Procesos electorales

Trump, a lomos del elefante

Las primarias y caucus que están teniendo lugar estos meses para elegir al candidato del Partido Republicano demuestran con toda claridad que, después de mantener con su establishment una relación difícil y controvertida a lo largo de casi un decenio, Donald Trump se ha apropiado del partido del elefante. En estos meses previos a las elecciones presidenciales de 2024 estamos viviendo, finalmente, el advenimiento de la tan esperada y profética refundación conservadora, pero en un sentido bien diferente de lo deseado en todo este tiempo por las figuras políticas y electorales destacadas del viejo gran partido de Abraham Lincoln.

Sin embargo, este renacimiento ultraconservador no viene, como era de esperar, de los sectores más nativistas próximos al Tea Party; ni de los libertarios conservadores; tampoco de la derecha cristiana -desde los cristianos evangélicos hasta los Santos de los Últimos Días, pasando por baptistas y presbiterianos-; ni mucho menos de los neorrepublicanos o idealistas conservadores próximos a los presupuestos de la ex gobernadora y ex embajadora Nikki Haley.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of former prime minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) stage a protest against the results of the 8 February elections, in Islamabad, Pakistan on 17 February 2024. Photo by Muhammed Semih Ugurlu/Anadolu via Getty Images.

After days of intense political bargaining following one of the most contested elections in Pakistan’s history, agreement was reached this week on a five-party minority coalition government led by former interim prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif, of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

The protracted negotiations between the centre-right PML-N and the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were complicated by a split mandate that failed – against all expectations – to produce a clear winning majority for the PML-N. Its credibility, and by extension the standing of the coalition, has been strongly challenged by former prime minister Imran Khan, leader of the Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), which denounced the coalition as ‘mandate thieves’.…  Seguir leyendo »

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto addresses supporters at an event on February 14, 2024 in Jakarta, Indonesia - watched by Gibran Rakabuming Raka (Photo by Oscar Siagian/Getty Images)

When I had lunch with Prabowo Subianto in 2013, a year before his first, failed attempt to be elected president of Indonesia, he was still honing his fiery nationalist pitch, promising to shake up the country and prevent it becoming a failed state.

Eleven years later, the 72-year-old former general finally seems to have secured the presidency by reinventing himself as a continuity candidate, forming an unlikely alliance with the incredibly popular outgoing President Joko Widodo.

Unofficial ‘quick counts’ by respected pollsters, which are typically accurate, indicate that Prabowo won nearly 60 per cent of the vote in Indonesia’s presidential election on February 14.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa debe prepararse para el regreso de Trump

Durante el fin de semana, el expresidente estadounidense hizo que muchas cancillerías europeas estuvieran al borde del pánico al alentar a Rusia a atacar a los aliados de la OTAN que no gastan el 2% del PIB en defensa. En esta categoría se encuentran Alemania, Bélgica, España, entre muchos otros Estados europeos. Sería prudente tomar en serio la advertencia.

Donald Trump está muy cerca de obtener la nominación republicana, después de aplastar a sus dos principales rivales dentro del partido en las primarias de Iowa y New Hampshire. Por supuesto, todavía podemos esperar a ver qué pasa con los numerosos casos judiciales abiertos e incluso conceder a Joe Biden, de 81 años, el beneficio de la duda.…  Seguir leyendo »

La ira de la clase media paquistaní contra el régimen militar

Las elecciones generales paquistaníes del 8 de febrero, arruinadas por acusaciones de irregularidades generalizadas, tuvieron como resultado la paralización parlamentaria y la formación de un gobierno de coalición por los dos principales partidos dinásticos del país. De todas formas, el resultado representa una aplastante derrota para los poderosos militares del país, ya que los candidatos respaldados por el Movimiento por la Justicia de Pakistán (Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI) —partido político del ex primer ministro Imran Khan, ahora en prisión— consiguieron más escaños en el parlamento que cualquier otro bloque político, a pesar de la campaña en contra de sus votantes y partidarios que lleva ya dos años.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) protest outside a temporary election commission office in Peshawar on February 10, 2024. (Photo by ABDUL MAJEED/AFP via Getty Images)

The dust has yet to settle on Pakistan’s election. The official results show that independent candidates aligned to the PTI – the party of Imran Khan – have performed better than anticipated despite Khan’s arrest and conviction. This belies the initial belief that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) – the party of the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shehbaz) – would lead the next government.

The PTI and PML-N both claim victory, but neither has yet secured the requisite numbers to form a government on its own. This increases the probability that a messy coalition government is formed after an extended period of horse-trading.…  Seguir leyendo »

Some parts of most people’s brains that are involved in higher cognitive thinking are subject to an ageing process starting from 60-70 years of age and continuing until death. In particular, there is a shrinkage of the brain’s frontal lobe and, deeper in, of an area called the hippocampus. The brain’s surface areas can also thin and nerve fibres shrink, which slows the way the brain processes information. Among the chemical changes that researchers think occur during brain ageing are a decrease of neurotransmitters, particularly dopamine, serotonin and acetylcholine, in parts of the brain.

I was a neurologist, a doctor of medicine who specialises in the brain, and a research fellow at St Thomas’s hospital, across the Thames from Britain’s House of Commons, before I became a Labour MP in 1966.…  Seguir leyendo »

El líder de Coalición Cívica, Donald Tusk, en un encuentro con los habitantes de Koszalin (Polonia) en julio de 2023. Foto: Stanisław Krupiński, (Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0)

Tema

Las elecciones parlamentarias polacas de 2023 han propiciado un importante vuelco en el paisaje político de la UE. El presente análisis explora los profundos impactos que han tenido las elecciones en Polonia, la UE y los asuntos internacionales.

Resumen

Con las elecciones en Polonia, el país regresa al paisaje político tradicional europeo. La vuelta de Polonia bajo la batuta de Donald Tusk, un líder fuerte e internacionalmente aclamado, debería conducir al restablecimiento de un Triángulo de Weimar reforzado como eje político de la UE. Si las reuniones del Triángulo cuentan con la asistencia de la presidenta von der Leyen, esto podría generar un motor similar al histórico triunvirato integrado por Delors-Kohl-Mitterand a finales de los 80 en un contexto de grandes cambios geopolíticos, incluidas futuras ampliaciones y una transición ecológica.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nikki Haley debería permanecer en la carrera del Partido Republicano

Gracias al cielo por Nikki Haley. La exgobernadora de Carolina del Sur y embajadora de Estados Unidos ante las Naciones Unidas ha resistido la presión para retirarse de la primaria presidencial republicana de 2024, una decisión que convertiría al expresidente Donald Trump en el candidato del partido.

Dado el daño que la agenda de Trump provocaría si ganara un segundo mandato en noviembre, Haley debería seguir dando pelea hasta la Convención Nacional Republicana en julio. Trump está considerando crear un “anillo” alrededor de la economía estadounidense imponiendo un arancel del 10% sobre todas la importaciones y rebajando el estatus comercial de China, lo que aumentaría sustancialmente los aranceles.…  Seguir leyendo »

What do ‘Latino voters’ want? The GOP seems to know

Is there such a thing as “the Latino voter”?

My father, a Peruvian, was something of a Republican, even when he wasn’t yet a citizen of the United States. For the first 15 years of my parents’ marriage, in Peru, he was mostly concerned with the careening allegiances of his own countrymen: the gaping divide between the elites and the poor; the wild, destabilizing vacillation between right wing and left wing in Latin America; the perpetual pendulum swing between oppression and revolution.

When my parents immigrated to the United States in the 1960s, looking for better opportunities for their children, they arrived as a sea change was afoot.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Candidates loyal to Imran Khan stunned outside observers – and even Pakistan’s political elite – by winning the most seats in last week’s election.’ Photograph: Abdul Majeed/AFP/Getty Images

Since the founding of Pakistan in 1947, not a single prime minister has served the full five-year term. If this fact betokens a country marked by instability and sudden changes in the political mood then last week’s remarkable elections have done little to change that reputation. The electoral analysts were proved wrong, as candidates loyal to the imprisoned former prime minister, Imran Khan, stunned outside observers – and even the country’s political elite – by winning the most seats. One thing can now be predicted with confidence: a new period of political turmoil.

Nearly 60 million people turned out to vote on 8 February.…  Seguir leyendo »

A street vendor in Jakarta, January 2024. Willy Kurniawan / Reuters

This week, Indonesia heads to the polls to elect a new president. Any exercise of democracy in this sprawling, diverse archipelago nation—the world’s fourth most populous country—is nearly continental in scale. Several candidates are vying to replace the popular president, Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, who has ruled the country for the last decade but must now step down owing to term limits. The campaign has seen three main rival coalitions spar over the place of dynasties in Indonesian politics (Jokowi’s son is the running mate of Prabowo Subianto, the leading presidential contender, who had lost twice to Jokowi but now has the president’s full backing) and over other issues of importance to the public, including the appropriate role for government in driving economic growth and questions about foreign investment.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Joe Biden addressing the press in response to the Special Counsel’s report on his handling of classified documents, Washington, D.C., February 8, 2024. Nathan Howard/Getty Images

An empty bucket, a Zappos shoebox, potting soil, a collapsed dog crate, a dog bed, a broken lamp wrapped in duct tape, some synthetic firewood—the flotsam and jetsam of the half-forgotten years. These leftovers from past lives accumulate in suburban garages as the people who once wanted them get older and older. Useless and unnoticed, they yet cling on doggedly until time does its work, their owners depart for good, and new people move in and take them to the dump.

But this particular jumble of detritus has been rescued from oblivion and given a new home in the eternal archives of US history.…  Seguir leyendo »

Sukarno, the first president of Indonesia, saw independence as a “golden bridge” to becoming an advanced economy and a prosperous society. It is a national ideal to fulfil those goals by 2045, when the country will celebrate the centennial anniversary of independence. However, the journey has not been easy and will continue to be studded with enormous challenges.

The most evident challenge is the climate crisis. It poses a serious threat to the global economy, affects geopolitics, undermines maritime communities and threatens the livelihood of indigenous peoples. At the same time, the world is trying to grapple with the rise of artificial intelligence.…  Seguir leyendo »

Implicaciones del gran año electoral

Se está hablando mucho de que 2024 será un superaño electoral. El seminario The Economist fue uno de los primeros en destacar que este será un año decisivo para la democracia en todo el mundo, con elecciones en más de 70 países. Según algunos cálculos, será la primera vez que la mitad de la población mundial -más de 4.000 millones de personas- acudirá a votar en comicios presidenciales, legislativos o subnacionales.

Aunque algunos analistas discrepan de la cifra exacta, lo cierto es que estamos ante un ciclo electoral sin precedentes. Tendremos desde contiendas de un día hasta de varias semanas; desde procesos transparentes y disputados hasta otros sin garantías mínimas de libertad y competencia; veremos votaciones trascendentales que atraerán los ojos del mundo entero frente a otras marginales e ignoradas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Boris Nadezhdin, who is seeking to run against Vladimir Putin in Russia's presidential election in March, speaks with members of the media on Jan. 31. (Maxim Shipenkov/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Western observers are increasingly pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances for driving out the Russian invaders, with some even suggesting that Vladimir Putin might use his country’s military might to attack NATO countries on its borders. But one key factor is ignored by the doomsayers: Support for Putin’s war among Russians — crucial to the country’s success in defeating Ukraine — is faltering significantly.

Not only do some polls suggest that a majority of Russians want the Kremlin to end the Ukraine conflict, but a vocal, grass-roots opposition to the war is also taking shape — and is throwing a monkey wrench into Putin’s plans to use his reelection as an affirmation of national backing for his military agenda.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pakistanis Like Me Are Losing Faith in Democracy

This is a critical week for Pakistanis. On Thursday we will vote in federal and provincial elections, with the future of our democracy in question. We are not the only country facing such a moment this year. National elections will be held in more than 60 countries, which account for nearly half the global population.

But I suspect that millions of voters around the world are, like me, wondering whether they even believe in the promise of democracy anymore. Pakistan has never been able to get it right; next door in India, the world’s biggest democracy, elections a couple of months from now are likely to extend the grip of Narendra Modi’s Hindu-supremacist government, and Donald Trump is on the upswing again in America, which votes in November.…  Seguir leyendo »

Uno sabe que está en apuros cuando su seguridad depende de que alguien no salga elegido. En 2016, la elección de Donald Trump supuso una sorpresa total para los europeos. Afortunadamente, Trump era entonces demasiado caótico como para causar daños irreversibles. Cuatro años después, los europeos volvieron a apostar por que Trump no saldría reelegido, y esta vez acertaron, pero por los pelos. Ahora mismo no apuestan, pero tampoco se preparan.

Si Trump sale elegido, tendrá un equipo mucho más centrado. Esta vez no faltan operativos políticos trumpistas. Su amenaza más creíble, desde una perspectiva europea, es poner fin al apoyo financiero y militar a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palacio Presidencial de Taipéi, sede del gobierno de la República de China (Taiwán). Foto: SU TSUI LING / Getty Images

Tema

Se analizan los resultados de las elecciones generales taiwanesas y sus implicaciones internacionales, planteando posibles escenarios de evolución en el estrecho de Taiwán a corto y medio plazo.

Resumen

El escenario base para el estrecho de Taiwán tras las elecciones taiwanesas será continuista sin grandes iniciativas para modificar el statu quo desde Pekín, Taipéi o Washington. El desgaste del Partido Progresista Democrático (PPD), que ha perdido apoyos en las últimas elecciones y perdido el control del parlamento, dificulta una política aventurista por parte del nuevo gobierno. Por su parte, tanto Biden como Xi han apostado en los últimos meses por reducir las tensiones bilaterales para centrarse en asuntos domésticos en un 2024 que estará marcado por las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses y los esfuerzos de las autoridades chinas por reactivar su economía.…  Seguir leyendo »

An old woman passes by an electoral billboard in the centre of Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo by Aziz Karimov/Getty Images)

On 7 February Azerbaijan will go to the polls in a snap presidential election called by President Ilham Aliyev in December.

President since 2003, Aliyev is seeking re-election for a fifth term of seven years (the length of presidential terms introduced by referendum in 2016) to 2031, when he will turn 70. A previous referendum in 2009 abolished the limit to the number of terms a president can serve.

The election campaign has yielded no surprises in a political system which scholars have defined as a hegemonic variant of authoritarianism. The campaign has featured a performative pluralism, in which multiple candidates – generally figures not well known to the public – participate, but are united in their praise of the incumbent, who does not himself campaign.…  Seguir leyendo »