OTAN

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Depuis l’édition 2025 de la Conférence de Munich sur la sécurité, les événements diplomatiques qui se succèdent autour des enjeux sécuritaires européens constituent-ils une rupture historique ? Dans ce débat nécessaire, trois réalités déterminantes méritent d’être rappelées.

La première est qu’il y a peu d’orientations de la nouvelle administration à la Maison Blanche que la communauté stratégique européenne puisse faire mine de découvrir. Candidat, Donald Trump ne se cachait pas, et il déroule à présent un programme fondé sur de solides convictions et l’expérience d’un premier mandat au cours duquel il s’est dit empêché. C’est par ailleurs un homme âgé, pressé, qui aimerait imprimer sa marque dans l’histoire.…  Seguir leyendo »

Give Ukraine NATO Membership. Peace Depends on It.

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In Washington and New York last month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said his country’s people were fiercely committed to a just and lasting peace to end the war on their nation. This week in Kyiv, I heard a similar sentiment from every Ukrainian I spoke with, from senior officials to frontline soldiers. They want Russians out of their country and security guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty.

When the war ends, Ukraine must join NATO. An end to the conflict will come either with Ukraine repelling the Russian invaders or with the international community pressuring Russia to halt it, or both, as President Zelensky has suggested.…  Seguir leyendo »

Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte speaks to the media on the first day of the 2023 NATO Summit on 11 July 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania. Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.

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When Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary-general on 1 October, he will have big shoes to fill. Taking office in 2014, Stoltenberg led NATO during a turbulent time and stewarded the alliance through many challenges. He also oversaw NATO expansion as four countries joined during his tenure, and helped the alliance redefine its purpose in the face of a resurgent threat from Russia, as evidenced through its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Stoltenberg now passes the baton to former Dutch prime minister Rutte. Nicknamed ‘Teflon Mark’ because of his ability to shake off any political crisis, he is broadly seen as a consensus builder and coalition maker, having governed with broad ranges of political parties as prime minister.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Durante la pasada cumbre de la OTAN, celebrada en Washington, entre los días 9 y 11 de julio, se presentó ante la opinión pública el informe final del grupo de expertos independientes para el apoyo al proceso de reflexión global en profundidad de la OTAN sobre la vecindad meridional.

En dicho informe se formulan 114 recomendaciones a corto, medio y largo plazo y se identifican diversas áreas de interés en la denominada vecindad meridional, tales como África del Norte, Oriente Medio, el Sahel y las regiones marítimas adyacentes. Todas ellas con la amplitud y complejidad suficientes para constituir todas y cada una, por sí solas, objeto de especial atención.…  Seguir leyendo »

The NATO star is seen through a window at the organization's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on April 4. Omar Havana/Getty Images

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Threatened by values that are at the core of the NATO alliance and shared by Ukraine and many other countries around the world, the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with the intention to wipe the country off the map, crush freedom, and weaken democracy. In doing so, Russia receives significant support, including the provision of advanced technology, from its authoritarian friends, not least China, Iran, and North Korea. More than Ukraine’s survival, Europe’s security is at stake. As a global fight is being played out on the battlefield in Ukraine, innovative technologies are being rolled out at unprecedented speed.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets of the Polish Air Force take part in a NATO shielding exercise at Lask Air Base, Poland, on Oct. 12, 2022. Omar Marques/Getty Images

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In the early hours of Sunday, Sept. 8, a Russian drone flew into Romanian airspace during a nighttime attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports. Romania scrambled two F-16s to monitor the situation, according to the Romanian Defense Ministry. A day earlier, an Iranian-type Shahed drone armed with explosives flew from Belarus into Latvia—which is neither close to Ukraine nor on a direct flight path—and crashed near the Latvian city of Rezekne, about 35 miles from the closest section of the Belarusian border. Throughout the war, by accident or design, Russian missiles and attack drones have repeatedly infringed the airspace of Romania, Latvia, Poland, and other NATO members —and hit the alliance’s territory.…  Seguir leyendo »

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. President Donald Trump in Watford, United Kingdom, December 2019. Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

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Europe may soon find itself in a tight spot. By the end of January 2025, the continent’s most important partner, the United States, could be led by former President Donald Trump, who has said that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell it wanted” to European countries that did not do what he wanted: spend more on defense. The previous Trump administration strained the transatlantic relationship, and the next iteration would almost certainly be worse. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first term, a second-term Trump would face fewer obstacles to making good on his threats.…  Seguir leyendo »

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La cumbre de la OTAN que tuvo lugar en Washington pocos días antes del atentado contra Donald Trump estuvo copada por tres frentes: China, Ucrania… y un posible segundo mandato del empresario neoyorquino. Y no necesariamente en ese orden.

Tras el debate presidencial que sumió al Partido Demócrata en una crisis interna que no hace más que agravarse, y con las encuestas mostrando un Joe Biden en caída libre, fueron legión los socios de la alianza atlántica que decidieron utilizar la cumbre para acercarse al círculo de Trump con una doble misión.

Tantear, en primer lugar, cuáles son sus verdaderas intenciones en lo que a política exterior se refiere.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Joe Biden and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the final day of the NATO Summit in Washington DC on 11 July 2024. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Ukraine had a good NATO summit this time round. That may seem a strange judgement, after leaders in Washington again delivered an equivocal statement on exactly when Ukraine will start formal proceedings to join the alliance.

But the fact that the invitation wasn’t a big issue was a notable success. Another was that leaders took more important decisions on what is needed now to ensure that Russia’s attempt to extinguish Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence ends in total failure.

Of course, Ukraine’s membership of NATO is a very big issue. Russia’s full-on war on Ukraine – and Vladimir Putin’s repeated reminders that this is part of a war on ‘the West’ – have brought about fundamental changes in the European security environment.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attend a news briefing in Minsk, Belarus, on May 24. (Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Reuters)

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Upon signing the North Atlantic Treaty, U.S. President Harry S. Truman declared, “We believe that it is possible for nations to achieve unity on the great principles of human freedom and justice”. Seventy-five years later, as the NATO summit convenes in D.C., the NATO alliance continues to stand as a bulwark against tyranny.

Unfortunately, tyranny is on the march in Eastern Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of conquest in democratic Ukraine is emblematic of this sad trend. The mass terror and repression in neighboring Belarus, wrought by “Europe’s last dictator”, Alexander Lukashenko, is less frequently reported on.

Lukashenko is known to be Putin’s closest ally.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) listens to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (right) speak during NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington on July 10. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

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The NATO alliance turned 75 this year. For some, this milestone proves how important the trans-Atlantic alliance is to U.S. and global security. More than seven decades of alliance coordination to solve some of the world’s toughest challenges is nothing to sneeze at, after all. But for others, the alliance’s age is evidence of NATO’s increasing irrelevance—the international security equivalent of a senior citizen shaking a cane at the state of the world and missing the boat on the questions that really matter, such as Gaza or Chinese economic coercion. Not to mention the long-standing perception that Europe isn’t pulling its weight when it comes to defense spending.…  Seguir leyendo »

A general view of the Prague NATO summit at the Prague Congress Centre, on Nov. 21, 2002. GERARD CERLES/AFP via Getty Images

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When any institution—a university, a corporation, a think tank, or even a married couple—reaches its 75th anniversary, you can expect to hear its supporters offer up a rose-colored litany of its accomplishments, virtues, and remarkable longevity. The NATO summit in Washington will be no exception: There are bound to be plenty of speeches celebrating the alliance’s past achievements and extolling its role as the cornerstone of trans-Atlantic relations.

Yet one cannot ignore the dark clouds casting ominous shadows over NATO’s upcoming love fest. Donald Trump is an even-money bet to return as U.S. president in 2025, the far-right National Rally is now the most powerful political movement in France, Hungary’s Viktor Orban remains a disruptive force, and Europeans and Americans are divided over the Israel-Hamas war, China, the regulation of digital technologies, and the best way to help an increasingly beleaguered Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

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“Más grande, más fuerte y más unida que nunca”, así es como su secretario general, Jens Stoltenberg, veía a la OTAN con ocasión de la reunión de los ministros de Exteriores que en abril celebraron los 75 años de su creación. Nada cabe matizar en cuanto al tamaño, si se recuerda que de los 12 aliados iniciales se ha pasado a los 32 actuales, con algunos candidatos más a la puerta. Pero no ocurre lo mismo con las otras dos afirmaciones.

Es obvio que, en términos materiales y al hilo de un desarrollo tecnológico acelerado, las capacidades militares que hoy acumulan los aliados son infinitamente superiores a las de antaño.…  Seguir leyendo »

How Trump can make NATO great again

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As NATO gathers for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington this week, President Biden is taking credit for the fact that European allies and Canada have increased defense spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and warning that, if elected, Donald Trump will “eviscerate NATO”.

In fact, Trump, not Biden, is responsible for most of that spending increase. In 2006, allies pledged to spend at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense, but when Trump took office a decade later, only three were meeting their commitment, and spending by non-U.S. members had dropped to an all-time low of 1.4 percent in 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a joint press conference in Kyiv on April 29. Roman Pilpey/AFP/Getty Images

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Ukraine should be front and center this week when the Biden administration hosts the NATO summit in Washington. This is no time, into the third year of this terrible war, for obfuscation—either out of fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin might escalate into use of nuclear weapons (highly unlikely) or of the unknown if Russia were to suffer defeat in Ukraine (beyond our control).

The more weapons, technology, and assistance provided to Ukraine and the faster it is done, the more successful Ukraine’s outlook will be in defeating Russia. Success for Ukraine is difficult but by no means impossible. Failure is not an option.…  Seguir leyendo »

La OTAN, a la sombra del 'Gran Juego 2.0'

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La cumbre de la OTAN que arranca mañana en Washington conmemora el 75º aniversario de la Alianza Atlántica, pero también ofrece una oportunidad para evaluar la adaptación de esta a un nuevo entorno internacional marcado por el retorno de la rivalidad geopolítica entre las grandes potencias. Hay motivos para la celebración -su longevidad y el éxito conseguido al garantizar la defensa colectiva-, pero también otros para la preocupación: dos guerras en la vecindad europea (Ucrania y Gaza), la relación con el «competidor sistemático» (China), las amenazas de la vecindad sur y la guerra híbrida, entre otros.

Este 75º aniversario hace de la OTAN la más duradera alianza militar de la historia.…  Seguir leyendo »

Flags at a NATO military exercise, Lest, Slovakia, April 2024. Radovan Stoklasa / Reuters

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Writing in Foreign Affairs last week, NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, took aim at Beijing, condemning its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and declaring that NATO had entered a new era of “enduring competition with China”. This situation “shows that in today’s world, security is not a regional matter but a global one”, he wrote, adding, “Europe’s security affects Asia, and Asia’s security affects Europe”. This is not a new idea. Stoltenberg has long championed a greater role for NATO in countering China’s rise. “Everything is intertwined”, he said in June, referring to European and Asian security at a joint press conference with U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addressing Ukrainian lawmakers, Kyiv, April 2024. Andrii Nesterenko / Reuters

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We know what will not happen at NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington this week: Ukraine becoming the alliance’s 33rd member. U.S. officials are talking instead about giving Ukraine “a bridge to NATO”, as National Security Council Senior Director for Europe Michael Carpenter put it recently. But when it comes to membership, many of the alliance’s leaders—including the United States and Germany—remain concerned that a formal move will be impossible as long as Kyiv is at war, given the centrality of the alliance’s Article 5 guarantee that an attack against one will be considered an attack against all.

Yet such concerns, while understandable, do not take sufficient account of either the current state of U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Military vehicles are pictured at a plant, which is part of Russian missile manufacturer Almaz-Antey, in Saint Petersburg on 18 January 2023. Photo by ILYA PITALEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images.

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In mid-July, NATO leaders will gather in Washington for the annual summit of the alliance, the 10th such summit since the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

The Washington summit also marks a decade of renewed deterrence policy against the Kremlin and international targeted sanctions against Russia. Moscow has been waging its unrelenting war against Ukraine and the wider Western world for over a decade too, with two invasions, as well as upscaling low-intensity warfare activities against Western interests and NATO.

In this context, future NATO policy regarding Russia seems clear: the Kremlin represents a strategic threat to the safety and security of the alliance and its allies.…  Seguir leyendo »

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A few days before Donald Trump is formally nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, the 32 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) will gather in Washington, DC to celebrate its 75th birthday. Even with a storm cloud of Trumpian scepticism looming over the military alliance, there will be plenty of cheering and self-congratulation.

NATO’s breadth and longevity are indeed remarkable. But the world is becoming increasingly fractious, with a mixture of old and new threats that range from nuclear sabre-rattling to hostile states targeting military research with cyber-attacks.

Maintaining support for Ukraine and countering Russia’s aggression will be top of the agenda at the summit on July 9th-11th.…  Seguir leyendo »