OTAN

The Biden administration is warning its NATO allies that Russia is intensifying a covert campaign of sabotage and hybrid warfare against supporters of Ukraine. To counter this rising Russian threat, U.S. intelligence agencies are pushing to their European partners information they can use to disrupt the saboteurs.

This month, the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, briefed the members of NATO’s North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s decision-making body, about a surge in shadowy, Russian-linked attacks that began this spring. Haines summarized U.S. intelligence and urged allies to expose and blunt the Kremlin’s strategy.

Haines’s warnings about Russian sabotage were described to me by Biden administration and intelligence community officials.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Finnish fighter plane near a NATO flag in Constanta, Romania, June 2024. George Calin / Reuters

As war rages in Ukraine and the U.S. presidential campaign heats up, NATO leaders are grappling with how to prepare the alliance for all possible outcomes. The German and Danish defense ministers have warned that Russia could attack NATO allies “within five years”. Conflict could come sooner if Russia achieves a breakthrough on the battlefield in Ukraine. And by the end of the year, former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged Russian leaders to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who “don’t pay up”, referring to the alliance’s spending target, could be the president-elect. Meanwhile, whoever occupies the White House will continue to shift U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

El candidato republicano a la presidencia de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, en un mitin en Nevada este domingo. Reuters

 A pesar del despiadado ataque de Rusia contra Ucrania, los europeos centro-orientales se sienten seguros hoy en día. Confían en la OTAN como organización liderada por Estados Unidos y, por tanto, tenida por fuerte en Moscú.

Al mismo tiempo, muchos políticos, diplomáticos y expertos de Europa del Este se preguntan qué ocurrirá con sus países si Donald Trump gana las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses de noviembre de 2024.

Trump no tiene un perfil claro en política exterior. Algunos lo consideran prorruso o incluso controlado por Putin a través de información comprometedora.

"Una victoria de Trump en 2024 supondría sin duda el fin del apoyo estadounidense a Ucrania", advierte Alexander Vindman, teniente coronel retirado del Ejército estadounidense y exdirector del Consejo de Seguridad Nacional de Estados Unidos, nacido en Kiev.…  Seguir leyendo »

Banderas de la OTAN, la UE y Lituania en Vilna. Foto: : NATO Summit 2023 -European Union

Tema

En el presente análisis se examina el modo de aprovechar la relación entre la OTAN y la UE para impulsar dos grandes objetivos estratégicos: disuadir a Rusia de llevar a cabo nuevas agresiones en Europa y ayudar a Ucrania a defenderse.

Resumen

El regreso de la competición entre las grandes potencias ha dejado obsoleto el marco conceptual en torno al que giran la mayor parte de los debates sobre las relaciones entre la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN) y la Unión Europea (UE). La necesidad de ayudar a Ucrania y el objetivo de impedir nuevas agresiones rusas en Europa se han convertido en las prioridades estratégicas más inmediatas de la mayoría de los Estados miembros de la OTAN y la UE.…  Seguir leyendo »

Por qué Ucrania tiene que entrar a la OTAN

Durante la ceremonia de la firma del Tratado del Atlántico Norte, el 4 de abril de 1949, el entonces presidente de los Estados Unidos Harry Truman observó que si este «sencillo documento» hubiera existido en 1914 y en 1939, «habría evitado los actos de agresión que llevaron a dos guerras mundiales». Según sugirió, la alianza que acababa de crearse aseguraría la paz disuadiendo a posibles agresores.

El éxito de esta estrategia de seguridad colectiva se refleja en la cantidad de países que han hecho uso de la política de puertas abiertas de la OTAN. Desde 1949, la alianza ha crecido de doce a 32 miembros (siendo los añadidos más recientes Finlandia y Suecia).…  Seguir leyendo »

A Swedish soldier and a Finnish soldier participate in a military exercise outside Stockholm, April 2023. Andres Wiklund / TT News Agency

If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition in invading Ukraine was to rein in NATO, it had precisely the opposite effect. In April 2023, Finland joined the alliance, more than doubling the length of NATO’s border with Russia, and in March 2024, Sweden became a member as well. As U.S. President Joe Biden has said of Putin: “He thought he’d get the Finlandization of NATO; instead, he got the NATO-ization of Finland—and Sweden”.

Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine hastened the admissions process, but it was only a matter of time before the two Nordic nations shed their neutrality. Finland’s Cold War policy of nonalignment was always rooted less in principle than in the exigencies of survival; the country was coerced into neutrality by its domineering Soviet neighbor.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian serviceman at a press conference of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Kyiv, April 2024. Thomas Peter / Reuters

Last month, NATO, the world’s most successful military alliance, celebrated its 75th anniversary. Some fear that it may have been its last anniversary with the United States playing a leading role. Former U.S. President Donald Trump still views the alliance as obsolete. If reelected, he says he would encourage Russian leaders to do “whatever the hell they want” to member states that do not pay what he considers to be enough for defense. A second Trump presidency could have dire implications for European security.

Trump’s defenders argue that he is bluffing to pressure Europe into spending more on defense. But former U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Polish Navy ORP Slazak vessel is seen in Gdynia, Poland on 25 June 2023 (Photo by Michal Fludra/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Since Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the narrative around Baltic security among alliance members has been almost triumphant. The Baltic Sea has been described as a ‘ NATO lake’ and various Baltic countries have celebrated the increase in their security.

However, Russia’s recent activity in the Baltic shows that NATO members need to remain vigilant in the region, and even strengthen their defences.

Increasingly paranoid about NATO’s intentions, Russia is likely to push back against the alliance in the Baltic. In the process it could significantly increase the risk of escalation, as it uses its hybrid playbook to test NATO’s defences – and conduct acts of sabotage where there is plausible deniability.…  Seguir leyendo »

Fue el 4 de abril de 1949 cuando diez países europeos (Bélgica, Dinamarca, Francia, Islandia, Italia, Luxemburgo, Noruega, Holanda, Portugal y Reino Unido) y dos americanos (Canadá y Estados Unidos) firmaron en Washington el texto constitutivo de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte, la OTAN. Definían sus sistemas políticos como partidarios de la «democracia, las libertades individuales y el imperio de la ley» y afirmaban su disposición a mantener la paz y la seguridad de los firmantes mediante la asistencia mutua para resistir cualquier ataque armado y en particular manteniendo entre ellos la voluntad de garantizar la defensa colectiva en caso de que uno de los miembros fuera víctima de una agresión.…  Seguir leyendo »

La Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (la alianza militar más exitosa de la historia) hoy es más fuerte que nunca. La plena invasión rusa de Ucrania en febrero de 2022 puso de manifiesto que su propósito y su valor siguen en vigencia; y desde entonces, la organización ha añadido dos nuevos integrantes capaces: Finlandia y Suecia. Pero mientras Rusia no deja de perder soldados, armas y resiliencia económica a largo plazo, es Ucrania, y no la OTAN, la que absorbe los golpes rusos.

¿Qué sucederá en el futuro? La dirigencia europea sabe que Donald Trump tiene firmes chances de ganar la elección presidencial de noviembre en los Estados Unidos, y que su regreso a la Casa Blanca pondría en duda la continuidad del compromiso del principal aportante a la OTAN y la credibilidad de las garantías de seguridad que tornan tan poderosa a la alianza.…  Seguir leyendo »

Foreign ministers and senior officials from NATO states pose for an official press photo at NATO headquarters during the first day of the alliance’s foreign affairs ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Belgium, on April 3. Omar Havana/Getty Images

On this day in 1949, 12 European and North American ministers gathered in Washington, D.C., to commit their nations to one another’s defense. With the scars of the Second World War still raw and new threats looming, they pledged to safeguard the freedom of their peoples.

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization turns 75, and as the foreign ministers of a founding nation and the newest member, we believe that NATO is as relevant to North Americans and Europeans as it was in 1949—and that it is stronger than ever.

This year, two-thirds of NATO allies are expected to spend at least 2 percent of their GDPs on defense.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mientras la OTAN llega a su 75.º aniversario, sigue vigente la idea de que es parasitaria de los Estados Unidos. Donald Trump criticó en más de una ocasión a los aliados transatlánticos de su país por gastar muy poco en defensa, pero hay que recordar que otros presidentes estadounidenses desde Dwight D. Eisenhower (entre ellos John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon y Barack Obama) también presionaron a los europeos para que asumieran una parte mayor de los costos. Cuando Robert S. McNamara (secretario de defensa de Lyndon B. Johnson) insinuó que Estados Unidos podía reducir su presencia militar en Europa si Alemania no incrementaba su aporte, se suscribió entre ambos países un «acuerdo de compensación» por el que Alemania compensaría a Estados Unidos comprándole bienes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Italian Marines participate in the Nordic Response 24 military exercise at sea near Sorstraumen, a Norwegian territory located above the Arctic Circle, on March 10. Jonathan Nackstrand / AFP via Getty Images

Even as its members take part in Steadfast Defender 2024, NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, it is clear that the alliance remains ill-prepared against Russia’s military capabilities in the Arctic. The exercise, which runs between January and May, involves more than 90,000 troops across the Atlantic and up to the Arctic and suggests that NATO has a strong and capable defense presence in the region.

However, a closer look at the capabilities of the Arctic states—which are all NATO members except Russia—reveals otherwise. Finland and Sweden’s recent membership in NATO has been heralded as a turning point in deterrence against Russia in the north.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian flag alongside the NATO emblem, Kyiv, July 2023. Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters

Ukraine is bleeding. Without new U.S. military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military. The U.S. House of Representatives must vote now to pass the emergency spending package that the Senate overwhelmingly approved last month. The most urgent priority is to appropriate funds to resupply Kyiv with artillery shells, air defense missiles, deep-strike rockets, and other critical military needs.

But even once Ukraine receives this much-needed support, a fundamental question remains: how to help Ukraine secure its future. That is a question NATO leaders will need to answer when they meet this July in Washington for their 75th anniversary summit.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. soldiers participating in a NATO exercise in Korzeniewo, Poland, March 2024. Kacper Pempel / Reuters

When NATO leaders meet at a summit in Washington this summer, the alliance’s 75th birthday should be cause for celebration. NATO is stronger than ever, having welcomed two new members, Finland and Sweden, within the past year. After decades of drift, the alliance has found new purpose in deterring Russian aggression, its original raison d’etre. At last, European countries are ramping up their defense spending. Together, these trends paint a bright future for NATO—but there is also peril ahead.

The effort to repel Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is stuttering, and a revisionist Putin is threatening its European neighbors. This, however, is not NATO’s fundamental problem.…  Seguir leyendo »

La princesa heredera de Suecia, Victoria, con el secretario general de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, y Ulf Kristersson, primer ministro de Suecia. OTAN

El 11 de marzo de 2024 será recordado como el día en que la bandera de Suecia fue izada en la sede del Cuartel General de la OTAN en Bélgica, culminando de esta forma el largo proceso de adhesión del país escandinavo, que se convierte en el trigésimo segundo miembro de la Alianza Atlántica.

Si cualquier ingreso en la OTAN debe ser saludado como un acontecimiento notable, el de Suecia con más razón, por la naturaleza del protagonista y por lo tortuoso que ha resultado el proceso, en el que ha sido necesario vencer la resistencia de Turquía y Hungría.

La agresión rusa sobre Ucrania ha cosechado el importante hito de acabar con más de dos siglos de una neutralidad, no desprovista de sombras, que Suecia ha sabido aprovechar en su ventaja.…  Seguir leyendo »

Soldiers from different nations march in the opening ceremony at the 2018 NATO summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Twenty-five years ago, the dream of generations of Poles came true. After two centuries of struggle to maintain an independent state, followed by four decades of Soviet domination, on March 12, 1999, in Independence, Mo., the Republic of Poland — along with the Czech Republic and Hungary — was officially admitted to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the world’s most powerful military alliance.

We have used that time well. Poland, strategically located and the fifth-largest country of the European Union in terms of population and area, with a gross domestic product of $690 billion, is one of NATO’s most committed members.…  Seguir leyendo »

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stands during a press conference with Ukrainian President in Kiev on July 10, 2017. via Getty Images) SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP

As the tides of battle have shifted against Ukraine, amid doubts about whether the U.S. Congress will approve a new round of aid, influential experts such as former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder are repeating their earlier calls to bring Ukraine into NATO sooner rather than later. This step is marketed both as a way to convince Russia that its military campaign cannot keep Ukraine out of the alliance and as needing to provide adequate security for Ukraine when the war finally ends.

Reasonable people can and will disagree about the wisdom of this recommendation, because the contending positions rest on predictions about an uncertain future.…  Seguir leyendo »

Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson watches a military demonstration on 20 February 2024 at Berga naval base. Photograph: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 came as a rude awakening for Sweden. Across the country people suddenly realised that national security vulnerabilities were everywhere. The entire public transit rail network in Stockholm, for example, is operated by MTR, a Hong Kong-based company with ties to the Chinese Communist party.

In the event of Stockholm being attacked by foreign forces, most of the detail about critical infrastructure and tunnels running under the city centre – home to the Swedish parliament, the prime minister’s residence, the state department, the royal castle – could be shared with enemies.

“We have to assume that everything MTR knows about tunnels and infrastructure in Stockholm is also known in Beijing”, says Patrik Oksanen, an expert on national security.…  Seguir leyendo »

A close-up view of an uniform of a Turkish soldier in Prishtina, Kosovo on 7 June 2023. Photo by Arif Hudaverdi Yaman/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

At a recent campaign rally in South Carolina, Donald Trump appeared to invite Vladimir Putin’s Russia to invade any NATO member failing to meet the 2 per cent of GDP target for defence spending.

While his comments appeared to be popular among the MAGA crowd attending the rally, they were immediately condemned on both sides of the Atlantic.

A White House spokesperson called the comments ‘ appalling and unhinged’. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also responded in undiplomatic terms saying: ‘Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk’.…  Seguir leyendo »