Crisis Group

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del periódico incoporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de mayo de 2007.

Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of Israel's Otzma Yehudit far-right party. Eastern Jerusalem, 2 November 2022 / Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Tel Aviv, Israel, 30 October 2022. Mostafa Alkharouf / Anadolu Agency via AFP

This publication is part of a  joint initiative between the International Crisis Group and the U.S./Middle East Project (USMEP) to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

What, in brief, is the outcome of the elections?

After four consecutive, inconclusive elections since April 2019, Israelis went to the polls once more on 1 November. The vote saw the return of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite the fact that he is on trial for corruption. Perhaps even more significant in the outcome, however, was the victory it represented for the far right, who comprise a large part of Netanyahu’s winning coalition. The three parties of the Religious Zionist alliance that handed Netanyahu his win are religiously ultra-conservative, transparently Jewish ethno-nationalist and expressly anti-Arab.…  Seguir leyendo »

La proximidad de Ecuador a los principales productores de cocaína, su economía dolarizada y sus instituciones estatales propensas a la corrupción, así como el devastador impacto del COVID-19, han convertido al país en el más reciente epicentro del narcotráfico y otros delitos violentos de América Latina.

Acontecimientos recientes en Guayaquil, la ciudad más poblada de Ecuador, han dado un giro oscuro y letal. Ampliamente conocida con el evocador nombre de la “perla del Pacífico”, la ciudad portuaria se ha convertido en la capital del crimen en el país, un lugar donde la violencia es casi rutinaria. En un episodio particularmente sangriento, el 14 de agosto, un atentado con armas de fuego y explosivos, descrito por las autoridades como una “declaración de guerra contra el Estado” por parte del crimen organizado, dejó a cinco personas muertas y veinte más heridas. Según la prensa local, en Ecuador se han registrado al menos 145 atentados con explosivos entre enero y mediados de agosto de 2022; la mitad de ellos ocurrieron en Guayaquil.…  Seguir leyendo »

BEIJING, Oct. 18, 2022 (Xinhua) -- The presidium of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) holds its second meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China. Shen Hong / XINHUA / Xinhua via AFP

What is happening?

The Communist Party of China (CPC) is nearly through its twentieth Party Congress, a key event held twice per decade that signals the direction of Beijing’s domestic and foreign policies. The Congress opened on 16 October with a two-hour speech by President Xi Jinping and will run through 22 October. So far, Xi’s speech and the draft Party Congress report – the most important document that will emerge from the event – suggest a more pessimistic assessment of China’s external environment and a heightened perception of threats to its national security. But they also reflect considerable continuity in statements of national objectives and timelines for reaching them.…  Seguir leyendo »

Sri Lanka: Keeping the Storm at Bay

Sri Lanka’s interlocking economic and political crises remain acute. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group lays out what the EU and its member states can do to mitigate the risks of needed reforms.

Despite relative calm on the streets since mass protests forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign in early July, Sri Lanka’s interlocking economic and political crises remain acute. Selected by parliament to succeed Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe has since secured a preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $2.9 billion bailout loan known as an Extended Funds Facility (EFF). The deal is a necessary first step toward addressing its economic woes, but even if Colombo succeeds in convincing its international creditors to reduce its debts – which the IMF requires to disburse its loan – major challenges remain.…  Seguir leyendo »

Venezuela: The Twilight of Maximum Pressure

Venezuela’s international isolation is easing, though its political crisis remains unresolved. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU and its member states can do to pave the way for progress in negotiations between government and opposition.

Venezuela’s protracted political crisis has entered a less turbulent phase, with most opponents of President Nicolás Maduro’s government, both domestic and foreign, scaling down their confrontational tactics. With the election of new left-leaning governments in several countries, the appetite for adversarial relations with Caracas has diminished. While Washington and a handful of close U.S. allies continue to insist that “Interim President” Juan Guaidó, the former chair of the legislature, is the country’s legitimate leader, most of the governments that refused to recognise Maduro or reduced their diplomatic presence in Caracas are now reversing course or planning to do so.…  Seguir leyendo »

Investing in Climate Adaptation and Resilience as a Bulwark Against Conflict

Across the Horn of Africa, drought and flooding are displacing people and sharpening competition for land and water, risking conflict. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to increase funding for climate adaptation.

Investing in Climate Adaptation and Resilience as a Bulwark Against Conflict

Climate change is increasing the risk of conflict across the Horn of Africa. Intensified droughts and floods render land unusable, force people from their homes and compel them to compete for resources. They also raise the stakes in transboundary water disputes. The climate-conflict link is evident in Kenya, where four consecutive years of failed rains appear to be exacerbating ethnic tensions between farmers and herders jostling for access to scarce land and water.…  Seguir leyendo »

Walking a Fine Line in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to keep balancing support for Kyiv with the imperative of avoiding a direct clash with Moscow.

A new and potentially more dangerous phase looms in Russia’s war in Ukraine. After surprising the world with successful counter-attacks since August, Kyiv seemingly has the upper hand on the battlefield. But Moscow shows no sign of backing down – quite the opposite. In response to Ukrainian gains, the Kremlin has staged sham referendums in territories it controls and announced that it has annexed large parts of Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporting Dialogue and Demobilisation in the DR Congo

Rising violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has the Great Lakes region on edge. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU and its member states can do to help bring stability to the area.

The eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing an alarming uptick of violence. Fighting between the Congolese military and the March 23 Movement (M23), which resurfaced in November 2021 after suffering defeat in 2013, has surged. So, too, have attacks on civilians and camps for internally displaced people by other armed groups. The bloodshed has the entire Great Lakes region on edge and is creating friction beyond the DRC’s borders.…  Seguir leyendo »

As President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion of Ukraine continues, pressure is mounting to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. | Dmitry Serebryakov/AP Photo

As President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion of Ukraine continues, pressure is mounting to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism — a move that would apply new sanctions to Moscow and put it on a short list of countries the U.S. treats as pariahs. But while Russia’s atrocious and aggressive conduct in Ukraine deserves both condemnation and a strong response, a state sponsor designation is the wrong tool at the wrong moment.

President Joe Biden has resisted taking this step. Yet Congress, with direction from senior leadership, including  Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is pushing ahead, with bills in  both the House and the  Senate that would designate Russia legislatively.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cameroon’s Anglophone conflict: Children should be able to return to school

At the start of Cameroon’s academic year on 5 September, schools in the two Anglophone regions kept their doors shut to comply with a general strike (locally known as a “ghost town” operation) imposed by separatist militias combating the government in Yaoundé. The following day, only a handful of schools offered classes, primarily in the relatively safe towns of Buea and Limbe.

School’s out

Some separatist groups have ordered public schools in the Anglophone regions to remain closed until at least 1 October. On that day five years ago, separatists proclaimed the independent Federal Republic of Ambazonia, as they call the North West and South West regions.…  Seguir leyendo »

In this photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks with Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, left, as she arrives in Taipei Aug. 2.Associated Press

The risk of a crisis emerging from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan this week is uncomfortably high. A crisis is not inevitable if Washington and Beijing engage in deft diplomacy, but the visit will probably lock in place an even more confrontational dynamic, increasing the chances of US-China conflict over Taiwan in the future.

No matter what immediate tit-for-tat reactions there are to the visit, the troubling long-term implication points to the urgent need for the Biden administration and Congress to better coordinate their handling of the Taiwan issue.

On Tuesday Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, the first time since 1997 that a US official of her seniority — second in the line of presidential succession — has visited the island.…  Seguir leyendo »

With the swearing in of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Sri Lanka’s new president, the country briefly caught its breath after weeks of crisis, generated by public anger at the accelerating economic collapse and the severe hardship it is causing. The extraordinary events of July 9-15, when massive crowds occupied the presidential residence and offices and forced then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and flee the country, were the culmination of months of island-wide protests under the banner of #GotaGoHome. The tremendous and unprecedented victory of a genuine people’s struggle – janatha aragalaya in Sinhala – paved the way for this week’s selection of Wickremesinghe by parliament.…  Seguir leyendo »

Each year Crisis Group publishes two Updates to complement its EU Watch List. The Updates identify crises and conflicts where the European Union and its member states can help enhance prospects for peace. This Update includes entries on Libya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh, Pakistan and Ukraine.

Europeans have entered a new world since January, when Crisis Group published its 2022 EU Watch List. Back then, Russian troops were massing near Ukraine’s border. Western intelligence reports warned that an invasion could be on the cards, causing considerable disquiet in European capitals, but Moscow still insisted that its soldiers were merely conducting exercises. Then, on 24 February, Russia launched a full-scale invasion, turning what had been a grinding standoff in Ukraine’s east into a quest to conquer the whole country.…  Seguir leyendo »

The progress Libya made toward stability in 2021 has all but vanished. Then, an interim leader unified two competing cabinets, and rival factions agreed to schedule parliamentary and presidential elections that would eventually lead to the formation of a new elected government. But the elections were cancelled at the last minute and now the country is once again stuck in a standoff between two rival executives, one based in the western city of Tripoli and the other currently operating from the coastal city of Sirt in central Libya, with no consensus on the way forward.

The feud has not relapsed into an outright conflict, as thus far both camps and their respective foreign sponsors (some of whom have recently achieved their own rapprochements) appear reluctant to resume fighting.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Malian government’s conflict with jihadist insurgents has entered its tenth year with no resolution in sight. The government that came to power in 2021 has adopted a populist, anti-Western stance, blaming France, its long-time ally in fighting the militants, for the deadlock, while doubling down on offensive military action that has resulted in a surge in civilian casualties. Alienated by Bamako’s rhetoric and its decision to bring in the Russian private security company Wagner, France and other EU member states are withdrawing their troops from Mali, except for those deployed in the UN’s mission there. Although the Malian army has recently won limited victories in the country’s centre, the departure of its best equipped allies could shift the conflict’s momentum, energise militants and worsen the protracted humanitarian crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

In the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine, a series of clashes and a subsequent period of quiet have raised both fears about renewed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh and hopes that diplomacy might still bring the parties closer to peace. In March, Azerbaijani forces seized territory around Farukh, an ethnic Armenian-populated village that has been patrolled by Russian peacekeepers since a ceasefire ended the 2020 war that upended an almost three-decade status quo in the region. The Armenian government, along with Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto authorities, worried that the move might herald a broader Azerbaijani offensive, taking advantage of Moscow’s focus on Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Though Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted through a democratic, constitutional process, he has denied the new government’s legitimacy, a tack that could lead to violence. The strategy Khan has relied on since parliament passed a no-confidence vote against him on 10 April has two goals: to undermine the coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif and to galvanise popular support for new polls. Khan accuses his political opponents, now heading a new government, of conspiring with the U.S. to remove him, and is calling on his supporters to reject “foreign-imposed regime change”. He also bears grudges against the Supreme Court for upholding the constitutionality of the no-trust vote and against the country’s powerful military for refusing to back him in the standoff.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia’s military assault on Ukraine, now in its fourteenth week, has deeply unsettled European security and is likely to have profound implications for the EU itself. On 24 February, Russian forces attacked Ukraine from the north, south and east, transforming a simmering eight-year conflict in the country’s eastern Donbas region into a war that arguably poses the gravest risk to international peace and security in decades. Russian forces encountered stiff Ukrainian resistance, soon reinforced by Western-supplied weapons and body armour, forcing Moscow at least to postpone its goals of overthrowing the government in Kyiv and bringing Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kofi Annan’s Lessons in Global Leadership

The world is facing a set of acute crises without recent parallel: a war in Europe that could escalate into a nuclear conflict, skyrocketing food prices that are hitting the poor the hardest, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the climate emergency. We need principled statesmen and women to forge bold, morally consistent responses to these and other global problems. Sadly, such leaders are in short supply.

Many politicians prefer to advocate polarizing policies, avoid hard choices, and deny the scale of the threats at hand. Others have tried to address these issues honestly. But those who favor cooperation and solidarity in dealing with global threats are on the defensive, as last year’s underwhelming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow and grossly unequal global access to COVID-19 vaccines clearly illustrate.…  Seguir leyendo »

A boy waves a flag Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah during a rally to attend a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, broadcast on a giant screen, in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, on May 9, 2022, ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections on May 15. The portraits on billboards are fighters from the group who were killed in confrontations with Israel or in Syria. (Photo by Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)

Parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 15 will keep in power many of the same political elites that have led the country into a ruinous economic crisis, a dispiriting outcome for the domestic opposition and foreign actors aiming to avoid the creation of yet another failed state in the region. These results should impel stakeholders to navigate the narrow limits of change imposed by domestic and regional conditions.

Parliamentary elections, and ways to deter the ruling elite from cancelling the polls, have taken center stage in debates about Lebanon in the past year. Voting in a new parliament might have been an inflection point toward the change needed to unlock substantial foreign assistance and thereby arrest the country’s descent into ever-deeper crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »