This weekend’s NATO airstrike on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border was a tragedy. I know how much this has upset the Pakistani people, and I feel deeply for the loss of life and offer my heartfelt condolences. There will be a thorough investigation, which should allow both countries to remain focused on the bedrock national interests we share. This incident underscores just how badly we all need to work together to end the war and bring stability and security to the region.
The road to peace was never going to be easy. The past year has been especially trying for the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Despite our many frustrations and setbacks, both sides must remember what is at stake here and that we have more to gain by finding common ground. We have to take a collective deep breath.
Next week in Bonn, Germany, we have another chance to try to move forward. The Bonn conference, at which leaders from NATO, Afghanistan and its neighboring countries are to discuss the future of Afghanistan after U.S. troops withdraw, will not be a panacea for the region’s problems, but it is an opportunity for all parties with a vested interest in Afghanistan’s future to engage.
We should all seize this moment — including Pakistan, whose role is key in making any kind of peace last. If Pakistan does not attend Bonn, it will send a dangerous message that it is not serious about working with Afghanistan and the international community to promote stability.
Regardless of whether or not Pakistan participates, Bonn is still an opportunity for the United States to make clear that we are not abandoning Afghanistan. We have significant long-term strategic interests in the region that will be imperiled if we do not engineer a responsible transition.
Our message in Bonn must be that in 2014, when the majority of our troops will leave the country, we will begin a new phase in our relationship with Afghanistan. We must make clear that our military will continue to work with the Afghan National Security Forces to prevent the return of terrorist safe havens. Much as we are doing in Iraq, we will remain vigorously engaged politically and economically on security, governance, and economic and social development.
We face a strategic challenge today because too many in the region doubt our staying power and fear we will turn our backs on Afghanistan and its people. That’s why we need to make our intentions clear.
Afghanistan’s neighbors anticipate a security vacuum that hostile actors are only too eager to exploit. Some are cutting their own deals and strengthening ties with different Afghan factions, laying the groundwork for continuing conflict and instability. Improving regional cooperation hinges on convincing the region that our core interests align. The United States is not pursuing its security goals at the expense of destabilizing the neighborhood.
In addition to the need for cooperation with Pakistan, other neighbors warrant attention, too. Russia, for example, is looking to reassert its authority in the region and could use our departure as a pretext to redeploy Russian troops on the Tajik-Afghan border. The Chinese are expanding their economic footprint but have chosen not to engage politically or militarily, in part because they’re fearful of stirring separatist sentiments in the volatile Xinjiang region bordering Afghanistan. Iran, too, has strengthened economic and trade cooperation with Kabul, building on its cultural ties to reassert its role in the region. And the Indians recently signed a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan, cementing their long-term ties.
Meanwhile, smaller neighbors have gone into a defensive crouch. Uzbekistan is concerned by drug smuggling and militant groups crossing from Afghanistan, which it assumes will only get worse as coalition forces depart. And Tajikistan, the weakest link in greater Central Asia which has the most porous border with Afghanistan, strongly opposes a Taliban takeover but has limited means to defend itself from any security threat.
What links all of the neighbors is their growing fear that the West will “lose Afghanistan.” The region is hedging its bets, which has empowered the Taliban and its allies who are trying to project an inevitability of their return.
Afghans are looking for a comprehensive political transition strategy for 2014. It is not enough only to engage armed actors like the Quetta Shura Taliban and Haqqanis, which is what many believe is currently happening. Afghanistan’s ethnic groups and women must feel included, too. If not, they will cut their own deals with various power brokers to best defend their interests. This will lead to greater political hemorrhaging and a possible civil war.
While Afghans must decide their future, the United States’ role can be pivotal, providing security guarantees, investing in economic development, and supporting an emerging political class of Afghans who work hard to earn public legitimacy and consent to govern. We need to build the foundation for a comprehensive peace process, which after all should be the dividend of our military sacrifice in the region these past ten years.
Bonn is our opportunity to make clear that the United States’ role is changing, not evaporating. A responsible drawdown and transition is both in the region’s interests and ours to avoid another war there or closer to home. The stakes are enormous: done right, our military drawdown will motivate Afghans and their neighbors to negotiate seriously with each other about their future; done wrong, it could precipitate another war.
By John Kerry, a United States Senator from Massachusetts and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.