When Germany's chancellor Hannelore Kraft met France's president François Hollande in a sunny Berlin earlier this week, they agreed on a compelling strategy to save the eurozone. With no elections in any eurozone country for the next two years, they were able to stretch the austerity timeline for Greece, Spain and Italy, add some elements of growth stimulus, including increased demand in Germany itself, but also keep up the essential pressure for fiscal discipline and structural reform. As a result, even devastated Greece began to glimpse light at the end of the tunnel.
In our dreams, fellow Europeans, in our dreams. The reality is different. While François Hollande and Angela Merkel – not Kraft, the Social Democratic victor in last Sunday's North Rhine-Westphalia elections and possible candidate for chancellor in 2013 – meet under thunder and lightning-torn skies, there is capital flight from Greece (more than €5bn since the 6 May election), fear and trembling in the markets, self-reinforcing talk of Greek exit from the euro and another month of uncertainty until another election in Athens. Meanwhile, back in Berlin, Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble still preaches the gospel of Ordoliberalism as if it were revealed truth. And everywhere, all the time, there is that tiresome old Greek invention called democracy.
I recently heard a line attributed to the former Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, now the head of the euro group, to the effect that "we know exactly what we should do; we just don't know how to get re-elected if we do it". It's not entirely clear that Merkel and Schäuble do know what is needed, since their economic doctrine is flawed. But even if they did, or if it were already federal chancellor Kraft, there would still be the problem of an election imminent somewhere in Europe, and the chronic difficulty politicians find in telling home truths to people whose votes they are courting.
Each country has its own home truth that its politicians are failing to tell. Britain's untold home truth is that it cannot have its cake and eat it, being a semi-detached member of the EU while continuing to enjoy all the economic benefits of membership. France's untold home truth is that it is no longer an equal partner of Germany.
Germany's untold home truth is that it is going to pay for this mess anyway, one way or another. Many of Greece's bad debts have already been socialised via the European Financial Stability Facility, the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB). Germany has a major share of each of them, but particularly of the last. "Target 2" may not yet be a household phrase in Germany, but it should be.
Through the ECB's so-called target 2 liquidity system, Germany had – at the end of last month – some €644bn of claims on other eurozone central banks, a sum equivalent to roughly a quarter of German GDP. If Greece exited the euro, what would happen to its central bank's target 2 liability to the ECB, and through the ECB to Germany? Nobody knows, but in all probability, the ECB would just write it off. That wouldn't break the bank, but Germany would end up footing part of the bill. If Greek default had a knock-on effect on other weaker eurozone countries, Germany would have to reach into its pocket to shore them up – directly or indirectly – or face wholly unpredictable consequences.
Greece's untold, or only half-told, home truth is that its only alternatives now are bad, worse or worst. Worst is clearly an unplanned, chaotic exit from the euro. That may still happen. If it doesn't, then Greek voters have a month to work out which they think is bad and which worse: a planned, careful departure from the euro or remaining in on the best terms Hollande can help them squeeze out of Germany.
I am not ready to join the chorus of commentators confidently urging Greece to jump one way or the other. I simply don't know which would be better for Greece. I'm not an economist – and, by the way, the economists don't know either. I'm also not ready because I'm not Greek. Democracy means people working out what government and policies are best for them. There is no European demos, therefore no proper EU-wide democracy, so the Greeks have to work out what is good for the Greeks.
Their 6 May election was a howl of anguish at the suffering the country has been put through. It involved a majority rejection of the two main parties that have dominated the country's politics for decades and of those parties' support for the so-called "memorandum" – the agreement on austerity in return for European bailout.
The next election will be a moment of truth: in or out. Should the country gamble that after the initial shock and losses of "Grexit", its economy could grow again with the help of devaluation? Or should the new government negotiate the best deal it can get inside the eurozone, taking hope from the impact of Hollande and others? Merkel trailed her coat a little , telling CNBC: "If Greece believes that we can find more stimulus in Europe in addition to the memorandum then we have to talk about that." Yet even the best possible deal would mean a long, painful slog out of the valley of despair.
These alternatives need to be placed as honestly as possible before Greek voters. Then they have to decide. Actually, that was the extraordinary idea people came up with in Athens about 2,500 years ago. Free citizens gathered in the place of assembly. "Tis agoreuein bouletai?" cried the herald – "Who wishes to address the assembly?" Then any free man (yes, it was only men) could make the best case for his favoured policy choice, with democracy and free speech being seen as two sides of the same coin.
The future of the eurozone now depends on the choice to be made in Greece, the future of Europe on that of the eurozone, and that of the west to a significant degree on that of Europe – so, with slight hyperbole, we can say that the future of the west now depends on the birthplace of the west. Is it too much to hope that, in such a moment, Greek politics will rediscover some of the grandeur and simplicity that was present in Athens at the creation of democracy? Probably it is.
Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist.