.… Seguir leyendo »
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