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The scene of an Israeli air strike in Syria’s Latakia region is pictured on 5 May 2021 (SANA/AFP)

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The explosion of a  Syrian anti-aircraft missile in southern Israel on 22 April, followed by Israeli attacks  around the northern city of Latakia on 5 May, were only the latest episodes of the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been fighting in war-ravaged Syria for several years. They will not be the last.

Neither side wants these occasional flareups to grow into a fully fledged confrontation. But the risk of escalation is real due to potential miscalculations or technical errors in both sides’ attempts to achieve tactical gains.

The involvement of Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important non-state ally, in the Syrian theatre carries a further risk that comparatively low-level altercations in Syria may spill over into Lebanon and trigger a destructive conflict between the heavily armed Shia group and Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Reports of Israeli airstrikes in Syria have frequently obscured the issues that are really driving Israel's decision-making. The most important notion to dispel is that Israel has decided to play an active role in the Syrian conflict. Not so. Israel has no interest in getting drawn into the quagmire. Its target is strategic weapons destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its actions were driven not by ambitions to shape Syria's future, but by concerns about the strategic balance between itself and the Hezbollah-Iran axis.

Israel has followed the Syrian conflict with mixed feelings. On the one hand, it appreciates the potential benefits of President Bashar al-Assad's departure, which would be a blow to Iran and Hezbollah.…  Seguir leyendo »

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El Dr. Walid Phares es un experto en terrorismo, fundamentalismo islámico y movimientos yihadistas. Es miembro decano de la Fundación de la Defensa de las Democracias (GEES, 18/05/06):

El 26 de abril del 2005, las fotografías de "los últimos" soldados sirios se veían por todo el mundo. Hoy, en el primer aniversario anual de la retirada de las fuerzas regulares sirias del Líbano, hay motivos de celebración y otros motivos de gran preocupación. Mientras que los controles sirios se han desvanecido de Beirut y las diversas regiones del Líbano, muchas preguntas rondan la mente aún de la mayor parte de los libaneses y sus amigos en todo el mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »