Saudi Arabia is hosting bilateral talks between Russian and US officials this week to discuss prospects for a partial ceasefire in Ukraine and the safety of shipping in the Black Sea. The talks, taking place in Riyadh’s opulent Ritz-Carlton Hotel, come after the Saudis hosted a Ukrainian delegation on Sunday, and highlight the kingdom’s growing role as a host for important international negotiations.
Riyadh is hosting the talks at the request of US president Donald Trump, who has thrust the kingdom into the diplomatic limelight. Whether the current Ukraine talks succeed or fail, Arab states and their populations will now expect Saudi Arabia to play a more dynamic role in resolving regional conflicts and find a solution to the Israel-Palestine issue.
Since Trump’s second term began, he has called upon Saudi Arabia to host talks on three separate occasions, including this week’s negotiations. The kingdom first held talks on 18 February between senior US and Russian officials – the first in three years – and then hosted discussions between US and Ukrainian officials on 11 March following last month’s public disagreement in the Oval Office between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
There are several reasons Trump has chosen Saudi Arabia as the location for such important talks: his penchant for prioritizing personality over process, the kingdom’s role in securing the release of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners, and its willingness to use its ‘good offices’ to facilitate bilateral and multilateral talks.
For Trump, it’s personal
During his first presidency, Trump broke with tradition and instead of visiting Canada, he made his first foreign visit as president to Saudi Arabia. During the visit, the president signed a defence deal worth $109 billion with King Salman bin Abdulaziz. Trump’s son-in-law and then senior adviser, Jared Kushner, played a key role in securing the deal and strengthening ties with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.
After leaving office, Kushner secured a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) for his private equity firm, Affinity Partners. As such, Trump has placed a lot of store in his personal relationship with senior Saudis – despite his pronouncements on Gaza provoking Riyadh to issue a public statement implicitly rejecting his plans – and believes that they can provide an environment that is conducive to high-level bilateral talks. Moreover, he considers his relations with Saudi leaders to be transactional rather than value-based and that better serves his objectives with Russia.
Neutrality and experience
The current talks build on Riyadh’s achievement in negotiating Russia-Ukraine prisoner swaps. For example, in September 2022, Riyadh brokered the release of ten foreign nationals captured in Ukraine as part of a largest prisoner swap.
The kingdom’s official policy of ‘positive neutrality’ on the Ukraine conflict has allowed it to build invaluable close personal relations with Russian and Ukrainian officials. Riyadh’s ongoing cooperation with Russia to manage oil prices within OPEC+, while also hosting Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy at the Arab League Summit in 2023, has bolstered the kingdom’s ability to present itself as a neutral partner.
More broadly, Riyadh has also gained valuable experience in mediating other conflicts. Alongside the UAE, the kingdom played a key role in forging a peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 2018, effectively ending a two-decades-long conflict. Together, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi deployed a range of mediation tools, which included hosting direct negotiations; providing economic and security incentives, such as financial aid, investment pledges, and security cooperation; and applying diplomatic pressure to bring both parties to the negotiating table.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with the US, mediated between Sudan’s warring factions, resulting in the Jeddah Declaration – the first formal written agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Although the declaration led to only a short-lived seven-day truce, it laid a foundation for future negotiations and helped boost Riyadh’s reputation as a diplomatic player.
Oman and Qatar
Over the past two decades, GCC states have sought to pursue more independent foreign policies and, by doing so, have become increasingly active in regional diplomacy.
Qatar has emerged as a key mediator in both regional conflicts and complex international disputes. It has achieved much success, most notably in playing a central role in securing the Israel-Hamas truce, and facilitating talks between the US and the Taliban.
Oman, leveraging its long-standing policy of neutrality, has established a reputation as a discreet – but indispensable – mediator. It played a pivotal role in the secret backchannel talks between Iran and the US which laid the groundwork for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
In contrast, Saudi Arabia is still the new kid on the block. It has valuable experience and growing capacity, but it does not carry the ‘war scars’ that Oman and Qatar bear after dealing with Hamas, the Taliban and the Houthis. Muscat and Doha have had to pay a high price for maintaining links with groups that Western countries either proscribe or consider inimical to their interests, and have received widespread criticism as a result. From a Western perspective, Saudi Arabia does not carry such baggage and is therefore a more attractive location to host talks.
Riyadh’s willingness to lend its ‘good offices’ and facilitate negotiations, rather than mediate between Russia and the US and Russia and Ukraine, make it the perfect host for Trump. The US president prefers direct talks to take place between Russian and US officials, and he eventually wants a face-to-face meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The kingdom can provide this – with the attraction of it taking place in a grand palace with gracious hosts.
New role, new responsibilities
No matter the outcome of the talks, Saudi Arabia views hosting international negotiations as a major win. It now looks as though Saudi Arabia will overshadow its neighbours and play a leading role in international mediation, peace and security.
Its role as a facilitator in Ukraine ceasefire talks may well boost its chances of gaining a seat at the table should Iran-US talks resume, something unimaginable a few years ago. At the very least, it will strengthen Riyadh’s position and ensure that the US remains cognisant of its security concerns. Furthermore, hosting the talks also deflects pressure from the Trump administration on sensitive regional issues, such as Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
However, Riyadh’s new role brings with it new weight, responsibility and accountability. There will be an increased expectation not only from the international community, but also Arab populations for Saudi Arabia to become proactively engaged in resolving regional conflicts and getting involved in enforcement, implementation and follow up.
While the kingdom has therefore happily embraced its newfound diplomatic prestige, sustaining this role will require grit, determination, and a willingness to take risks and receive criticism – with the world watching its every move.
Dr Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme.