Chatham House

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del periódico incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de septiembre de 2006.

Nota informativa: Chatham House, fundado en 1920, es una organización no gubernamental, sin ánimo de lucro, con sede en Londres, cuya misión es analizar y promover la comprensión de los principales asuntos internacionales y asuntos de actualidad. Todos sus contenidos son de acceso libre, aunque se puede apoyar su trabajo con una contribución económica.

President-elect Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France on December 07, 2024. (Photo by Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign boast that he could finish the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has increased expectations of an imminent ceasefire. But without credible Western security guarantees agreed beforehand, a ceasefire would be a prelude to a bigger disaster.

Proponents say that Trump’s threat to halt or decrease military assistance to Kyiv, while simultaneously warning Russia that he could give Ukraine all it needs on the battlefield, will bring both sides to the negotiating table. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated in a recent interview that Putin is afraid of Trump, and that peace can be achieved through strength.

Support for ending the war

Among Ukrainians, support for ending the war is growing.…  Seguir leyendo »

Eurofighter Typhoon jets from the UK's Royal Air Force at Murted Air Base in Ankara on December 18, 2024. (Photo by Turkish Defense Ministry / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad

With Donald Trump’s forthcoming inauguration, the question of the future of the European security order has become more pressing – and so has the need for clarity about Turkey’s place and role within that order. In this respect, Trump’s return might provide much needed impetus for the European Union (EU) and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and on broader foreign and security policy cooperation.

Europe’s security environment has undergone a radical transformation in recent years. After the Ukraine war, the once prevalent idea of a security order that included Russia has been replaced by one that places Moscow firmly in the adversary camp.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Carter sits at his desk in the White House before addressing the nation on his energy proposals, on 18 April, 1977. (Photo credit: Bettmann / Contributor via Getty Images).

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A legacy beyond the White House

Jimmy Carter will be remembered for many things, but his post-presidency work to advance peace, democracy, human rights, and freedom from poverty and hunger is an extraordinary example for all leaders.

For many Americans, his term in office will be remembered for long petrol queues at home as well as high unemployment and inflation. His foreign policy legacy as president was complex, but for many in the US it is defined by the Iran hostage crisis which consumed the final 444 days of his presidency and was televised every night across the country.

President Carter’s handling of the crisis was widely criticized but his work to make human rights a priority as early as 1976 was visionary.…  Seguir leyendo »

Syrians living in Tripoli, Libya gather in to celebrate the overthrow of Baath Party rule in Syria on December 8, 2024. (Photo by Hazem Turkia/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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The rapid and complete capitulation of the Assad regime in Syria shows how quickly fragile political systems can transform.

Syrians have earned the right to celebrate the overthrow of this murderous regime, whose atrocities are still being uncovered. Syria is now in the midst of an uncertain transition, where there are far too many possible outcomes to make predictions with any level of confidence.

Politicians in the region and beyond have expressed their hopes for a new Syria, albeit expressing caution given the complexity of the situation. They have also offered up experiences from other conflict affected states as a cautionary tale.…  Seguir leyendo »

An aerial view of an LNG vessel at Marmara Ereglisi LNG Storage Facility in Tekirdag, Turkiye on April 12, 2023. (Photo by Lokman Akkaya/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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The sudden collapse of the 54-year Assad dynasty in Syria has opened possibilities for a new regional order. Much remains uncertain, but Turkey – which has hosted most of Syria’s refugees and backed the winning side – is in a leading position to shape that future.

The cost of Syrian reconstruction is estimated to reach $400 billion, and Turkish companies are well-placed to secure major contracts should Syria’s state-led economy transform into a free market.

Diplomatically, Ankara could leverage its support for Syrian rebels to negotiate favourable defence agreements with the new government in Damascus – potentially replicating similar agreements it has with Azerbaijan, Qatar, Somalia, and Libya.…  Seguir leyendo »

People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian community and supporters celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, in Istanbul on 8 December 2024. Photo: YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images.

EuropaMundoOriente Próximo,

No other crisis has redefined Turkey’s place in regional and international politics as much as the Syrian conflict. Turkey shares its longest land border with Syria, over 900 km. Syria is therefore not merely a foreign policy issue for Turkey but also a domestic one.

While Turkey has shaped the course of the Syrian conflict, the Syrian conflict has in turn shaped the dynamics of Turkish domestic politics and international relations for more than a decade. The relationship between Turkey and the Syrian crisis has been a story of mutual reshaping. Almost all ethnic, sectarian and ideological identity cleavages that exist in Syria also exist in Turkey.…  Seguir leyendo »

Defaced portraits of Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hang above an entrance to a building, reportedly used by the Russian Army, in the Syrian town of Al-Bassah on December 12, 2024. (Photo by AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images)

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The fall of the Assad regime has damaged Russian interests far beyond Syria. First, the collapse is a serious blow to Russia’s reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Since its military intervention in 2015, Moscow’s propaganda machine has been positioning Russia as a guarantor of stability and protector of (usually dictatorial) regimes from external pressure and internal threats. This propaganda has always drawn parallels between Assad and the fates of American allies, primarily Hosni Mubarak – trying to set the Kremlin off against ‘unreliable Americans’.

The loss of Assad will undermine the confidence of potential allies in Russian guarantees.…  Seguir leyendo »

Portraits of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (R) and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stand at the entrance of the Yarmuk camp for Palestinian refugees, south of Damascus, on 26 March 2024. (Photo by Louai Beshara/AFP via Getty Images).

MundoOriente Próximo,

The ousting of Syria’s brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad by his own people is not just a momentous national event but one with consequences spilling across the Middle East, nowhere more so than Iran. Tehran’s abrupt withdrawal from Syria, having propped up Assad since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, has exposed Iran’s strategic and military weakness.

Iran’s opportunistically constructed axis of resistance – composed of Hamas in Gaza, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Assad in Syria, militia groups in Iraq and the Yemen-based Houthis – was designed to provide Tehran with strategic depth and deter attacks. In the last year, the network has suffered significant blows at the hands of Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

Syrians gather at Umayyad Square to celebrate the collapse of 61 years of Baath Party rule in Damascus, Syria on 9 December 2024. Photo by Murat Sengul/Anadolu via Getty Images.

MundoOriente Próximo

The dramatic collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime following an offensive led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces has presented Syria with a pivotal opportunity for change. Although the political transition must be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, the international community – meaning here the US, EU, Turkey, Jordan and Gulf Arab states – must step up and offer support as Syria passes through a new challenging phase.

There is neither time nor space for handwringing or standing back and watching events unfold – crowing from the sidelines helps nobody. Too many lives have been lost, and too many Syrians have become displaced or refugees because of indifference.…  Seguir leyendo »

A rally against South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol, near the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on 10 December, 2024. (Photo by Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)

MundoAsia

The sudden declaration of martial law this month by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was motivated largely by domestic political divisions. Though martial law was revoked hours later, the consequences will reverberate far beyond the country’s borders.

For now, democracy remains alive in South Korea. Nevertheless, the failure of the motion to impeach President Yoon underscores the likely long-lasting consequences of the actions by the president, who faces ongoing domestic opposition and must now try to salvage a tarnished national and international reputation.

After opposition parties filed a motion to impeach Yoon, all but three of the 108 members of the ruling People Power Party boycotted Saturday’s vote.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman waves the flag of the Syrian rebels as people gather to celebrate the fall of the government, in Umayyad Square on December 8, 2024 in Damascus, Syria. (Photo by Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)

MundoOriente Próximo

The speed of the Syrian opposition’s victory in toppling President Bashar al-Assad has added to the significance of the moment. Even more remarkable is that this revolution, which will reshape the region, was an uprising by Syrians themselves – not one imposed by a foreign government.

Fighters led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani’s HTS forces swept aside five decades of rule by the Assad family in just over a week, revealing the weakness at the heart of the regime – and the inability or unwillingness of its patrons, Iran and Russia, to help it survive. The result is clearly a considerable setback for Moscow and Tehran.…  Seguir leyendo »

Morocco Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch (2nd-L) arrives at the Beijing Capital International airport in Beijing on 4 September 2024, for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). Photo by ADEK BERRYADEK BERRY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping stopped off in Morocco on his return from the G20 summit in Brazil in November.

The flying visit is a sign of the importance China attaches to safeguarding its domination of the electric-vehicle industry as it prepares for the return to office of US President Donald Trump. It could also signal the emergence of the North African country as a battleground in a forthcoming great-power trade war.

China’s EV exports face increasing protectionist policies in Europe and the US. The EU’s Green Deal and its Open Strategic Autonomy policies are designed to protect industrial supply chains and reduce their reliance on China.…  Seguir leyendo »

Aleppo on December 5, 2024 (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

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Bashar al-Assad has been here before. The fall of Aleppo last week in many ways resembles similar lightning advances made by rebel forces earlier in Syria’s long civil war. As in eastern Aleppo in 2012, Raqqa in 2013 and Idlib in 2015, Assad’s forces melted away within days.

But something feels different this time. The collapse was both unexpected and unprecedented. Aleppo is a valuable prize, as Syria’s second city and former industrial heartland. Assad was determined to cling onto the western half in 2012, and his troops spent years besieging the east before recapturing it at great cost four years later.…  Seguir leyendo »

Environmental activists demonstrate in front of the Bexco convention center in Busan on November 29, 2024 (Photo by ROLAND DE COURSON/AFP via Getty Images)

ReflexionesNaturaleza,

Negotiations aimed at securing a legally binding international treaty to combat the growing scourge of plastics pollution ended in division in the South Korean city of Busan at the weekend.

Governments will make a further effort early next year to reach agreement – though the challenges for achieving a better result in 2025 will require renewed commitment from all parties involved.

The Intergovernmental Negotiations Committee on Plastic Pollution (INC) had a clear mandate from the United Nations Environment Assembly in 2022 to conclude the negotiations by the end of 2024. However, the lengthy and complex process was marked by intense debates and competing national interests.…  Seguir leyendo »

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier attends the debate prior to the no-confidence votes on his administration at the National Assembly in Paris on 4 December 2024. Photo by ALAIN JOCARD/AFP via Getty Images.

EuropaUnión Europea,

The no-confidence vote in Michel Barnier that has toppled his minority government was the first since 1962 to oust a French prime minister of the Fifth Republic. 331 MPs from the left and far-right joined forces to ensure the end of Barnier’s leadership. President Macron is due to name a new prime minister, the fourth in just a year, but with no assurance it will bring back the political stability that France has enjoyed over many decades.

The reasons for this political turmoil have not vanished with the fall of Barnier’s cabinet. First, it has been driven by the far-left and far-right leaders, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.…  Seguir leyendo »

Opposition forces pose outside Aleppo's Citadel, a symbolic landmark of the city. (Photo by Minene Hindevi/Anadolu via Getty Images)

MundoOriente Próximo,

Just as Middle East observers exhaled in relief following the announcement of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, Syria’s war reignited with startling intensity on 27 November.

Syrian opposition groups launched a military offensive that delivered striking results, capturing hundreds of kilometres of territory across the governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama in a matter of days – reclaiming some areas and seizing others for the first time.

The timing and rapid progress of the offensive caught many observers off guard. But this escalation is a predictable outcome of the international community’s consistent failure to prioritize conflict resolution over conflict management.…  Seguir leyendo »

Miao Hua (C), China's director of the political affairs department of the Central Military Commission, disembarks his aircraft after arriving at Pyongyang International Airport on 14 October 2019. Photo by KIM WON JIN/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoAsia

Last week, China’s Ministry of Defence announced that Admiral Miao Hua, a very senior figure within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has been suspended and is under investigation for ‘serious violation of discipline’. This comes soon after a report from US officials that Defence Minister Dong Jun is also under investigation (although Beijing has insisted that he remains in post).

Both men are personal appointees of President Xi Jinping, indicating that loyalty and control of the military is more important than avoiding shorter-term instability in command structure and significant embarrassment. This reflects the seriousness with which Xi is taking his ambitions for the PLA, but also has implications for the perception of actual Chinese fighting capability abroad.…  Seguir leyendo »

Joe Biden shakes hands with Joao Lourenco during a meeting in the Oval Office on 30 November 2023. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

MundoÁfrica

President Joe Biden’s trip to Angola next week is his first to Africa as president, and the first visit to Angola by an American leader since independence from Portugal in 1975.

It comes as the governing People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party prepares to celebrate 50 years of rule, and Angola gets ready to host the US–Africa Business Summit in mid-2025.

The Biden administration has tried to increase its Africa engagement since 2021, through sharpened focus within its Africa network, increased official visits and important new initiatives such as the Lobito Corridor.

The Corridor is planned as part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), a G7 initiative designed to compete with Chinese influence head on, in Africa and beyond.…  Seguir leyendo »

A damaged building in the southern Lebanese village of Meiss El-Jabal on November 25, 2024 (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

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Now that the dust has settled, following the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, it is crucial to ask whether this deal will last. Let’s face it, we’ve been here before.

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought viciously for more than a month for reasons not dissimilar to today’s context. By conducting a cross-border raid against Israeli troops, Hezbollah sought to alleviate some pressure on Hamas, which was battling with Israel in Gaza.

The operation backfired, triggering a devastating conflict that led to the killing of roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, and to massive displacement and damage to infrastructure in southern Lebanon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hundreds of Jordanians demonstrate near the US embassy in Amman on 14 May 2018 to protest the relocation of Washington's Israel embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Photo by Shadi Nsoor/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

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Although the re-election of Donald Trump was always a strong possibility, his success at the polls must have sent shockwaves through Jordan’s political establishment.

Most world leaders have made positive statements about the upcoming Trump presidency in a bid to hedge against unexpected US policy movements – and Jordan is no different. The government’s official position is that US–Jordan relations are multidimensional, multifaceted, highly institutionalized and will therefore remain strong.

But the return of Trump does not bode well for Jordan given his indifference towards the kingdom the first time around. Jordan has three key reasons to be concerned.

First, Trump will once again overlook the importance of Jordan to US interests in the Middle East.…  Seguir leyendo »