More than two years into the American-led campaign against the Islamic State, freeing the cities of Mosul, in Iraq, and Raqqa, in Syria, is within reach. But since the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared the establishment of its caliphate from the pulpit of a mosque in Mosul in 2014, the Islamic State has claimed at least eight “provinces” in countries across the globe.
Countries in North Africa account for some of the largest portions of the nearly 40,000 foreign fighters who have flocked to join Mr. Baghdadi’s murderous cult, as well as the Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Recent worrying trends in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia should make the American government focus on countering the Islamic State’s global expansion and asking: What is the United States’ strategy for ensuring that the current progress in Iraq and Syria is not simply the opening act of a more far-reaching drama involving the Islamic State?
Egypt and Libya, in particular, could represent tipping points for the Islamic State and its global presence. In Egypt, the group appears to be employing the sectarian playbook used by its predecessor, Al Qaeda, in Iraq. An uptick in attacks against Christian minorities in Egypt, including twin bombing attacks on Coptic churches on Palm Sunday, mirror the Qaeda group’s campaign of terrorism against Shiite communities in Baghdad that was intended to intimidate locals and bolster its own recruiting.
The United States should be especially concerned about a repeat of this approach in Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, which is already on edge thanks to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s strongman tactics against journalists, political opponents and human rights groups. For the past few years, the United States’ approach has been to provide carefully calibrated security cooperation while clearly condemning Mr. Sisi’s authoritarian actions. For example, the Obama administration supported Egypt’s fight against insurgents in the strategically vital Sinai region, yet withheld certain military sales and was outspoken about America’s concerns over Egypt’s human rights record.
Arguably, this balance wasn’t perfect; perhaps it might have been more effective to couple the condemnation for Mr. Sisi’s increasing authoritarianism with even greater counterterrorism assistance. In any case, American silence about the Sisi administration’s human rights record is not the answer. After all, Al Qaeda traces its roots to Cairo’s prisons under Egypt’s earlier repressive regimes.
In that context, we must hope that both the threat from the Islamic State and the problem of the Egyptian government’s repressions were part of the conversation in the Oval Office last month when President Trump met Mr. Sisi. An encouraging sign of a more productive relationship was the diplomatic back channel that reportedly resulted in Egypt’s release of an Egyptian-American aid worker.
Across the border in Libya, the Islamic State was able to exploit the chaos that has engulfed that country in the five years since Muammar el-Qaddafi was ousted to establish one of its most dangerous branches. Thanks to American airstrikes in support of government-aligned militias, the group was dislodged from its safe haven in the coastal city of Surt last year. In the last weeks of the Obama administration, the United States military undertook strikes to keep the extremists from regrouping.
America risks backsliding, though, on this progress if Mr. Trump acts on his recent statement that the United States has no role in Libya. The country still lacks a unified government, as a mix of the Islamic State, Qaeda affiliates, independent militias and criminal networks vie for advantage. The Government of National Accord, which does have international recognition, controls only part of the country and is buffeted by warring factions on both its eastern and western flanks. The forces in the east, led by Gen. Khalifa Hifter, are receiving support from Russia, increasingly assertive in the region, as well as from some Gulf countries.
President Barack Obama acknowledged that failure to plan for the day after Colonel Qaddafi’s demise was a mistake. But his administration led international efforts to support the Government of National Accord, and studiously avoided favoring one side in Libya’s civil strife. An American tilt now in favor of the warlord General Hifter could push Libya further into becoming a failed state, which would pose a greater threat to the security interests of the United States and Europe. Far from having no role, the United States should be using its influence with European allies and Gulf partners to build up the legitimate government and strengthen the rule of law in Libya. If it does not, Libya could look like Syria by this time next year.
No country is more vulnerable to Libya’s security vacuum than neighboring Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab spring. While Tunisia has a new Constitution and a thriving civil society, it has also been the greatest contributor of foreign fighters to the Islamic State, by some estimates as many as 7,000. Tunisia may be the best hope for stable democracy to emerge in the region, but with a struggling economy and the prospect of thousands of returning jihadist fighters, it sits at a dangerous juncture of potential expansion for the Islamic State. Because of the country’s porous border with Libya, Tunisia is on the receiving end of Libya’s overflow of militants. Terrorists trained at camps in Libya conducted two of Tunisia’s worst attacks in recent years.
To keep Tunisia from sliding into Libya-like chaos, the Obama administration has since 2011 supplied more than $750 million in economic support, awarded Tunisia favored trading status to spur commerce and declared Tunisia a major non-NATO ally. The United States also consolidated security partnerships by establishing a counterterrorism hub in Tunis and by supplying border control training and surveillance assistance. Tunisia can be a backstop against the Islamic State’s expansion, preventing the group from creating a North African safe haven — but only if the Trump administration expands on all these efforts, especially by beefing up Tunisia’s border security with the aid of drones.
The Islamic State is losing in Iraq and Syria, but if the United States hopes to cement that success and deal the group a lasting defeat, we must engage now with America’s key partners in North Africa. Otherwise, the conditions will be set for a deadly resurgence of the group.
Lisa Monaco, the homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to President Barack Obama from 2013 to 2017, is a senior fellow at New York University Law School’s Center on Law and Security.