Yan Xuetong

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Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of th​e People, Beijing, March 2017. Qilai Shen / Panos Pictures / Redu​x

Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced a strategic predicament for China. On the one hand, the conflict has disrupted billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese trade, heightened tensions in East Asia, and deepened political polarization within China by dividing people into pro- and anti-Russia camps. On the other, China blames the United States for provoking Russia with its support for NATO expansion and worries that Washington will seek to prolong the conflict in Ukraine in order to bog down Russia. Beijing sees little to gain from joining the international chorus condemning Moscow.

Regardless of what China says or does in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage war in Ukraine, Washington is unlikely to soften its strategy of containment toward Beijing.…  Seguir leyendo »

With the end of America’s presidential campaign and the close this week of China’s 18th Communist Party Congress, leaders of these two countries now have to look ahead and consider how to handle their relations for the next four years.

President Obama, in selecting Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia for his first trip abroad after re-election, is indicating his persistence in pivoting America’s focus to East Asia, a strategy that implies a new round of competition between China and the United States. The stability of China-U.S. relations will be determined by how capable the leaders of both countries are at developing tangible means of cooperation — rather than continuing their counterproductive talk about “mutual trust.”…  Seguir leyendo »

With China’s growing influence over the global economy, and its increasing ability to project military power, competition between the United States and China is inevitable. Leaders of both countries assert optimistically that the competition can be managed without clashes that threaten the global order.

Most academic analysts are not so sanguine. If history is any guide, China’s rise does indeed pose a challenge to America. Rising powers seek to gain more authority in the global system, and declining powers rarely go down without a fight. And given the differences between the Chinese and American political systems, pessimists might believe that there is an even higher likelihood of war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Since the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, Chinese analysts have been debating whether China should take on more international responsibility. Two opposite schools of thought have emerged within China.

On the one hand, a growing chorus of critics question China’s decades-old foreign policy doctrine, first put forth by Deng Xiaoping, that stresses the importance of keeping a low profile on the world stage. These analysts say the nation needs to be more bold and assertive in international affairs in a way that matches China’s newfound status as a major world power.

On the other hand is the Chinese mainstream, which says that the international calls for China to take on more international responsibilities is a conspiracy by Western countries intended to exhaust our economic resources by saddling it with more obligations abroad.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hace seis décadas, el diplomático estadounidense George Kennan escribió un artículo, “Los orígenes de la conducta soviética”, que galvanizó la opinión norteamericana y mundial, que pronto se endureció hasta adoptar las posturas rígidas de la Guerra Fría. Hoy, dada la decisiva influencia de China en la economía global, y su creciente capacidad para proyectar poder militar, entender los orígenes de la conducta china se ha convertido en una cuestión central en las relaciones internacionales. De hecho, un mejor entendimiento de las motivaciones en materia de política exterior de China puede ayudar a impedir que las relaciones entre China y Estados Unidos se endurezcan al punto de convertirse en posturas rígidas y antagónicas.…  Seguir leyendo »