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Si me hubieran preguntado hace diez años si la India habría podido superar a China en términos de tamaño económico, mi respuesta hubiera sido muy clara: imposible. La economía china es ya entre cinco y seis veces mayor que la india y durante los últimos años la única comparación posible para la economía china era la de Estados Unidos. De hecho, el propio presidente Xi Jinping, antes de la pandemia, auguró que la economía china alcanzaría a la de EE UU en 2027.
Desde el final de la pandemia las cosas han cambiado mucho. No solo la economía china ha empezado a divergir de la americana, hasta el punto de que ya mucho piensan que nunca llegará a ser más grande, sino que también la India crece mucho más rápido que China.… Seguir leyendo »
Lejos de las guerras en Ucrania y Gaza que hoy por hoy acaparan los titulares, en un rincón del Mar Arábigo se viene desarrollando un conflicto diplomático extraño entre la India y Maldivas, que amenaza los intereses estratégicos indios.
La India y Maldivas son adversarios improbables. Con una superficie de 3,1 millones de kilómetros cuadrados, la India es 11.000 veces más grande que Maldivas, con una superficie que apenas llega a 300 kilómetros cuadrados. La población de la India de más de 1.400 millones de habitantes eclipsa los 500.000 residentes de Maldivas.
Asimismo, Maldivas ha necesitado del apoyo de la India, su vecino más próximo, en todo tipo de crisis por las que atravesó.… Seguir leyendo »
In the summer of 2021, the world learned that China was dramatically expanding its nuclear arsenal. Satellite imagery showed Beijing building as many as 300 new ballistic missile silos. The Pentagon now projects that China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons, which had for years rested in the low hundreds, could spike to 1,500 warheads by 2035, confirming suspicions that Beijing has decided to join Russia and the United States in the front rank of nuclear powers.
Security experts are only beginning to sort through the implications of China’s nuclear breakout. They would do well to consider Ashley Tellis’s new book, Striking Asymmetries, which assesses the implications of Beijing’s actions from the vantage point of the rivalries between South Asia’s three nuclear powers: China, India, and Pakistan.… Seguir leyendo »
En abril, las Naciones Unidas estimaron que India había superado a China como el país más poblado del mundo. Si bien este anuncio recibió mucha atención de los medios, el censo de 2024 que se llevará a cabo en India probablemente revele que las proyecciones de las Naciones Unidas han estado sumamente sobreestimadas.
Según los datos que arrojaron los censos más recientes de India, la población del país se mantuvo en 1.030 millones en 2001 y en 1.210 millones en 2011. Sin embargo, el informe Perspectivas de la Población Mundial 2022 (WPP) de las Naciones Unidas coloca esas cifras en 1.080 millones y 1.260 millones, respectivamente.… Seguir leyendo »
On a freezing December day on a remote Himalayan mountain ridge, Indian and Chinese soldiers fought with sticks, stones, clubs and bare fists. Scores were bloodied and injured. The incident, according to the Indian authorities, occurred on Dec. 9, when about 300 soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army of China attempted to occupy Yangtse, a mountainous border post on the disputed India-China border in the Tawang area in northeastern India.
Soldiers from China and India, nuclear-armed Asian neighbors, have been clashing on their disputed border with an alarming frequency owing to the rise of aggressive nationalisms in President Xi Jinping’s China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s India.… Seguir leyendo »
Pobablemente no sepan situar en un mapamundi los estados de Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin o Uttarkhand. Sin embargo, fue en estos estados indios del Himalaya donde dio comienzo, en 1962, un conflicto fronterizo entre los dos países más poblados del mundo. La línea divisoria, más de 5.000 kilómetros de montaña, fue inicialmente trazada por los colonizadores británicos, pero desde su respectiva independencia nunca ha sido aceptada ni por India ni por China. La prensa internacional rara vez se hace eco de este conflicto porque, después de un violento enfrentamiento en 1962, los dos ejércitos, que cohabitan cara a cara, se contentan con insultos y puñetazos cuando las patrullas se cruzan demasiado cerca.… Seguir leyendo »
In June 2020, the Chinese and Indian militaries clashed in the Galwan Valley, a rugged and remote area along the disputed border between the two countries. Twenty Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed, and debate flared about the long-term implications of the skirmishes. Some analysts believed the Sino-Indian relationship would soon return to normal, with regular high-level meetings, increased Chinese investment in India, defense exchanges, and multilateral coordination. Record-high bilateral trade and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s trip to India in March 2022 seemed to support the notion that the two countries could set aside the border dispute and keep strengthening ties.… Seguir leyendo »
Los Juegos Olímpicos de Tokio han terminado, y en Japón, pueblo y gobierno suspiran aliviados, ahora que el espectáculo pasó sin que hubiera un brote importante de COVID‑19 en la villa olímpica u otros desastres. Aquí en la India, aún duran las celebraciones por la primera medalla de oro que obtiene el país en la competencia masculina de lanzamiento de jabalina (y su mejor cosecha de medallas en cualquier Olimpíada). Pero ¿hay tanto de qué alegrarse?
Hace unos diez años, era común mencionar juntas a la India y China en la misma oración. Se suponía que tras siglos de influencia occidental, eran los nuevos contendientes por el predominio global, la respuesta oriental a generaciones de éxito económico de Occidente.… Seguir leyendo »
When Mumbai’s electrical grid went down last October, Indian officials blamed “technical problems” for the outage that left millions without power or cellphone service. Power outages are not unusual in India, and service was restored within a few hours for essential services. A New York Times story months later suggested that this was a Chinese cyberattack, possibly a warning to India during the two countries’ border dispute.
China denied that its hackers were behind the power outage, but India’s chief of defense staff, Gen. Bipin Rawat, has since said, “We know that China is capable of launching cyberattacks on us, and that can disrupt a large amount of our systems”.… Seguir leyendo »
A one-sentence statement from China’s Ministry of National Defense on Feb. 10 announced a simultaneous disengagement of Indian and Chinese forces at Pangong Lake on their disputed border. Ten days later, the disengagement was complete, with a buffer zone separating troops on the lake’s northern bank.
What happened?
The disengagement may be a sign of easing tensions along part of the India-China border dispute known as the western sector. Also called Ladakh or Aksai Chin, this area comprises roughly 12,7000 square miles (excluding areas of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir that India also claims as part of this sector). In multiple areas, China and India hold conflicting views of where the Line of Actual Control (LAC) lies, which creates numerous smaller disputes within the larger territorial conflict.… Seguir leyendo »
India and China are once again clashing along their disputed border in the Himalayas — for the first time since 1975. Soldiers on both sides have lost their lives — including at least 20 Indians and an unknown number of their Chinese counterparts.
Yet headlines in the outside world have largely overlooked the fate of local civilians — embodied by five young men from the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. Apparently hired as porters for the Indian Army, they were captured by the Chinese on Sept. 1 and held captive until just a few days ago, when, thankfully, they were finally returned home to their families.… Seguir leyendo »
Last week, the India-China border standoff came the closest it has yet to war. As Taylor Fravel explained, the long-standing border dispute dates from the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The dispute came to a boil in May when a large force of Chinese soldiers crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the disputed border between the two countries since 1962. A deadly skirmish in June temporarily raised tensions, but it was the result of tragic happenstance rather than large and risky military maneuvers.
Tensions have escalated more seriously since late August because both sides have jostled for tactical advantage, creating incentives for each side to outflank or even fight the other.… Seguir leyendo »
Tens of thousands of Chinese and Indian troops are facing off in the uppermost reaches of the Himalayas, on the precipice of a possible war between the two major countries.
China’s incursions into eastern Ladakh across the Line of Actual Control that separates it from India should be seen as part of its global pattern of bad behavior. If left unchallenged, China’s provocative and perfidious military actions along the border with India could destabilize South Asia.
China’s massive buildup of troops and infrastructure in pockets across the border not only violates bilateral agreements, but also forces Indians to confront a new reality.… Seguir leyendo »
Tras el choque del mes pasado en el valle del Galwan (región de Ladakh), en el que murieron 20 soldados indios y una cantidad desconocida de uniformados chinos, la India y China se preparan para un duelo prolongado en la disputada frontera en los Himalayas (aunque se informa de una retirada del sitio del enfrentamiento). Lo más importante, sin embargo, es que la reciente escaramuza puede ser señal de un cambio más amplio en la geopolítica asiática.
Esta idea puede parecer a primera vista exagerada, ya que ambos países venían haciendo esfuerzos aceptables por convivir. Si bien nunca llegaron a una solución duradera respecto de su disputada frontera de 3500 kilómetros (2200 millas), en 45 años no hubo un solo disparo en la línea de control efectivo (LAC por la sigla en inglés).… Seguir leyendo »
On June 15 at 6.30 p.m., Col. Santosh Babu, an Indian army officer from the southern state of Telangana, organized 20 of his men to accompany him on what he thought was a straightforward mission. He’d been informed that the monthlong simmering tension between India and China at different points of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh was drawing to a close. Military commanders had agreed to “de-escalate"; the Chinese were to withdraw from areas inside Indian territory. His job that evening was to ensure that the two tents erected by the Chinese inside the Galwan Valley (named such by the British for Rasool Galwan, a teenage Indian trekker who helped save their lives in 1895) were taken down, per the negotiated agreement.… Seguir leyendo »
Tensions between Indian and Chinese troops have simmered since early May in the remote, high Karakoram mountains that separate India’s northern Ladakh region from the alkaline desert of Aksai Chin, which is claimed by India but controlled by China and abuts its Xinjiang province.
It is a forbidding landscape of cold deserts, snow-capped peaks, sparse vegetation and freezing temperature about 14,000 feet above sea level. On Monday evening, in a brutal hand-to-hand battle, Chinese soldiers killed at least 20 Indian soldiers with wooden staves and nail-studded clubs, in the severest escalation of the dispute on the Sino-Indian frontier in decades.
British colonial authorities bequeathed India a border with China that was neither delineated on a map nor demarcated on the ground.… Seguir leyendo »
On Monday, for the first time in 45 years, Indian and Chinese soldiers engaged in fatal, localized skirmishes along the more than 2,000-mile disputed boundary between the two countries. It’s a significant escalation of tensions between the two Asian nuclear powers, who have been engaged in a sometimes-violent standoff since early May, though one that had until this week not led to any deaths.
The situation had already attracted considerable international concern, with President Trump on May 27 offering U.S. diplomatic assistance to India and China to help resolve what he called at that earlier stage “their now raging border dispute.”… Seguir leyendo »
The deaths of 20 Indian soldiers, including a commanding officer, in the first deadly clash with Chinese troops in 45 years came as Beijing and New Delhi had supposedly reached an agreement to lower the tension along the border in the mountainous region of Ladakh, high in the Himalayas.
India blames China for trying to alter the status quo at the Line of Actual Control, or the LAC. Since May 5, Chinese troops had crossed the border and squatted on Indian territory, triggering a standoff. When Indian soldiers went into the Galwan Valley to supervise what was meant to be the agreed retreat of Chinese troops from the area, they were attacked by 500 Chinese troops with stones, iron rods, nails and other objects.… Seguir leyendo »
La COVID‑19 no es la única amenaza que este año cruzó las fronteras de la India. Según informes alarmantes del ministerio de defensa indio, China ha desplegado una «cantidad significativa» de soldados a través de la disputada «línea de control efectivo» (LAC, por la sigla en inglés) que discurre a lo largo de la frontera entre ambos países en los Himalayas. Hasta ahora, las transgresiones se produjeron en cuatro puntos de la frontera más larga y disputada del mundo, con la aparición de miles de soldados chinos en Sikkim y en partes de la región de Ladakh, al noreste del valle de Cachemira.… Seguir leyendo »
One of the more serious recent military stand-offs between India and China took place in 2017. The following year, however, a summit between China’s President, Xi Jinping, and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, appeared to change course back towards some kind of peaceful co-existence.
From the Indian perspective, views towards China have varied between strategic hawks and other groups – notably commercial – benefitting from engagement with China. The latter appeared to be in the ascendency.
However, a series of flare-ups along the border in May might be changing that calculation. Several reports of unarmed combat between soldiers have been reported at separate locations along the border.… Seguir leyendo »
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