srael will hold national elections on Tuesday. Here’s a guide for the totally unfamiliar

Israeli demonstrators carry the Israeli flag while protesting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on March 20. (Sebastian Scheiner/AP)
Israeli demonstrators carry the Israeli flag while protesting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on March 20. (Sebastian Scheiner/AP)

Israel will hold its fourth election in two years on March 23. Although electoral upheaval is common in Israeli politics, with elections occurring every 2.5 years on average, the recent instability represents a significant deterioration in the functioning of Israeli democracy.

In many ways the outcome of the election is already clear. The next Israeli government will be right wing in its economic and defense policies — regardless of whether it is led by current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In fact, calling this election a referendum on Netanyahu both promotes populist personalized rhetoric and hides the real policies at stake.

There’s much at stake

Israel’s right-wing bloc wants to legalize outposts in the West Bank. It also aspires to limit the supreme court, giving the Knesset, Israel’s legislative body, the power to overrule the court with a simple majority. The “constitutional revolution” is a major point of tension between right-wing and centrist parties.

Of the 39 parties running in the elections, only a dozen or so are likely to pass the electoral threshold and win seats in the 120-seat legislature. The large number of parties and the segmentation of voters decreases the likelihood that any party will enjoy a significant amount of support. With no party likely to win a majority, what counts are the coalition alliances, more than “horse race” coverage of individual candidates.

Even if leftist and centrist parties joined to unseat Netanyahu, they wouldn’t have enough votes. Polling suggests these parties might win a combined 50 seats, and they need at least 61 to unseat him. For Netanyahu to lose the premiership he has held since 2009, parties from across the entire political spectrum would need to join. Though possible, such significant policy differences probably will result in political squabbling and ineffective governance.

What do Israeli voters think?

Israeli politics have trended right for the past couple of decades. According to pollster Dahlia Scheindlin, about 55 percent of Israeli voters support parties that are economically neoliberal and neoconservative in their defense policy (like Likud and New Hope), religious Zionists (Yamina, Religious Zionism) and ultra-Orthodox Jewish (United Torah Judaism, Shas). These parties are primarily defined by their objection to religious separation from the state, efforts to override the judicial branch and open support of annexation of Palestinian territories.

Centrist parties distinguish themselves from the right in their position on the role of religion. These parties support Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, with an emphasis on “democratic” — they argue that Israeli identity is principally civil and secular. They share the economic and defense agenda of the right. Around 25 percent of Israeli voters support centrist parties like Yesh Atid and Blue White.

About 20 percent of Israeli voters support the left-wing bloc, and parties like Labor party, Meretz and Joint List. These parties advocate for generous welfare policies, negotiation with Palestinians and progressive social issues.

What coalitions could emerge from this mix?

Likud, currently polling to win around 30 seats, is likely to be the largest faction in the legislature. This is Netanyahu’s party, and his support hasn’t changed despite his 2019 indictment on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery — or the ongoing protests against him. A court decision to delay Netanyahu’s corruption trial until after the elections reduces the already low likelihood that it will have any effect on voters.

Netanyahu can draw on coalition support from the ultra Orthodox parties and the far right, where three parties — National Union, Otzma and Noam — are running together as the “Religious Zionism” list. These parties are primarily known for supporting the implementation of Jewish religious law in Israel, advocating for disenfranchisement of Palestinians and supporting acts of terrorism against Palestinians and left-wing activists, and being anti-LGBTQ and misogynistic. Although ideologically aligned, the leadership of their respective lists do not get along. Netanyahu encouraged them to run together, promising them guaranteed seats and offices should Likud establish the governing coalition.

Former Knesset member and education minister Gideon Saar aspired to be Netanyahu’s main challenger on the right. Yair Lapid, of the centrist Yesh Atid party, also hoped to offer an alternative to Netanyahu. Neither appears likely to gain enough support among right-wing, anti-Netanyahu, Jewish-Israeli voters to produce a change in leadership.

What’s happening on the left?

How will Israel’s three left-wing parties do? Meretz and the Labor Party are expected to win four to six seats respectively, maintaining their status of the past decade as small opposition parties.

Polling at around 10 seats is the Joint List, a big-tent coalition of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel that caucuses with the left. After last year’s elections the conservative Ra’am party, representing the Islamic movement, opted to run separately from the Joint List. This defection potentially allows the Joint List to make greater inroads among Jewish left-wing voters.

The power of Arab voters has become increasingly apparent. They received significant attention from major Jewish parties competing to establish a governing coalition. Leaders from Likud and Yesh Atid visited Arab cities for public events. Palestinian citizens of Israel vote almost exclusively for Palestinian parties, however. The increase in the number of seats captured by Palestinian parties in recent years is due to increased turnout in the Palestinian-Israeli community, not by Jewish parties siphoning off their votes.

Will the elections result in a stable government?

Whatever coalition emerges, it probably will be unstable. The constantly changing landscape of Israel’s many parties means that most do not have the necessary infrastructure to properly educate, inform and mobilize voters. This negatively affects electoral outcomes and results in poor short-term and long-term policy implementation. It also does not bode well for parties’ ability to coordinate and negotiate with other parties.

This means that whether or not Netanyahu manages to once again head the government, Israel probably will continue to face the same political stalemate — raising the prospects of yet another election not too far in the future.

Noa Balf is a research affiliate at the Haifa Feminist Institute and Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies researching Israeli political parties, gender and politics, and race and ethnic politics. Find her on Twitter @NoaBalf.

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