By Peter Bergen, a senior fellow of the New America Foundation, is the author of âThe Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of Al Qaedaâs Leaderâ (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26/10/06):
THE French saying, often attributed to Talleyrand, that âthis is worse than a crime, itâs a blunder,â could easily describe Americaâs invasion of Iraq. But for the United States to pull entirely out of that country right now, as is being demanded by a growing chorus of critics, would be to snatch an unqualified disaster from the jaws of an enormous blunder.
To understand why, look to history. Vietnam often looms large in the debate over Iraq, but the better analogy is what happened in Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion. During the 1980âs, Washington poured billions of dollars into the Afghan resistance. Around the time of Moscowâs withdrawal in 1989, however, the United States shut its embassy in Kabul and largely ignored the ensuing civil war and the rise of the Taliban and its Qaeda allies. We canât make the same mistake again in Iraq.
A total withdrawal from Iraq would play into the hands of the jihadist terrorists. As Osama bin Ladenâs deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, made clear shortly after 9/11 in his book âKnights Under the Prophetâs Banner,â Al Qaedaâs most important short-term strategic goal is to seize control of a state, or part of a state, somewhere in the Muslim world. âConfronting the enemies of Islam and launching jihad against them require a Muslim authority, established on a Muslim land,â he wrote. âWithout achieving this goal our actions will mean nothing.â Such a jihadist state would be the ideal launching pad for future attacks on the West.
And there is no riper spot than the Sunni-majority areas of central and western Iraq. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi â the most feared insurgent commander in Iraq â was issuing an invitation to Mr. bin Laden when he named his group Al Qaeda in Iraq. When Mr. Zarqawi was killed this year, his successor, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, also swore allegiance to Al Qaedaâs chief.
Another problem with a total American withdrawal is that it would fit all too neatly into Osama bin Ladenâs master narrative about American foreign policy. His theme is that America is a paper tiger that cannot tolerate body bags coming home; to back it up, he cites President Ronald Reaganâs 1984 withdrawal of United States troops from Lebanon and President Bill Clintonâs decision nearly a decade later to pull troops from Somalia. A unilateral pullout from Iraq would only confirm this analysis of American weakness among his jihadist allies.
Indeed, in 2005 Mr. Zawahri sent Mr. Zarqawi a letter, which was intercepted by the United States military, exhorting him to start preparing for the impending American withdrawal similar to that of Vietnam 30 years ago. âThe aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam â and how they ran and left their agents â is noteworthy,â Mr. Zawahri said. âBecause of that, we must be ready starting now, before events overtake us, and before we are surprised by the conspiracies of the Americans and the United Nations and their plans to fill the void behind them.â
Yes, there is little doubt that the botched American occupation of Iraq was the critical factor that fueled the Iraqi insurgency. But for the United States to wash its hands of the country now would give Al Qaedaâs leaders what they want.
This does not mean simply holding course. America should abandon its pretensions that it can make Iraq a functioning democracy and halt the civil war. Instead, we should focus on a minimalist definition of our interests in Iraq, which is to prevent a militant Sunni jihadist mini-state from emerging and allowing Al Qaeda to regroup.
While withdrawing a substantial number of American troops from Iraq would probably tamp down the insurgency and should be done as soon as is possible, a significant force must remain in Iraq for many years to destroy Al Qaeda in Iraq.
That can be accomplished by making the American presence less visible; withdrawing American troops to bases in central and western Iraq; and relying on contingents of Special Forces to hunt militants. To do otherwise would be to ignore the lessons of history, lessons that Al Qaedaâs leaders certainly havenât forgotten.