What’s new? A second large-scale Russian military buildup near Ukraine's borders in 2021 has raised fears of a major war between the two countries.
Why did it happen? With peace talks stalled, Moscow appears disillusioned with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even as it has not abandoned its goal of an aligned Ukraine, which it sees as increasingly threatened by that country’s ever closer military cooperation with NATO member states.
Why does it matter? Although Moscow may hope the threat of war alone will attain its goals, it has already proven its willingness to fight in Ukraine. A Russian military offensive would have horrific immediate effects and risk escalation as NATO countries that have vocally supported Ukraine respond with a range of tools.
What should be done? Western capitals and Kyiv should define how they would respond to Russian aggression and clearly communicate the danger of escalation to Moscow. If the Kremlin backs down, renewed talks over Ukraine should be paired with agreements to limit military deployments and actions around European flashpoints.