The plus side of an arms race with Iran

Iran's testing of its "Sajjil 2" missile grabbed headlines in the international media. It was described as "an upgraded version of an advanced missile capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe".

Judging by the reaction of the western press, it seems that the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become very adept at convincing them of its superior military capabilities.

And the fact that the Iranian government was able to do two tests of its Sajjil missiles in the space of seven months (the previous one being in May) is a sign that Iran is making significant advances in its missile programme. This missile also uses solid fuel, which is more advanced than liquid fuel, used by Iran's other missiles. Solid fuel can also stay in the rockets for months, while liquid fuel missiles need to be fuelled right before being launched, thus making them easier to detect and destroy.

However, what the west should not forget is that Israel was already within the range of Iranian missiles before this test. And although the solid fuel capabilities of the missile make it more difficult to detect, Israel's new Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV), which can fly over Iran for up to 36 hours, and its sophisticated spy satellites, which have greatly improved its intelligence-gathering capabilities, should not be overlooked.

Iran is estimated to have roughly 100-150 missiles that can reach Israel. Most of these are Shahab-3 missiles, which have a low accuracy rate and a payload of only 1,200kg. Israel has an Arrow anti-missile system which is conservatively expected to stop at least 50% of them, if not more. Hezbollah, which is estimated to have at least 30,000 missiles (some have put the number at double that amount), could hit as far as Tel Aviv. However, again, one should not forget the Israeli Air Force's capabilities in this case. During the last war in 2006, all of Hezbollah's long-range missiles were destroyed within a few hours. The same could happen again, as Hezbollah's missiles are more difficult to hide. They are also much more within the range of Israel.

What the west should focus on is that within Iran's perceived strength of developing new missiles lies a significant weakness. By engaging the west in an arms race, Iran could set itself up for a battle it could lose. Not only technically in terms of which missile has a longer range, but also politically.

Israel and the west both have larger economic stamina than Iran in keeping up in such a competition over a long period of time. The Iranian government, whose already damaged economy is about to take a major hit through sanctions, over time will find it more and more difficult to pour resources into expensive military plans, at the expense of important social needs and projects. However, if it does, this could have the same impact on Iran as on the former Soviet Union – economic neglect caused by mismanagement and huge defence budgets, causing the ultimate collapse of the economy and subsequently the regime.

Therefore instead of being concerned about an arms race with Iran, some western policymakers should welcome it. This could be a powerful way to gradually bleed the Iranian leadership of what keeps it alive – economic viability.

Expensive Russian MiG fighter jets or intercontinental ballistic missiles could not hold the communist regime together for long. The same could work in Iran, especially after the post-election upheavals there. The more Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ignores the economic plight of his people due to excessive focus on the military, the more unpopular his regime will become. And now that the green movement has proved its popularity by continuing with its protests for six months, the chance that public resentment could turn into viable opposition that could endanger his regime is much higher. Engaging him in an arms race could be one way to make sure he falls into this trap.

As the old saying goes, in every cloud, there is a silver lining. This includes the clouds of smoke emanating from Iranian missile launches.

Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst and co-author of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran.