Chatham House (Continuación)

The Hotel Majestic in Paris.

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia

On 30 May 1919, at the Hotel Majestic in Paris, the idea for the Royal Institute of International Affairs began to take shape. A group of scholars, attending the Paris Peace Conference as members of the American and British delegations, were brought together by Lionel Curtis to discuss the need for an institute to host critical discussion and promote the study of international questions.

Historian Katharina Rietzler speaks about how the meeting came together and how it led to the creation of Chatham House.

The meeting on 30 May 1919 marks the origin of Chatham House as the first British international relations think-tank – but the meeting matters in a wider sense because it cemented the idea that intellectuals and scholars should have a systematic and structured input into the making of foreign policy and the shaping of world politics.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kofi Annan in 2017. Photo: Getty Images.

InternacionalONUReflexionesTestimonios

On 3 and 4 June, Chatham House will host a major conference in partnership with the UN Association (UK), supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates and Open Society Foundations, to reflect on the lessons learned from the remarkable life of Kofi Annan, who served as UN secretary-general from 1997 to 2006 and passed away almost a year ago, on 18 August 2018.

The conference will fall on the same days as Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom, which, though unplanned, brings into stark relief the ways in which current changes in international relations are affecting Kofi Annan’s legacy of UN-led multilateralism that Ban Ki-moon and now Antonio Guterres have carried forward.…  Seguir leyendo »

A monitor displays the day's final numbers on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the closing bell on 2 February 2018. Photo: Getty Images

InternacionalEconomía

Financialization – it’s a bit of a buzzword, but what does it actually mean?

In the most general sense, it means that financial services are taking up a larger and larger portion of the global economy. There are really two different types of financialization if you want to talk about this broadly.

The first type is where this is happening across the world in countries like China and India. China is probably the biggest example. The financial system there basically didn’t exist in any sophisticated way 20 or 30 years ago, so some of the basic functions of finance are now being developed.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

‘Please do not waste this time.’ When EU leaders agreed to extend negotiations with the UK back in April, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, cautioned exhausted British parliamentarians to refocus on finding a way forward. Six weeks later and with European elections conducted, Britain is leaderless and Brexit is adrift. October will be here in no time.

Theresa May was dealt a hand that was nearly impossible to play well, but in the event, she played it very badly. Perhaps the most significant error was to trigger the Article 50 negotiations in March 2017 at a time when the planning and preparation was still getting into gear, and without a workable consensus within her cabinet, party or Parliament.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica

On 25 May, Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated as president of South Africa, having dragged the African National Congress (ANC) over the line in the 8 May election. The ANC gained a 57 per cent majority, its lowest vote since 1994, its status as national liberator deeply eroded by successive corruption scandals. Only Ramaphosa’s personal popularity stopped it haemorrhaging more support.

His sustained action against corrupt public servants and promises of job-creating economic growth has attracted support from beyond the ANC’s base, including a significant minority of white voters, and generated significant international goodwill. Ramaphosa now has a short window of opportunity to reset social democracy in South Africa before the political cycle of municipal, party and national elections from 2021 to 2024 forces his attention back to party politics.…  Seguir leyendo »

Campaigners call for gender equality and women's rights on International Women's Day in front of the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia on 8 March 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAsia, ,

Southeast Asia has one of the highest records of gender-based violence in the world and Indonesia was recently ranked as the second most dangerous place for women in the Asia-Pacific. What is the state of women’s rights and gender equality in Indonesia?

It is true that Indonesia has high rates of violence against women, however, it’s difficult to know the realities of women’s experiences because in the past the data has been somewhat unreliable. This has been due to reasons such as a lack of reporting mechanisms available to survivors of violence and the fact that discussing sexual violence is a taboo, and if reported, can result in stigmatization which limits the number of survivors who have come forward.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

Theresa May’s prolonged attempt to negotiate the UK’s withdrawal from the EU has overshadowed an important, related discussion about the longer-term role of the UK in Europe after Brexit.

From the early 1960s, when the UK first sought entry to the European Economic Community, and since accession in 1973, successive British governments have wrestled with the agenda of the European economic and political integration project. However, across those decades, concerns with EEC/EC/EU issues never overwhelmed a broader British foreign policy for Europe. The UK remained focused on maintaining a leading role in the major political, economic and security issues faced by the continent.…  Seguir leyendo »

Donald Trump delivers the 2019 State of the Union address. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAmérica

Can the United States continue to shape international politics as it has done for the past 70 years, or is the era of US dominance coming to an end? Most attempts to answer this question focus on America’s relative power – that is, the balance of material capabilities between the US and its geopolitical competitors. However, today the most pressing checks on US leadership come not from foreign competitors, but rather from America’s increasingly dysfunctional domestic politics.

America is suffering from a shortage of functional or ‘usable power.’ While relative power as measured by its military arsenal vis-à-vis those of its rivals has held steady, the domestic political ability of US presidents to turn the country’s tremendous power and wealth into international influence is declining.…  Seguir leyendo »

Zebras in a dust storm in Amboseli National Park in Kenya. Photo: Getty Images.

ReflexionesNaturaleza

The release of a major report looking at the state of nature presents a grim forecast for the future of humanity and the planet. Gitika Bhardwaj speaks to Sandra Diaz, co-chair of the report, about what’s driving this biodiversity crisis and how we can stop it before it's too late.

Last week, 150 experts from 50 countries released a major report demonstrating that nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented, with up to 1 million species threatened with extinction, more than at any other time in human history. What is driving this global loss of biodiversity and how is it different from previous waves of extinctions experienced on Earth?…  Seguir leyendo »

The WTO headquarters in Geneva. Photo: Getty Images.

Internacional

The global trading system – with the WTO at its heart – is facing a ‘make or break’ moment. All three of the WTO’s functions are under pressure and in need of reform: administering multilateral trade rules, serving as a forum for trade negotiations and providing a mechanism to settle trade disputes. But despite this gloomy outlook, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.

The most immediate flashpoint is addressing the shortcomings of the dispute settlement system. Though President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to pull the US out of the organization are a cause for concern, this is unlikely to happen given the role of Congress and the economic costs involved.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

A record 73% of voters cast ballots for a complete political novice in Volodymyr Zelenskyi for president of Ukraine. He rallied voters against the old system and harnessed anti-elitist sentiment and disillusionment from the unfulfilled promises of the protests of 2014.

Over 60% of the total Ukrainian population voted because they believed their choice could have real impact; 30 per cent of Zelenskyi’s supporters were youth under 30. Despite Russian claims that the southeast of Ukraine was disenfranchised and had no choice, the turnout in the Kyiv-controlled Donetsk oblast increased almost by 40% compared to the 2014 election. Similarly, many more Ukrainians voted in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts.…  Seguir leyendo »

A soldier from MONUSCO patrols outside an Ebola Treatment Centre in Butembo, the epicentre of Democratic Republic of the Congo's latest Ebola outbreak, after it was attacked 9 March. Photo: Getty Images.

InternacionalONU,

This month marks the third anniversary of the unanimous adoption by the UN Security Council of Resolution 2286, which condemns attacks on health care and demands that UN member states ensure the protection of health care delivery during conflicts.

The resolution addresses attacks against the wounded and sick; medical personnel and humanitarian personnel exclusively engaged in medical duties; their means of transport and equipment; and hospitals and other medical facilities in armed conflicts. It calls on all parties to conflicts to fully comply with their obligations under international laws to ensure health care delivery is protected.

In August the same year, the UN secretary general submitted his recommendations on measures to operationalize the resolution.…  Seguir leyendo »

EspañaEleccionesEuropa, ,

Angelos Chryssogelos speaks to Lyndsey Jefferson about Spain's general election and what to expect for the upcoming European elections.

As predicted, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) won the most seats (29%) and is likely to form a coalition with the far-left Podemos in order to govern. Given that Spanish politics has become increasingly fragmented in recent years, do you think this alliance will be able to deliver a functioning government?

It’s probably going to be very difficult not least because PSOE and Podemos currently don’t have a majority on their own – they will need further support from some of the regionalist parties.…  Seguir leyendo »

Emperor Akihito. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAsia

Japan's Emperor Akihito is the country's first monarch in more than 200 years to abdicate, bringing an end to its Heisei era.

Akihito's decision to abdicate represents a sharp break from royal tradition for the world's oldest monarchy.

The last official abdication took place in 1817, and so when Akihito announced in 2016 his desire to step down due to old age and ill-health, immediate reaction in Japan was mixed.

For many of Japan's conservative politicians, for whom Japan's national identity is tied closely to the notion of an unbroken monarchical line stretching back to the 7th Century BC, abdication was seen as an anomaly, conflicting with the notion that the monarch should serve out his term for the length of his natural life.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsiaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

What are the implications of the recent terrorist attacks for the country?

The political parties met last week at an all-party conference to try and forge a new security culture in the wake of these attacks. This brought together key players such as current President Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wikremesinghe as well as formidable political figures like the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The intent at the moment seems to be to try to present a united front recognizing the scale of the crisis – and one hopes that the enormity of what happened will bring everyone together.

How likely is it that Sri Lankan society will come together to present a united front in response to the attacks?…  Seguir leyendo »

Sudanese protesters open their smartphones lights as they gather for a "million-strong" march outside the army headquarters in Khartoum on April 25, 2019. Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica,

Many Sudanese believe that the uprising is moving in the right direction and will ultimately deliver a transition to a legitimate civilian government. However, this outcome remains finely balanced and there are valid concerns about the intentions of the new transitional military council and a possible return to dictatorship.

The military council maintains the need for a transitional period of up to two years before handing over power to civilians. But the protests have continued, despite the military’s attempts at gentle dispersion, and there are worries about how much patience the armed forces will continue to show.

There is significant potential for increased violence, particularly if demands for a rapid transition towards an inclusive, transitional civilian government are not met.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaInternacionalOTAN

On 14 April, General Curtis Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Command Operations General, deplored the broken communication process with Russia and a lack of understanding of “each other’s signals”. Immediately afterwards, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko denounced the current deadlock with NATO, claiming cooperation had been discontinued and disagreements with the Atlantic Alliance were now “even deeper than before”.

Relations between NATO and the Kremlin have reached a dangerously abrasive stage, as the existing threat-reduction arrangements and confidence-building mechanisms with Russia are not working. Russia and NATO are talking past each other and substantive dialogue is not possible under current conditions.…  Seguir leyendo »

An investor looks at a board showing stock market movements at a securities company in Beijing on 10 July 2015. Photo by Getty Images.

MundoAsia

So, the Chinese economy does have a pulse after all. Credit extension by banks and bond issuance by local governments are supporting some kind of revival in infrastructure investment, and a 30 per cent rise in the Chinese equity market since the start of this year is helping to lift the intensely pessimistic mood that paralysed Chinese spending in the latter part of 2018.

The stimulus policies that China started to introduce last summer, and intensified more recently, now seem to be reviving the patient. From the rest of the world’s point of view, all this is greatly to be welcomed, since China’s last round of stimulus, which lasted from late 2015 until late 2017, did something amazing to the global economy.…  Seguir leyendo »

China Needs to Make the Belt and Road Initiative More Transparent and Predictable

MundoAsia,

As China welcomes dozens of world leaders to Beijing for its second Belt and Road forum, it has one simple aim: relaunching President Xi Jinping’s controversial global infrastructure drive.

Since it began five years ago, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has sunk hundreds of billions into port, railway and power projects stretching from south-east Asia to central Europe. But its path has been bumpy, drawing sharp criticism over the ruinous debts that some countries have racked up amid Chinese largesse.

Xi will stress sustainable financing and transparency this week, amid the usual talk of 'win win' cooperation. Yet BRI’s problems are structural, not presentational.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian special forces soldiers stand guard in front of the Central Electoral Commission in Kyiv on 1 April. Photo: Getty Images.

Europa,

The president of Ukraine has primary responsibility for managing national security and foreign relations. But ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 31 March, candidates mainly exchanged views on issues that are the responsibility of the government not the president: anti-corruption measures, gas prices and social benefits.

The focus on domestic issues reflects the fact that there is broad consensus in society on Ukraine’s foreign policy orientation. To this extent, President Petro Poroshenko is a victim of his success. After 2014, he was instrumental in building international support for Ukraine.

This led to the IMF’s stabilization package and the rapid implementation of the Association Agreement with the EU.…  Seguir leyendo »