PS21 (Continuación)

The Promenade des Anglais on the morning after the 2016 Nice attack

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

In Munich a gunman shot nine people, in Würzburg a man attacked train passengers with a knife and an axe, in Ansbach a suicide bomber detonated his bomb at a music festival and in Nice a man purposefully ran over pedestrians in a truck. All these attacks took place in the last year and were executed by individuals not belonging to a terrorist organization. It is therefore not surprising that lone wolf terrorism is seen as an increasing problem.

Terrorist acts planned and perpetrated by individual actors are not a new phenomenon, but have recently come to the forefront of public awareness again with a perceived hike in attacks of this kind.…  Seguir leyendo »

Parade of Taiwanese Independence Supporters

MundoAsia, ,

A year has passed since the election of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), an independence leaning party in Taiwan. At the time, these results were met with strong objections from the Chinese government because of the possible impact on the sovereignty of the island state. In Western media, coverage of the election strongly emphasised the importance of this issue in the decision to elect the DPP. Despite all of this, a year has gone by without any concrete movement towards independence.

Although a strong majority of Taiwanese agree that the country should be independent, there are varying responses when it comes to the question of whether or not this will really occur in the short or even long term.…  Seguir leyendo »

Imagining 2030: the European Union 15 years after Brexit

EuropaUnión EuropeaUE a debate

As Lord Nigel Farage does the round of life-streaming chat shows in the run up to the fifteenth anniversary of the Brexit vote, it is hard to believe that the 67-year-old is still almost 4 years younger than Donald Trump was when he won the US presidential election that same year.

Both Brexit and the Trump victory were seen at the time very much as the revenge of an older generation that, younger liberals clearly hoped, would soon be gone again. That hasn’t quite happened – or at least, it hasn’t happened yet. Like so much else in politics, however, all sides of the political spectrum may well be reluctantly concluding that both defendants were both not quite as good and not quite as bad as they might initially have feared.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea

Looking back on 2016, it has been a year full of ups and downs for Germany.

The German economy continued growing and is still the largest economy in Europe; and under the auspices of Angela Merkel’s strong leadership, Germany remains the most influential state in Europe.

The political landscape around Germany has however changed dramatically. Brett market a a significant shift in Europe, potentially threatening the cohesion of the union, but also making Germany the most powerful player in the negotiations.

Populism has risen around Germany, both in long-term allies like the US, and close neighbours such as Poland, Hungary, France, The Netherlands and Austria, to name only a few examples.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man stands next to assailants’ car in Garland, Texas, USA, used in a lone wolf attack carried out by two gunmen in 2015

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

In Munich a gunman shot nine people, in Würzburg a man attacked train passengers with a knife and an axe, in Ansbach a suicide bomber detonated his bomb at a music festival and in Nice a man purposefully ran over pedestrians in a truck. Each of these attacks took place in the last year and were executed by individuals not belonging to a terrorist organization.

It is therefore not surprising that lone wolf terrorism is seen as an increasing problem. Terrorist acts planned and perpetrated by individual actors are not a new phenomenon, but have recently come to the forefront of public awareness again with what is apparently a significant increase in attacks of this kind.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Colombia is entering its post-conflict era as a peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC) has been ratified by the Colombian Congress, while talks with the country’s other insurgent movement, the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberacion Nacional, ELN ) will commence in January 2017. Hence, it is natural that analysts, including the authors, are discussing what the government’s priorities should be toward maintaining peace and bringing more development and justice to post-conflict Colombia. One issue that President Juan Manuel Santos is paying particular attention to is the removal of mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica,

President Yahya Jammeh’s rejection of the election results will test the region’s response to democratic challenges. Although a small player in the region, Banjul is the home of the African Union commission; so it’s response to Jammeh’s claims of foul play will act as a barometer for tolerance of leaders in the region who are unwilling to concede defeat.

Last night I was writing an article about how West African states lead by example, compared to their Eastern relatives, in the transition of power following elections. Senegal, Nigeria and now Ghana, all have shining track records for peaceful transitions of power.…  Seguir leyendo »

Sudanese President Omar al Bashir’s ICC case file is pictured on a desk.

MundoÁfrica

Many African countries have been threatening to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC) over accusations that the court is disproportionately targeting Africans. Recently, these threats have been realised by a growing number of African states. In the last month, the ICC has suffered three possible withdrawals: Burundi, South Africa and now the tiny West African state of Gambia has followed suit in issuing withdraw notice. Could this spell the beginning of the end for the ICC?

The court’s 1st case was referred in 2003 by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni concerning the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and their activities in the north of the country.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

2016 has been a bumpy road so far for politics, most notably with an unexpected Brexit vote and (according to the polls) an equally unexpected victory for Donald Trump over his opponent Hillary Clinton in the race for the presidency in the US. Many Europeans feel slightly insecure in light of this new political order and the year 2017 promises to bring other decisive political events in the form of elections in France, Hungary, Norway and the Netherlands. The far-right leader of the Front National, Marine Le Pen, is ranked high in the polls and hopes to secure victory riding on the high anxiety resulting from the recent terror attacks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Is China’s growing appetite a threat to global food security?

MundoAsia, ,

Over the course of the last two decades, China has become the blueprint for rising nations by becoming the dominant power across the East Asia and beyond. Yet, the People’s Republic is not without weakness and it is facing growing concerns, one of which is all too often overlooked in discussions of national security.

The Asian superpower is attempting to feed a population four times greater than that of the United States, on arable land which amounts to less 1/10 hectare per person, according to the World Bank. Historically, China has had mixed success in providing food for its growing population.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Hamas Model: What makes Hamas so resilient?

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

Since the 9/11 attacks, terrorism and the corresponding academic field of terrorism studies have been filling the headlines and cover-stories of newspapers and provided opening stories for news shows on TV. Not one day goes by without reference in the media to terrorist groups, a new terror attack or the question of how the West should respond to this threat. Despite the attention the subject gets in the media, the work of Terrorism Studies scholars is often disregarded in popular debates. While government and other officials are engaging in constant conversation with the scholars and their findings, citizens as a whole find themselves surrounded by popular notions of ‘the War on Terror’, but are rarely given information about the origins and dynamics of the groups engaging in terrorist acts.…  Seguir leyendo »

The problem with outsourcing Europe’s migrant crisis

MundoÁfricaEuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Inmigración

The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID)- the government body responsible for the Britain’s  overseas aid budget  and major backer of development organisations including VSO and Tearfund- recently announced its plan to back a proposal to fund the creation of an industrial centre in Ethiopia which aims to create 100 000 jobs, some of will go to asylum seekers, in order to create incentives for people to stay in Ethiopia and stem the flow of migrants watering Europe’s ‘crisis’.

Ethiopia currently hosts the highest number of refugees on the African continent, due to a combination of its unfortunate and unstable neighbours, its open-door asylum policy and it being an ideal stopover point for people migrating northwards to Europe from Eastern and Central Africa.…  Seguir leyendo »

Portion of a Qing scroll on battling 19th Century piracy in the South China Sea (Wikipedia)

MundoAsia, ,

On 12th July 2016, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea at The Hague ruled that Chinese claims to territorial rights in the South China Sea have no legal basis, after a case was brought to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013 by the Philippines. The tension in the South China Sea is at a fever pitch, with China vowing that it “will take all necessary measures to protect its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,”[i] countered by the U.S. sending an aircraft carrier and fighter jets to the region. This ruling certainly does not mark the end of the South China Sea dispute.…  Seguir leyendo »

Imagining 2030: Out of a desert

MundoOriente Próximo

Imagining 2030 is a series in which PS21 writers describe the world as they see it in 14 years time.

In an unknown spot somewhere in the deserts of Arabia far away from any capital stood the tiny village of Ar-Rashid on a plateau surrounded by dunes. It was night and the village was covered in a type of darkness only found in remote places. The sky was vaguely lit up with all possible stars large and small. Seen from space, not even a minuscule light was visible to pinpoint the village in the grand, dark sea the desert formed.

On a plateau, a few houses had been built of cheap bricks and covered with thin metal roofing.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

If exhausted and overstretched US and European officials could have done without one thing this weekend, it would have been a military coup in Turkey.

Turkey had remained relatively stable during the “Arab Spring” convulsions that have wracked the rest of the region since 2011. Indeed, its messy but in some sense is functional democracy was seen as one of the few role models for nearby states. Now, those assumptions will have to be undone.

Idiosyncratic, deeply divided and always a difficult partner, Turkey is central to the West’s strategy for dealing with a host of major crises, particularly the conflict with Islamic State and Europe’s refugee crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Leaders of African nations in the Family Photograph, at the inaugural ceremony of the 3rd India Africa Forum Summit 2015, in New Delhi on October 29, 2015.

MundoÁfricaMundoAsia

In its relations with the African continent, the Indian state claims that historical and cultural commonalities between the two naturally engender unique and mutually-beneficial foreign relations. The main tenets of such solidarity are a shared colonial past, helped by the large Indian diaspora in Africa, and the history of the Non-Aligned Movement, of which India, and many African nations were members. This sentiment was also evident at the UN in 2010; India’s representative to the UN, Hardeep Singh Puri, remarked that ‘India’s own links with Africa go back a long way. They are anchored in a history of civilizational contact and friendship across the Indian Ocean.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesNuevas Tecnologías,

Imagining 2030 is a series in which PS21 writers describe the world as they see it in 14 years time.

“That’s it, right there,” said Ashik. Through beat-up VR goggles he saw an over-the-shoulder view of one unmanned underwater vehicle approaching another, larger, unmanned underwater tender. What he saw was only a simulated rendering based on inertial navigation data, but he knew that if he could see them, both machines would be visibly in need of overhauls – or retirement. The words “Operator – Take Manual Control” flashing across his lower field of vision piqued his curiosity.

“Uh, Rima…you still awake?”…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Imagining 2030 is a series in which PS21 writers describe the world as they see it in 14 years time.

The year is 2030. 10 years have passed since the third Gulf War, and the spectre of conflict again appears on the horizon. The cause of the war between a US-Saudi Coalition and an Iranian nuclear state, with surprisingly little Israeli involvement, is now well known. President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric in the lead up to his presidential nomination in 2016 was not all bluster. Thankfully, it was his only “serious” foreign policy venture.

The weak Jus ad bellum for the 2020 conflict – Iran’s “imminent” use of their nuclear arsenal on Israel – proved unfounded.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

The establishment of diplomatic ties with Cuba is the beginning of a new era for U.S. Foreign Policy & National Security.  What comes along with this relationship is a new bilateral security agreement.  This phenomenon reminds me of a scene from the movie Bad Boys II, where Will Smith and Martin Lawrence accidently ended up on Cuban soil chasing a big time criminal.  They chased the villain all the way to the fence of Guantanamo Bay.  However, the U.S. Navy could not help them as long as the convict was on Cuban soil.  This movie illustrated the importance of a working relationship with Cuba in order to pursue, for example, search warrants, rescue missions or any other criminal activities within Cuba.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Imagining 2030 is a series in which PS21 writers describe the world as they see it in 14 years time.

It is the year 2030 and Latin America is hungover.  Not from too many Pisco sours but from binge drinking on a lethal cocktail of home-grown terrorism, drug trafficking, gang violence and total economic collapse. It has now awoken, and its “hair of the dog” is beginning to take effect.

History has been made in Colombia! With a 50-year-war with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) over, Colombia is now a major player on the world stage participating in international organisations such as NATO (having recently become a Partnership for Peace member) and, at the United Nations, where Colombia has a number of UN peacekeeping and training missions in Africa under its command.…  Seguir leyendo »