Foreign Affairs

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del periódico incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de diciembre de 2006.

Nota informativa: Foreign Affairs es una publicación del Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) fundada en 1922. En la actualidad es una organización mediática multiplataforma centrada en la política exterior estadounidense y los asuntos mundiales. Tiene implementado un «muro de pago» por lo que es necesario suscribirse para tener acceso a todos sus contenidos. Más información en su página de suscripción.

The Delusion of Peak China

MundoAsia

Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping secured his third term in power in the fall of 2022, he has had a rough time. Shortly after his reappointment, street protests pushed him to abruptly abandon his signature “zero COVID” policy. After a quick reopening bump in early 2023, the economy has progressively slowed, revealing both cyclical and structural challenges. Investors are leaving in droves, with foreign direct investment and portfolio flows reaching record lows. Meanwhile, Xi has fired his handpicked minsters for defense and foreign affairs in the wake of allegations of corruption and worse. His military bungled its balloon intelligence-collection program, precipitating an unwanted crisis after a stray balloon floated over the continental United States for days in early 2023.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lebanese watching an address by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Beirut, April 2024. Mohamed Azakir / Reuters

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Over the past six months, tensions along Israel’s border with Lebanon have escalated dramatically. Israel has now deployed 100,000 troops to its north to confront the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, and the fighting there has steadily intensified. Nearly 400 Lebanese—including around 70 civilians and three journalists—have been killed, 90,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced from around 100 towns and villages along the Israeli-Lebanese border, and Lebanese villages and olive groves have incurred widespread damage from phosphorus bombs. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has attempted to demonstrate its support for Hamas, now under siege from Israel in Gaza after its October 7 attack, by firing rockets almost daily at Israeli towns and military targets, displacing nearly 80,000 Israelis and killing a half dozen civilians.…  Seguir leyendo »

China’s Alternative Order

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By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies. He wants to knock the U.S. dollar off its pedestal and eliminate Washington’s chokehold over critical technology. In his new multipolar order, global institutions and norms will be underpinned by Chinese notions of common security and economic development, Chinese values of state-determined political rights, and Chinese technology. China will no longer have to fight for leadership. Its centrality will be guaranteed.

To hear Xi tell it, this world is within reach.…  Seguir leyendo »

A protest in support of Palestinians near the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, March 2024. Alaa Al-Sukhni / Reuters

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Since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, the Middle East has been rocked by mass protests. Egyptians have demonstrated in solidarity with Palestinians at great personal risk, and Iraqis, Moroccans, Tunisians, and Yemenis have taken to the streets in vast numbers. Meanwhile, Jordanians have broken long-standing redlines by marching on the Israeli embassy, and Saudi Arabia has refused to resume normalization talks with Israel, in part because of its people’s deep fury over Israel’s operations in the Gaza Strip.

For Washington, the view is that none of this mobilization really matters. Arab leaders, after all, are among the world’s most experienced practitioners of realpolitik, and they have a record of ignoring their people’s preferences.…  Seguir leyendo »

French and Ukrainian soldiers training in France, November 2023. Olivier Chassignole / Reuters

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A taboo has been broken in Europe. Only a few months ago, it would have been inconceivable for European leaders to propose sending European troops to Ukraine. But on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said the deployment of European forces to Ukraine could not be “ruled out”. Since then, other European officials have joined the chorus; the Finnish defense minister and Polish foreign minister have both suggested that their countries’ forces could end up in Ukraine. These comments, combined with existing support for such measures in the Baltic states, show that there is a growing bloc of countries open to direct European intervention in the war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Emergency workers at a destroyed building after a Russian strike, Chernihiv, Ukraine, April 2024. Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters

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After more than two years fighting one of the world’s most powerful armies, Ukraine has enacted a new mobilization law—a move hailed by the West as an urgent reform. Signed into law on April 16, the legislation comes at a time when Ukraine faces a series of growing challenges in its defense against Russia, from shortages of Ukraine’s soldiers and ammunition to wavering Western support. In this view, the new law could make it easier for the government to replenish its forces as it prepares for a major Russian offensive this summer.

For Ukrainians, however, the law also represents something else.…  Seguir leyendo »

At the National Army Day parade in Tehran, April 2024. Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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Last night, Israel struck a military airbase near the city of Isfahan in Iran. Iranian officials also claimed to have shot down small drones near the northern city of Tabriz. Despite these strikes constituting a direct and overt attack on Iranian territory, the Israeli assault appears limited so far. Although Iranian leaders have promised retribution to “the tiniest act of aggression” on their soil, their response, for the time being, seems muted. The news of the bombings and their small scale sparked initial assessments that both sides might be seeking to climb down from their spiraling conflict.

Still, the latest episodes in this cycle of bomb-and-response represent a new, more troubling phase in the ongoing clash in the Middle East.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Five Futures of Russia

Europa

Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting an alignment of interests. Several weeks later, Putin announced his intention to stand for a fifth term in a choiceless election in March 2024 and later held his annual press conference, offering a phalanx of pliant journalists the privilege of hearing him smugly crow about Western fatigue over the war in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian demonstrators reacting to the attack on Israel, Tehran, April 2024. Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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In the immediate aftermath of Tehran’s spectacular, but almost entirely thwarted, attack on Israel, it appeared that the Middle East had dodged a bullet. Iran’s barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles enables its leadership to claim vengeance for Israel’s April 1 assassination of seven senior Revolutionary Guards commanders. Israelis, meanwhile, can revel in the extraordinary operational success of the country’s sophisticated air defense systems, reinforced by an impressive array of wingmen from the American, British, French, and Jordanian militaries, who helped ensure that Iran did not hit a single Israeli target.

Washington is certainly hoping that there will now be a lull in the Iranian-Israeli conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Case for Progressive Realism

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This year, voters in the United Kingdom will head to the polls as Keir Starmer’s Labour Party seeks to win power from the Conservative Party for the first time since 1997. It is difficult to overstate how much the world has changed in the intervening years. When former Prime Minister Tony Blair entered Downing Street 27 years ago, the British economy was larger than India’s and China’s combined. The United Kingdom still administered a major Asian city, Hong Kong, as a colony. The increase in global temperatures from the long-term average was less than half what it is today. And American dominance was so striking that some people saw the spread of the liberal democratic model as inevitable.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians stand near the site of an Israeli strike on a house, Rafah, April 2024. Mohammed Salem / Reuters

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In the wake of Iran’s attack on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles last weekend, Israel must decide how to calibrate its response. The spectrum of possible actions is wide and includes strikes on Iranian interests outside Iran and targets inside its borders.

Israeli leaders faced a similar decision after the Hamas attacks of October 7. Back then, the question was whether they should respond to the Hamas attack primarily by sending troops to Gaza with the goal of ending Hamas’s domination of that territory and its ability to threaten Israel militarily, or also (or instead) pursue Israel’s more powerful and dangerous adversary to the north, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah—even though it was not directly involved in the October 7 attacks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meeting via videoconference in March 2022. Photo posted to Telegram on March 14, 2022 by Vladimir Medinsky / Illustration by Foreign Affairs

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In the early hours of February 24, 2022, the Russian air force struck targets across Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow’s infantry and armor poured into the country from the north, east, and south. In the days that followed, the Russians attempted to encircle Kyiv.

These were the first days and weeks of an invasion that could well have resulted in Ukraine’s defeat and subjugation by Russia. In retrospect, it seems almost miraculous that it did not.

What happened on the battlefield is relatively well understood. What is less understood is the simultaneous intensive diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors, which could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began.…  Seguir leyendo »

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In May 2008, relations between Beijing and Tokyo reached a high point. That month, Chinese President Hu Jintao travelled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda—the first official visit by a Chinese leader to Japan in a decade. Historical rivals since the 1890s, the two countries still had many unresolved differences, such as their opposing territorial claims over islands in the East China Sea. But Fukuda regarded the fostering of friendly relations with Beijing as a core national interest; a year earlier, China had surpassed the United States as Japan’s top trading partner. During the state visit, Fukuda and Hu issued a joint statement, describing their nations as “partners engaged in cooperation, not as threats to each other”.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Israeli anti-missile system operating after Iran launched drones and missiles, seen from Ashkelon, Israel, April 2024. Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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On April 13, Iran launched Operation True Promise, its response to Israel’s April 1 attack on its consulate in Syria. Over the course of less than 24 hours, Tehran fired a combination of more than 300 hundred drones and missiles at Israeli military facilities. Senior commanders hailed the attack—which involved the first-ever direct strikes launched against Israel from Iranian territory—as successful in sending a message, even though Israel and its allies successfully downed nearly all the incoming fire.

Policymakers and pundits have known for days that the Islamic Republic would retaliate for Israel’s strike in Damascus, which killed several senior Iranian commanders and personnel.…  Seguir leyendo »

Distributing aid in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, April 2024. Ramadan Abed / Reuters

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Then Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel on April 13, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza seemed to move to the back burner. But even if the Israel-Hamas war expands, the world—and Israel—must not lose focus on helping Gazans get healthcare, find shelter, and receive food and water. No Israeli effort to stave off an Iranian threat, much less defeat Hamas for good, can succeed without a strong humanitarian aid component. Israel will need allies if the conflict widens, and the current situation in Gaza—some 1.7 million people are already displaced, and much of the population is believed to be at the risk of famine—continues ​to degrade Israel’s reputation in the Middle East and worldwide.…  Seguir leyendo »

Military personnel stand watch before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives at an event in Ghaziabad, India, April 2024. Anushree Fadnavis / Reuters

MundoAsia

On April 19, India will kick off the largest election in history. Over 44 days, more than 500 million people—or 65 percent of the country’s nearly one billion eligible voters—are expected to participate. The exercise will be spectacular, with ballots printed in over a dozen languages and distributed from islands to remote mountain communities. But the result is not really in doubt. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party are expected to return to power for a third term.

The BJP’s margin is likely to be sizable. Modi’s approval ratings are high, and the party leads in every poll.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi soldiers at a military parade in Baghdad, January 2024. Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / Reuters

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Most Iraqi prime ministers serving in the past two decades have at some point asked the U.S. military to leave their country. Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari made the first public call for a U.S. withdrawal in 2005, followed by Nouri al-Maliki in 2008, Adel Abdul-Mahdi in 2020, and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the current incumbent, in December 2023. For much of this period, these requests have originated with the Iranian-backed Islamist militia groups operating in Iraq, which have pushed the country’s political leaders to demand a drawdown of U.S. forces.

Bilateral negotiations over the past 15 years or so have dramatically reduced the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers patrolling near the border with Gaza, April 2024. Amir Cohen / Reuters

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The war Israel launched on Hamas after the group’s horrific October 7 attacks is a righteous mission. Hamas fighters massacred hundreds of innocent people, deliberately killed children and the elderly, and raped and mutilated women. They abducted hundreds of civilians—including women, infants, and octogenarians—and held them captive in dismal conditions, subject to abuse and starvation. Their actions contravened any sense of law and humanitarian principles. The slaughterers, still spattered with blood, made gleeful boasts about their atrocities that were broadcast in horrific videos and quoted in news articles. In response, Israel has waged a just war of self-defense.

But Israelis are not the only ones suffering.…  Seguir leyendo »

Confiscated captagon pills, Kafarshima, Lebanon, July 2022. Joseph Eid / AFP

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Over the past decade, the Middle East has been flooded with captagon. The drug, a mix of amphetamines and caffeine, has become especially popular in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where laborers and partiers use it to stave off hunger and sleep. It has taken both countries by storm—along with the region as a whole. Twenty years ago, almost no one in the Middle East used captagon. Today, it is cheaper and more widely available in the region than alcohol.

Syria makes most of the world’s captagon, which is a crucial source of revenue for the country and its dictator, Bashar al-Assad.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, October 2023. Sergei Savostyanov / Sputnik / Reuters

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Just a decade ago, most U.S. and European officials were dismissive about the durability of the emerging partnership between China and Russia. The thinking in Western capitals was that the Kremlin’s ostentatious rapprochement with China since 2014 was doomed to fail because ties between the two Eurasian giants would always be undercut by the growing power asymmetry in China’s favor, the lingering mistrust between the two neighbors over a number of historical disputes, and the cultural distance between the two societies and between their elites. No matter how hard Russian President Vladimir Putin might try to woo the Chinese leadership, the argument went, China would always value its ties to the United States and to U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »