Procesos electorales

Poll workers during parliamentary elections in Tehran on Friday.Credit...Wana/Reuters

On Friday Iran held its 11th parliamentary elections since the foundation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, and the first since the Trump administration renewed sanctions on Iran and battered its economy.

The voting turnout — 42.5 percent — was the lowest since 1979, and a loose alliance of conservative candidates won. In Tehran, the capital, where about 75 percent of the voters chose not to vote, all 30 seats were won by the conservative candidates loyal to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Iranian electorate faces a perpetual dilemma on whether to participate or boycott the elections as the choice of candidates is limited and the Guardian Council — a constitutional committee made up of six clerics and six jurists that vets the electoral candidates — bars those seen as critical of the regime or deviating from its positions.…  Seguir leyendo »

2020 Democratic presidential candidates at the debate in Las Vegas on 19 February. Photo: Getty Images.

The Democratic Party’s struggle for its future policy direction is evident this election season. The primary results in Iowa and New Hampshire, narrow first- and second-place finishes for Senator Bernie Sanders (a progressive) and former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg (a moderate), were just two indicators. During Wednesday night’s debate in Las Vegas, the split became even more obvious.

The six candidates onstage clashed on ideology (socialism and capitalism, progressivism and centrism) as well as policy (healthcare, climate change, fossil fuels, criminal justice, China). Buttigieg made plain the stakes for Democrats, saying, ‘We’ve got to wake up as a party.’

If a Democratic candidate is elected to be the United States’ 46th president on 3 November, it will be despite this unresolved intra-party struggle.…  Seguir leyendo »

El candidato presidencial democráta, Bernie Sanders, participa en el evento March to the Polls, el 15 de febrero de 2020 en Las Vegas Nevada. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Puede que el senador Bernie Sanders (independiente por Vermont) sea el candidato demócrata favorito para la próxima elección en Estados Unidos, pero su margen de victoria en New Hampshire debería haberle dado de qué pensar. En la elección de hace cuatro años, Sanders ganó decisivamente en New Hampshire, superando a la futura candidata Hillary Clinton por casi 60,000 votos. Esta vez no. Hubo otras tendencias preocupantes para Sanders: la mayoría de los votantes primarios de New Hampshire eligieron a uno de los rivales centristas de Sanders. La nominación demócrata podría estar a su alcance, pero la legendaria coalición de Sanders aún no se ha materializado por completo.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Iranian woman walks past election posters in Tehran on Thursday. (Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Friday, the Islamic Republic of Iran is holding parliamentary elections. Expect Iranians to use the moment to send a powerful message to their government.

Spoiler alert: It won’t be a vote of confidence.

The elections are taking place at a time of extraordinary volatility. Last year, a wave of massive street protests ended with the deaths of hundreds of Iranians. Authorities predictably blamed the unrest on foreign agitators.

Then, in early January, came the targeted killing of Iran’s most influential military commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad.

Days later, as the regime allowed civilian aircraft to fly during a retaliatory raid on U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Solía ser una regla sobreentendida de la política estadounidense que un socialista nunca podía calificar para el máximo cargo nacional. Pero ahora un autoproclamado “socialista democrático”, el senador estadounidense Bernie Sanders, es el principal candidato para la nominación presidencial demócrata. ¿Estados Unidos debería abrazar el cambio?

Para los demócratas, las primarias significan mucho más que el presidente norteamericano, Donald Trump. El impulso de Sanders refleja un anhelo de soluciones radicales a problemas económicos estructurales graves. En las décadas posteriores a la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la economía estadounidense se volvió marcadamente más productiva, y los salarios de todos los trabajadores –más allá de la educación- crecieron por encima del 2% anual, en promedio.…  Seguir leyendo »

Las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses de noviembre serán las más trascendentales en la historia moderna. El acceso al poder del crecientemente autoritario, vengativo y peligroso Donald Trump por otros cuatro años podría determinar el futuro de EE. UU. por mucho tiempo.

Las elecciones de este año no serán la típica contienda entre dos partidos con diferencias que son más de grado que de fondo. Pero antes los demócratas deben elegir su candidato… y esta vez la competencia es excepcionalmente incierta.

El tercer intento del exvicepresidente Joe Biden para llegar al máximo cargo del país no está logrando mejores resultados que los dos primeros.…  Seguir leyendo »

Existen un profundo reto y una enorme responsabilidad para los gobiernos de América Latina ante la campaña presidencial en Estados Unidos. No se trata de las profundas diferencias de visión sobre las relaciones interamericanas entre el presidente Donald Trump, candidato republicano, y quien representará al partido Demócrata. Es más fundamental que eso, pero también más complejo de navegar. ¿Cómo preservar los balances partidistas en Estados Unidos en tiempos de Trump?

Normalmente, este balance ha sido fácil de mantener aún en contextos electorales. Lo sé porque, de alguna forma, lo he vivido de primera mano durante al menos las últimas cuatro campañas presidenciales.…  Seguir leyendo »

Muslim women protested against India’s new citizenship law in Mumbai last week.Credit...Satyabrata Tripathy/Hindustan Times, via Getty Images

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party suffered a major defeat in elections for the Delhi state legislature. Amit Shah, the prime minister’s confidante and the country’s home minister, led a highly divisive and sectarian campaign foregrounding Hindu nationalism and demonizing the city’s Muslims, and tried to paint the opposition Aam Aadmi Party and its leaders as treasonous.

Yet out of Delhi’s 70 seats, Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah’s B.J.P. won a mere eight seats, and the A.A.P., led by Arvind Kejriwal, who has been the chief minister of Delhi since 2015, won 62.

Mr. Kejriwal, an anti-graft activist turned politician, focused the electoral campaign of his party on his record of governance — the significant improvement he made to the delivery of services in public hospitals, the quality of education and infrastructure in schools, and the cost of electricity in Delhi.…  Seguir leyendo »

On Saturday, the Republic of Ireland held a general election. Sinn Fein won more votes than any other party, with 24.5 percent of the “first preference” vote, although another party, Fianna Fail, won one more seat. This is an enormous change in Irish politics.

While the Republic of Ireland is separate from Northern Ireland, many people outside of Ireland and the United Kingdom know Sinn Fein primarily as the party historically connected to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), a terrorist organization that put down its weapons as part of the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. However, it is the only significant party that is organized in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (which is unsurprising, since its main political ambition is to reunify Ireland).…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen celebrates her victory with supporters in Taipei. (Chiang Ying-Ying/AP)

Taiwan’s first female president, Tsai Ing-wen, won a second presidential term last month with a 57 percent vote share and a record of 8.2 million votes. During her campaign, Tsai and her ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocated for the need to protect Taiwan’s democracy and freedom from China’s threats — with reminders that Taiwan’s fate could one day be like Hong Kong’s.

Tsai’s landslide victory sent a signal to China and the world that the Taiwanese were determined to protect their democracy when it was threatened, especially after seeing Hong Kong’s year of unrest. But this commanding victory also has important implications for gender equality in Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

A young child holds posters of Cameroonian President Paul Biya on a wall in Yaoundé on November 6, 2018. AFP/STR

How are Cameroon’s elections likely to unfold?

In November 2019, President Paul Biya called elections for Cameroon’s National Assembly and local councils, to be held on 9 February. The elections should have been held in 2018, when these bodies’ five-year terms came to a close, but the government has put them off twice. In 2018, the government argued that it was logistically impossible to hold them at the same time as the presidential polls that year, and in 2019 it cited a tense political and security atmosphere, including in Anglophone areas, as justification for further delay. Now Biya is moving ahead with the vote, however, perhaps in order to keep up appearances after the national dialogue held in September and October 2019 (discussed below) failed to bring an end to the Cameroonian government’s conflict with Anglophone separatists.…  Seguir leyendo »

Azerbaijanis vote Sunday in a snap election that resulted from a sudden political housecleaning last fall. In October, President Ilham Aliyev dismissed his chief of staff, Ramiz Mehdiyev, and replaced a set of top officials linked to Mehdiyev’s “old guard” with younger technocrats. Azerbaijan’s National Assembly then agreed to dissolve the legislature and hold new elections on Feb. 9.

This was big news in an authoritarian regime where a single leader and his circle of close associates have structured the country’s politics for the past 16 years. Here’s what you need to know.

1. This could be a power play

Some analysts see the political shake-up as the sign of the demise of Azerbaijan’s old guard — and a consolidation of power within the family of first lady and First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva (nee Pashayeva).…  Seguir leyendo »

Reinstated Malawi Vice President Saulos Klaus Chilima, right, greets lawyers on Feb. 3 in Lilongwe. (Amos Gumulira/Afp Via Getty Images)

On Monday, Malawi’s High Court nullified the country’s May presidential elections. The 500-page ruling includes a laundry list of election irregularities — and faults the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) for failing to carry out its responsibilities according to the constitution and electoral law. The court ruled that President Peter Mutharika was “not duly elected” and called for fresh elections within 150 days.

The High Court’s panel of five judges further ruled that the simple plurality standard that has determined the winner of each presidential election since the return to multiparty competition in 1994 has gone against the “majority” principle in Malawi’s constitution.…  Seguir leyendo »

La semana pasada, en una cena en Davos, Suiza, me preguntaron si pensaba que Facebook se comportaba de manera más responsable hoy que durante las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016.

“En absoluto”, respondí. “Facebook ayudó a Trump a ser electo y me temo que lo volverá a hacer en 2020”. Les expliqué que desde hace muchos años existe una ley —el artículo 230 de la Ley de decencia en las comunicaciones— que protege a las plataformas de redes sociales de toda responsabilidad jurídica por difamación y denuncias similares. Facebook puede publicar de manera deliberada declaraciones engañosas o falsas de candidatos a cargos públicos y de otro tipo, sin asumir responsabilidad alguna por ello.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Irish political system may be about to undergo a major upheaval. Sinn Fein, a party that has traditionally been associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), has been doing increasingly well in the polls. Now, a new Irish Times poll finds that it is leading, with 25 percent of likely voters saying that they intend to vote for Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail is in second place with 23 percent, while Fine Gael, which is in government with the support of some independents (and the outside support of Fianna Fail, its historical rival) is third at 20 percent. This poll is likely to shock the Irish political system.…  Seguir leyendo »

Si usted es de Iowa, tiene el privilegio de reunirse con todos los candidatos a las elecciones presidenciales que desee, y además su voto es más poderoso que cualquier otro en las primarias de Estados Unidos. ¿Por qué? Porque desde 1972 su estado fue el primero en celebrar las primarias, lo que otorga a sus ciudadanos un papel decisivo en el desarrollo de las nominaciones de cada partido.

No hay ninguna razón para que esta situación se mantenga, pero la tradición persiste y voy a explicar por qué esta costumbre es perjudicial para la democracia estadounidense.

Para empezar, echemos un vistazo a los orígenes del por qué Iowa va primero.…  Seguir leyendo »

Simpatizantes de los candidatos al congreso del Frente Popular Agrícola del Perú se reunieron durante un mitin de cierre de campaña en Lima, Perú, el 26 de enero de 2020. (Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo)

El resultado de las elecciones extraordinarias del Congreso peruano ha arrojado un resultado inesperado: la reaparición del Frente Popular Agricola Fia del Perú (Frepap), una organización político-religiosa que mezcla motivos bíblicos e incaicos, y que estuvo fuera del radar de los medios de comunicación por dos décadas. EL partido obtuvo 16 de 130 parlamentarios, con lo que se convertirá en la cuarta fuerza política de un Parlamento fragmentado.

Sus candidatos no figuraban en los primeros lugares de las encuestas. Mucho menos fueron entrevistados en medios nacionales a lo largo de la campaña. Su presencia es sorpresiva, aún cuando solo permanecerán por poco menos de un año en el Congreso, pues este grupo de parlamentarios solo completará el período que quedó trunco por la disolución del mismo el 30 de septiembre de 2019.…  Seguir leyendo »

What if they held an election and nobody won?

It sounds like a joke, but Peruvians woke up to it splashed across their headlines this week. In a country where voting is compulsory by law, people dissatisfied with their options risk a fine if they stay home. So instead they turned out this Sunday … and cast more than twice as many spoiled and blank ballots as they did ballots for the most popular party.

While Peruvians were certain they didn’t like the parties in their last Congress, the country did not coalesce around an alternative. The result is that as many as 10 parties will have seats in Congress even though no party received more than 10 percent of the total vote once blank and null ballots are included.…  Seguir leyendo »

Jeanine Áñez y Luis Arce (Getty Images/CNN)

¿Se puede ganar un partido de fútbol con el árbitro en contra y el equipo local golpeando sistemáticamente a sus adversarios para impedirles jugar?

Pues este es el panorama de las elecciones convocadas por el gobierno de facto de Bolivia, para el 3 de mayo. Están dadas todas las condiciones para que el conjunto de fuerzas que impulsó y apoyó el golpe de Estado que derrocó al presidente Evo Morales, el 10 de noviembre de 2019, juegue de local e impida un nuevo triunfo del Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), de Evo Morales.

Los que entonces eran “visitantes” ahora también controlan o influyen con fuerza en el árbitro y los jueces de línea.…  Seguir leyendo »

Figura 2. América Latina: elecciones en 2021-2024

Tema

Electoralmente hablando, 2020 no va a ser un año intrascendente en América Latina: habrá dos comicios presidenciales (República Dominicana y Bolivia), dos elecciones legislativas (Perú y Venezuela), un plebiscito y posiblemente elecciones a Convención Constituyente (Chile), así como numerosas convocatorias locales, entre ellas en Brasil, México y Chile. Esto en una región que vive bajo la incertidumbre y la desafección política, la parálisis económica y un creciente malestar y movilización social.

Resumen

En América Latina, el año 2020 se inserta en un contexto temporal (entre dos grandes ciclos electorales) y político-económico que condicionará tanto los comicios del año como los del nuevo e intenso período electoral (a partir de 2021).…  Seguir leyendo »