Foreign Policy (Continuación)

Iranian soldiers stand next to Iranian Shahab-3 and Kheibar missiles during a rally marking Jerusalem day in Tehran, on April 29. -/AFP via Getty Images

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For the first time, Iran is involved in a major war on the European continent. Iranian military advisors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are on the ground in occupied Ukraine—and possibly Belarus—to help Russia rain down deadly Iranian kamikaze drones on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. According to an Israeli news report citing a Ukrainian official, 10 Iranians have already been killed in a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions. Tehran is now preparing to up the ante by providing Russia not only with potentially thousands of additional drones but also, for the first time, with two types of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to supplement Russia’s own dwindling stocks.…  Seguir leyendo »

The emblem of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is unveiled at the Qatar National Archive building in Doha, Qatar, on Sept. 3, 2019.Christopher Pike/Getty Images for Supreme Committee 2022

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In 2010, days after international soccer governing body FIFA awarded the 2022 World Cup to Qatar, the first of many damning op-eds about the country landed on the editorial page of the Guardian. The article—entitled “Let Qatar 2022 not be built on brutality”—was authored by a representative of Human Rights Watch and detailed the exploitive treatment of the migrant laborers who have built stadiums and other tournament infrastructure. Ever since, there have been regular reports of abuses or calls to boycott the World Cup. Now, less than one month before play begins, there is a new flurry of critical stories about Qatar, focused not only on workers’ rights but things like the country’s supposedly fabricated soccer culture.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lightning strikes as a column of ash surrounds the crater of Taal Volcano as it erupts on Jan. 12, 2020, as seen from Tagaytay city, Cavite province, Philippines. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

Internacional

Regular readers of this column know that I’m not inclined to be alarmist. Although there are times when I worry about the costs and risks of certain foreign-policy decisions, I tend to push back on the tendency for foreign-policy experts to inflate threats and assume the worst—but not always. Sometimes, the wolf really is at the door, and it’s time to start worrying.

What’s troubling me today is the gnawing fear that we are living through a series of disruptions that are overwhelming our collective ability to respond. World politics is never completely static, of course, but we haven’t seen as serious a sequence of shocks in a long time.…  Seguir leyendo »

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan gestures during a lawyers convention in Lahore, Pakistan, on Sept. 21. ARIF ALI/AFP via Getty Images

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Pakistani politics have always revolved around the country’s military. Civilian politicians compete for support while criticizing—or seeking covert help from—a ubiquitous security establishment. Since his ouster as prime minister last April, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan has become the latest to challenge this system. But Khan’s polarizing rhetoric is only adding to Pakistan’s chaos—not marking the advent of a  revolution.

The government elected after Khan’s removal via a no-confidence vote initially tolerated the former prime minister’s attacks on generals, judges, and political rivals in addition to his conspiracy theories about his ouster being the result of a U.S.-backed plot. Unlike previous civilian leaders who fell afoul of the military, Khan was not immediately arrested, charged with corruption, or disqualified from future elections by judicial fiat.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) is welcomed by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Alsalam Royal Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15. Royal Court of Saudi Arabia /Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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U.S. President Joe Biden was never enthusiastic about making a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia to make up with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And three months after the  fist bump that went ’round the world, it’s easy to see why.

Last week, that fist bump was replaced by a Saudi sucker punch as OPEC+, a cartel of top oil producers, decided to cut its oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day (though  oil analysts say the cut may prove to be significantly lower). There’s no doubt that the primary motive was to keep prices high and maintain Russian-Saudi and OPEC+ cohesion in anticipation of further economic downturns and perhaps a U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

An offshore natural gas production platform is seen from Dor, a coastal town in northern Israel, on Dec. 31, 2019. JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images

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Last month, we visited a Hezbollah tunnel on the Israeli-Lebanese border as part of a bipartisan group of Middle East experts. Dug almost a football field deep—with twisting staircases, advanced lighting, and oxygen cables—the tunnel’s sole purpose was to deliver Hezbollah terrorists from the Lebanese side of the border deep into Israeli territory. Equally menacing was the sight of active Hezbollah outposts less than 100 yards from the discovered tunnel, where the organization conducts intelligence and stores rockets ready to strike deep into Israel in the event of a conflict. The visit underscored that the Israeli-Lebanese border remains at a boil, and developments over the last few months have pushed the two sides closer to conflict than at any time since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Workers water a manure stack in Ruhengeri, Rwanda, on Sept. 19, 2018. Farming in much of Africa is still characterized by low fertilizer use—and low crop yields. Camille Delbos/Art In All of Us/Corbis via Getty Images

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food shortages—already worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic—and shed light on global agriculture’s massive nutrient and energy needs. Most fertilizers are made from coal or natural gas, and Western sanctions on Russia, which is the world’s top fertilizer exporter, have further increased natural gas and fertilizer prices. In June, the cost of fertilizer nearly surpassed its August 2008 peak. As a result, farmers could be forced to reduce global fertilizer use by as much as 7 percent next season—the largest decline since 2008. Use is projected to fall the most in sub-Saharan Africa. In May, the president of the African Development Bank warned that fertilizer shortages could lead to a 20 percent decline in food production on the continent.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man takes a selfie in front of an abandoned military fort in Kinmen, Taiwan, on Sept. 24. Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

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When U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi led a congressional visit to Taiwan on Aug. 2, China indulged in a festival of furor. With impassioned rhetoric, economic warfare, and antagonistic military exercises, China aimed, in part, to stoke fears that war might be just around the corner. Tread carefully, Beijing intimated, for one more misstep could lead to disaster.

But does peace in the Taiwan Strait truly stand on a knife’s edge?

The Chinese Communist Party wants the international community to accept that China’s approach to Taiwan is governed by some supposedly immutable law of cross-strait physics: For every action on the part of Taiwan or its foreign supporters, there will be a disproportionate and opposite reaction.…  Seguir leyendo »

The city of Mariupol, Ukraine, is seen on Sept. 15. Stringer/AFP via Getty Images

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In a fresh violation of international law, Russian President Vladimir Putin, announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory on Friday, complete with a celebration in Moscow and a rambling speech. Putin is seeking to bludgeon Ukraine and the West into submission not only because he is desperate to vindicate his grandiose plan for conquering Ukraine but also to avoid any accounting for the war crimes that he and his henchmen have already committed.

But Ukrainians have managed to outwit Putin, and they serve as witnesses to his heinous crimes. Take the dramatic flight of Orthodox Ukrainian priest Pavel Kostel. A clever village elder and a country backroad unknown to the Russian invaders spared his life in March.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranians march during a pro-hijab rally in the capital, Tehran, on Sept. 23. STR/AFP via Getty Images

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The latest round of mass protests in Iran erupted over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman. She  died on Sept. 16 at the hands of the so-called morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s rules on mandatory veiling in public.

Amini’s tragic death is yet another reminder of how the Islamist rulers in Tehran remain tone-deaf to the demands of the Iranian people. Opposition to mandatory wearing of the veil, or hijab, is one in a long list of public grievances.

The violence that led to Amini’s death was not accidental. It is part and parcel of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s attitude toward any political dissent.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Spanish Emergency Military Unit try to put out a wildfire near the village of Verin in northwestern Spain on Aug. 4. Migue Riopa/AFP via Getty Images

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As the war in Ukraine continued this summer, with billions of dollars’ worth of military aid pouring into Kyiv from its allies and partners, governments around the world were also busy deploying their militaries to deal with a less conventional threat: climate change.

In Poland, troops disposed of thousands of fish on the banks of the Oder River that had died due to rising water temperatures and pollution. In Mexico, military airplanes tried to spur rain after weeks of drought by seeding clouds with silver iodide and acetone. In Switzerland, the army airlifted water to thirsty livestock in dry mountain pastures.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a summit on the Syrian civil war in Istanbul on Oct. 27, 2018. OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

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Ukraine’s successful counterattack means that for the first time ever in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 22 years in power, he has to deal with elites who disagree with him—on strategic decisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine and how the war may end. Having launched the war not just without any internal discussions, but without even informing key players, Putin has taken huge risks politically. If the war were going well, that gamble would have paid off, but today, as Ukraine is counterattacking and Russia is retreating, questions about Putin’s decisions are mounting. There are fears that Russia may lose outright. If the president fails to convince the elites that he remains a strong leader with a clear understanding of where he is taking the country, uncertainty may become a significant political risk to Putin’s regime.…  Seguir leyendo »

Visitors walk among cannons at the former Suomenlinna island fortress in Helsinki on May 26. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

EuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior

Along with Estonia, Finland has been in the vanguard of calls for a European Union visa ban on Russian tourists. As well as gaining strong support in several EU states, the proposed ban has also attracted fierce criticism, including accusations that it would amount to a “new Iron Curtain”.

Such accusations are ill-founded and unfair. While there are legitimate arguments against a visa ban, describing it as a Cold War idea dismisses the real problems these countries are facing today—and the history of their relationships with Russia.

The debate in Finland is a good example of the practical as well as symbolic reasoning behind the ban—and the likelihood that this debate will not go away anytime soon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states pose for a family photo during a summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 16. Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik/AFP

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may not have changed the global world order, but it has certainly changed the geopolitics of Asia. Before the war, if Belarus was Russia’s closest ally to the west and China to the east, Kazakhstan was unquestionably its greatest ally to the south. Unlike Belarus or China, however, Kazakhstan is not looking for any extra opportunities in its relations with Russia, instead trying to quietly dismantle an alliance it never really wanted without provoking Moscow’s wrath. Chinese President Xi Jinping picking Kazakhstan for his first foreign trip since January 2020, and promising to support Kazakhstan in “safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”, gives a golden opportunity to further this goal.…  Seguir leyendo »

A soldier of the Polish Army sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump military exercises of the VJTF forces on June 18, 2015 in Zagan, Poland. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

InternacionalOTAN

In a world of constant change, the endurance of the trans-Atlantic partnership stands out. NATO is older than I am, and I’m no youngster. It has been around even longer than Queen Elizabeth II reigned in Britain. Its original rationale—to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”—is less relevant than it used to be (Russia’s war in Ukraine notwithstanding), yet it still commands reflexive reverence on both sides of the Atlantic. If you’re an aspiring policy wonk hoping to make your mark in Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, etc., learning to praise NATO’s enduring virtues is still the smart career move.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian Basij paramilitary forces take part in a rally marking al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day near a Shahab-3 missile (background) on a street in Tehran, on Apr. 29. AFP via Getty Images

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A decade ago, then-Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak would regularly come to Washington and hold high-level meetings with senior officials in the Obama administration. Iran’s nuclear program was the central focus of those meetings, and I recall his frequent admonition: “You say there is time to deal with it, but I fear we will be told this until we are told, ‘it is too late and there is nothing to be done but live with it.’” I was one of those in the U.S. government reassuring him that we would not let this happen.

However, with Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), now saying the Iranian nuclear program “is galloping ahead”, I fear that Barak’s words may have been prophetic.…  Seguir leyendo »

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stand in front of the Brandenburg Gate, illuminated in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, in Berlin on May 9. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

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Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe’s military weakness, and the United States’ outsized role in the Western response have led many officials and observers to conclude that now is finally the time to ensure Europe can defend itself—and become an autonomous strategic actor. Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz joined the chorus calling for a “stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union”. Claiming that Washington’s focus has shifted to competition with China in the Indo-Pacific, he concluded that “Europe is our future”.

In theory, the logic of European strategic autonomy is attractive. After all, the European Union has almost 450 million people, a GDP of $18 trillion, and more $200 billion in defense spending by its member countries.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman watches United Arab Emirates Armed Forces helicopters during a military demonstration in Dubai, UAE, on March 5. KARIM SAHIB/AFP via Getty Images

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When U.S. President Joe Biden made the short hop from Israel to Saudi Arabia aboard Air Force One in July, it aptly symbolized the Middle East’s growing regional connections. Nearly two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords—the historic peace agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain—the next steps in Middle Eastern cooperation already appear under way. Israel, several Gulf Arab states, and the United States are working to create a regional alliance on air defense. Although practical cooperation is still limited, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz claimed in June that the nascent air defense partnership had already helped neutralize Iranian attacks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Manuela Schwesig, state premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Markus Söder, state premier of Bavaria, visit a site that will feed an existing pipeline network with liquefied natural gas in Lubmin, Germany, on Aug. 30. ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images

EuropaUnión EuropeaEconomía

Europe is in the middle of an energy crisis. Uncertainty over the flow of natural gas owing to Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused a spike in prices. The price of natural gas has soared to as much as $500 per barrel of oil equivalent, 10 times the normal average, fueling fears of winter shortages and cold homes.

Key commodities have already been affected. Fertilizer production, which requires large inputs of natural gas, is being shut down due to high prices. Manufacturers are hoarding glass in anticipation of future shortages. Climate change has made the situation worse, as a historic drought is drying up Europe’s rivers and cutting into hydroelectric capacity.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, holds a press conference at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, on March 1, 2021. JOE KLAMAR/AFP via Getty Images

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“Grossi is still the main obstacle to the finalization” of a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, proclaimed Nour News, an outlet frequently used by Iran’s supreme leader for unofficial commentary. Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), may in fact be the last man standing against a shorter, weaker version of the 2015 nuclear deal that would irreparably harm the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Despite imminent pressure from all sides, including Washington, Grossi is refusing to close his agency’s probe into Tehran’s suspect atomic activities to pave the way for the accord’s revival.

Iran demands the permanent closure of the IAEA’s four-year-old investigation before a new deal can unfold, aiming to keep its nuclear weapons work hidden from the prying eyes of inspectors.…  Seguir leyendo »