Germany is ready for change. But the politicians are playing it safe

From left, chancellor candidates Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union before a debate in Berlin on Sept. 12. (Michael Kappeler/Pool/Reuters)
From left, chancellor candidates Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union before a debate in Berlin on Sept. 12. (Michael Kappeler/Pool/Reuters)

One of the biggest strengths of democracies is their capacity to provide for peaceful transitions of power. In Germany, where the 67-year-old Angela Merkel has reigned for 16 years, voters are about to decide who will come next.

Could the Sept. 26 general election be a chance for Germans to send a signal about long-overdue generational change? Merkel’s retirement from politics would seem to have taken the option of continuity off the ballot. Yet the fact that she is still by far Germany’s most popular politician is actually leading her would-be successors to emphasize business as usual rather than disruption. Merkel’s departure should have opened up a real opportunity for a new generation to come forward. Instead, the major parties are choosing to play it safe.

Armin Laschet, the leader of the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has unabashedly attempted to sell himself as a Merkel in trousers. Only seven years younger than the chancellor, he mirrors her centrist approach. His manifesto carries the title “Stability and Renewal,” and there is nothing in it that suggests fast-paced change.

In some ways, Laschet’s campaign has a decidedly 20th-century feel to it, leaning on the anti-communist rhetoric of old. Vowing to “prevent the slide to the left,” it urges voters to avoid a potential left-wing coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) with the socialist party, Die Linke. Laschet seems to have overlooked the point that communism is no longer a worldwide threat whose long arm reaches into Berlin itself. Die Linke is polling at 6 percent. Laschet’s Cold War-style campaign appears to have missed the mark, leaving his CDU poised for its worst-ever result. Currently, only about 1 in 5 Germans would vote for the party that has dominated postwar German politics like no other.

Notably, SPD candidate Olaf Scholz is also playing the Merkel 2.0 card. This is not as far-fetched as it seems. In Germany, the voting system almost always leads to coalition governments, and Scholz’s SPD has been running the country together with Merkel’s party since 2013. Scholz himself has served as vice chancellor for the past three years. He has reinforced the continuity platform this position affords him by running a fairly low-key but steady campaign without the drama and scandal his rival has incurred.

Laschet botched a real chance to prove his Merkellian credentials during the major flooding crisis that occurred in July in his own backyard, the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, which he leads. The deadly catastrophe, which killed more than 180 people in Germany, caused the desperate survivors to look to politicians for help and reassurance. But Laschet committed a serious blunder. While the German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier delivered a moving and somber speech, Laschet was seen to be laughing like a naughty schoolboy behind him — a far cry from Merkel’s sober style.

By contrast, Scholz appeared on the scene as Merkel’s vice chancellor, standing in for her while she was in the United States on her last visit to the White House. He appeared calm and understanding — just as she would have done. Since then, he has gone even further to look like the chancellor he wants to replace. The cover of the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper recently featured a whole-page photograph of him holding his fingertips together upside down to form a shape familiar to all Germans: the iconic Merkel rhombus. Scholz’s strategy to suggest the safety of continuity appears to be working. His SPD has shot ahead in all the polls from only 17 percent in June to 25 percent now.

However, it is also a startling fact that only 12 percent of Germans feel that Scholz’s party could best cope with the problems their country is facing. Nearly 40 percent would return to Merkel’s party if it was led by Markus Söder, the 54-year-old premier of Bavaria, who has a reputation for brash decisiveness and has proposed a range of concrete ideas for political, economic and social change.

Put in context, Scholz’s relative popularity does not so much point to a German desire for safety in continuity but to frustration with the lack of credible candidates for change. It is not the electorate that is fearful of transition but politicians. Germany is missing a chance to take its democracy into the 21st century.

Katja Hoyer, an Anglo-German historian and journalist, is the author of “Blood and Iron: The Rise and Fall of the German Empire 1871-1918.”

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