The world will be watching in horror if Russia invades Ukraine this week — but just watching. Ukraine will fight alone, as Russian tanks roll across the flat, frozen terrain; precision bombs destroy key targets near Kyiv and other cities; and the country becomes a killing field unlike anything Europe has seen since 1945.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will quickly win the initial, tactical phase of this war, if it comes. The vast army that Russia has arrayed along Ukraine’s borders could probably seize the capital of Kyiv in several days and control the country in little more than a week, U.S. officials believe.
But then Putin’s real battle would begin — as Russia and its Ukrainian proxies try to stabilize a country whose people largely detest them. If just 10 percent of Ukraine’s 40 million people decided to actively resist occupation, they would mount a powerful insurgency. Small bands of motivated fighters subverted America’s overwhelming military power in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Russia’s problems wouldn’t just be inside the borders of Ukraine. As Putin tried to digest what U.S. officials hope will be a Ukrainian “porcupine,” Russia’s economy would be squeezed tight by sanctions; its business and political leaders would become international pariahs; and much of the wealth Putin and his chums have accumulated would be frozen.
Ukraine might seem a triumphal victory for Putin at first, but it’s unlikely to have a happy ending. When leaders fight unnecessary “wars of choice” without a clear endgame, they often confront catastrophic unintended consequences. Think of Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, which helped create Hezbollah, or President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in 2003, which destabilized the Middle East and made Iran a regional superpower. Putin would be the latest leader to join what historian Barbara Tuchman described as “The March of Folly.”
President Biden’s response has rested on three pillars, according to senior officials. First, he believes the rules-based global order would be threatened by an unprovoked Russian invasion, and that Putin must pay a severe cost if he takes this lawless action. Second, Biden is determined to avoid any direct military contact between Russian and U.S. forces, which would risk nuclear war. Third, he is convinced that, as in the Cold War, the security of the United States and its European friends depends on the unity and strength of the NATO alliance.
Russia has assembled the forces for a pulverizing offensive. U.S. and European officials describe the order of battle: About 130,000 combat troops encircle Ukraine on three sides, with many more providing support. When the United States invaded Iraq, with a population and land area similar to Ukraine’s, it had a smaller combat force.
Russia’s ground forces are just the beginning. Scores of Russian bombers are being loaded with precision-guided munitions, and dozens of artillery batteries are ready, along with nearly a dozen missile batteries. Eleven amphibious ships ring the Black Sea coast, ready to disgorge marines onto Ukraine’s southern underbelly; airborne forces are prepared to land behind the lines, near Kyiv, Odessa, Lviv and other targets; and engineer battalions are preparing to build bridges across Ukraine’s crosshatch of rivers. Meantime, to check any NATO thoughts of intervention, Russian nuclear bombers, missile forces and submarines will be on alert this month in a hastily scheduled “exercise.”
The dirty part of this war would be fought by special forces: In the hours before an invasion, the “Spetsnaz” units of the GRU and the intelligence teams of the FSB might seize key targets in Kyiv and other cities, such as radio and television stations, power facilities and government installations. Assassination teams might target senior officials; Russian “false flag” operations that appeared to be Ukrainian would confound and confuse. Russia would seize control of the electronic-warfare space, so that it could jam communications by the Ukrainian government or military commanders. Ukrainian troops might want to fight, but they would have difficulty coordinating their actions with commanders.
Looking at the map, U.S. officials can see how the Russian invasion might proceed. From the north, many thousands of Russian troops are gathered at the western edge of Russia, ready to cross the border and surge toward Kyiv, overwhelming Ukrainian forces a fraction of that size. Farther west, a similar number of Russian troops are in southern Belarus, ready for a second thrust at Kyiv, again facing a minimal Ukrainian force.
The bloodiest fighting could come in eastern Ukraine, where nearly half of its army of about 250,000 is based. Russian forces could simultaneously attack from the southeast, across the separatist-controlled Donbass region, and from the east, near Kharkiv. This pincer movement might try to envelop the Ukrainian army and destroy it over several weeks. An entrapped army, facing shattering defeat, would bring desperate international calls for a cease-fire — which Putin would likely grant only on his terms.
Putin probably won’t decide until the last moment precisely what he will select from this meat grinder of options. Political leaders often wait until the last minute to make such decisions, to retain maximum flexibility. But U.S. military officials say Putin has sent orders to his commanders to prepare for possible battle by the middle of this week, when the ground in central Ukraine will have frozen more than a foot deep, allowing rapid tank advance.
Putin’s ruthless determination against Ukraine, which has been unfolding for a decade, is a product of his convictions and life experience. He truly seems to believe that Russia is threatened from the West; that it needs buffer zones to protect against foreign aggression like those it maintained for centuries. His own family suffered bitterly in the siege of Leningrad by the Nazis in World War II. His father was wounded in battle and limped the rest of his life; his mother was left for dead in a pile of corpses and survived only because someone heard her moan. When Putin talks about the weight of Russian history, he feels it viscerally.
In the days ahead, we’ll see a frantic, last-ditch effort to find what diplomats like to call an “off-ramp.” That seems unlikely, given all the military hardware in place and NATO’s refusal to make the concessions Putin is demanding.
The world will shudder if the tank and missile assault begins, as we witness a weak country confronting a blitzkrieg, alone. The cries for a negotiated settlement will increase, with some proposing new concessions to placate Putin. But after that global shock will come a wave of rage and a demand that Russia pay a price for its aggression. Then this war will enter the porcupine phase, in which Putin, too, will feel the pain.
David Ignatius writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column for The Washington Post. His latest novel is “The Paladin.”