Armas nucleares

Cillian Murphy stars in Oppenheimer. Universal Pictures

In a key scene of Christopher Nolan’s biopic of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the director of the weapons laboratory in Los Alamos, New Mexico, addresses a crowd of foot-stamping scientists, engineers, and staff. The father of the atomic bomb exudes an uncharacteristic ferocity: “The world will remember this day. It’s too soon to determine what the result of the bombing are, but I’ll bet the Japanese didn’t like it. I’m so proud, so proud of what you have accomplished. I just wish we’d had it in time to use against the Germans”.

Filmgoers know what comes next—the blinding flash, the deafening roar, the carbonized corpse—victory turned to ashes in the cheering mouths of those who forged an artificial sun.…  Seguir leyendo »

Richard Gigger, a la derecha, discutiendo una partitura. Cortesía de la familia Kaminer

El cielo ensombrecido se extiende sobre kilómetros de arena desértica mientras, a lo lejos, desde un andamio iluminado, se eleva el objeto que cambiará el mundo. La primera prueba atómica es la escena que define Oppenheimer, ganadora de siete Premios de la Academia el domingo por la noche, incluido el de mejor película. La escena se desarrolla durante casi siete minutos de tensión in crescendo: nadie sabía si la bomba estallaría esa noche y, en caso de que sí, si incineraría al mundo entero.

Cuando vi la película, en el fin de semana del estreno, la escena me pareció insoportable, a pesar de que la historia ya había registrado lo que pasaba.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Está de regreso la proliferación nuclear?

Ya están avanzados los preparativos de la Conferencia de Revisión de las Naciones Unidas de las Partes del Tratado de No Proliferación de Armas Nucleares (NPT, por sus siglas en inglés), firmado originalmente en 1968 y que se actualizará en 2026. Muchos esperan un evento conflictivo. Algunos países están pensando mejor el principio de no proliferación, ya que se preguntan si Rusia hubiera invadido Ucrania en 2022 si este país se hubiera quedado con las armas nucleares que heredó de la Unión Soviética. A su vez, estos contrafactuales han renovado los temores de otros países a la proliferación nuclear.

Por supuesto, estas preocupaciones no tienen nada de nuevo.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Russian-crewed spacecraft blasting off to the International Space Station, Baikonur, Kazakhstan, September 2023. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters

Then Mike Turner, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, issued a cryptic warning last week about the “serious national security threat” represented by a secret Russian military capability, the Republican representative from Ohio generated a wave of anxiety. Concern about Turner’s statement deepened when White House spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that Moscow is developing a “troubling” antisatellite weapon. Soon, multiple news outlets, such as The New York Times, were reporting that Moscow might be preparing to deploy a nuclear weapon in space.

The purpose of such a weapon may well be to destroy the large-scale satellite constellations used for communications and reconnaissance.…  Seguir leyendo »

Banderas de Corea del Norte y Rusia junto a una estación de tren por la visita de Kim Jong Un a Vladivostok, el 25 de abril de 2019. Reuters

Es difícil precisar el número exacto de trabajadores norcoreanos que viven hoy en Rusia ya que muchos de ellos regresaron a Corea del Norte en 2019 tras la adopción de la Resolución 2397 del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, que les obligaba a ello. Moscú dijo que había repatriado a la mayoría de los trabajadores norcoreanos a finales de 2019, dejando sólo unas 1.000 personas. Sin embargo, las cifras rusas parecen ser falsas.

Según el Informe 2023 sobre Trata de Personas del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos, Moscú expidió 4.723 visados a norcoreanos en 2022 para eludir la resolución de la ONU que prohíbe la mano de obra norcoreana en el extranjero.…  Seguir leyendo »

Is This a Sputnik Moment?

Earlier this week, veiled comments started to emerge on Capitol Hill regarding an unnamed and “serious national security threat”. By Thursday, a White House spokesman, John Kirby, let the American public in on what members of Congress were talking about: a new Russian space-based antisatellite capability that violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, suspected of being a space-based nuclear weapon.

Officials say the system is not active, and they have not detailed what it can do. But if it is what the White House suggests, we may now find ourselves facing this generation’s Sputnik moment. In 1957, when the former Soviet Union launched the world’s first satellite and shocked Americans, the Eisenhower administration had known about the Soviets’ satellite capabilities for almost two years.…  Seguir leyendo »

At a rally in support of Palestinians, Tehran, November 2023. Majid Asgaripour / Reuters

Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Iran’s government has sounded bullish, even triumphalist notes. “The Zionist regime’s defeat in this event is not just the defeat of the Zionist regime”, contended Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a speech last month, referencing Israeli setbacks on the battlefield. “It is also the defeat of the U.S”. At the beginning of January, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi boasted that his country’s enemies “can see Iran’s power, and the whole world knows its strength and capabilities”. And a few days later, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson declared that the so-called axis of resistance—the network of partners and proxies Iran backs across the region—is more “coherent, resilient and united than ever”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian intercontinental ballistic missile systems being paraded through Moscow, May 2023. Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters

To hear U.S. officials tell it, there is little risk that the war in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. “We don’t have any indication that Mr. Putin has any intention to use weapons of mass destruction—let alone nuclear weapons”, said White House spokesperson John Kirby in January. At a Senate hearing in early May, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russia was “very unlikely” to use its nuclear arsenal. Yes, CIA Director William Burns said a February speech, the United States must take Putin’s nuclear saber rattling seriously. But the purpose of such rhetoric, Burns continued, was “to intimidate us, as well as our European allies and Ukraine”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Prevenir el Armagedón nuclear de la IA

Ya no es ciencia ficción: la carrera por aplicar la inteligencia artificial a los sistemas de armas nucleares está en marcha, un avance que podría hacer más probable una guerra nuclear. Ahora que los gobiernos de todo el mundo actúan para garantizar el desarrollo y la aplicación seguros de la IA, existe una oportunidad de mitigar este peligro. Pero si los líderes mundiales quieren aprovecharla, primero deben reconocer cuán grave es la amenaza.

En las últimas semanas, el G7 acordó el Código Internacional de Conducta del Proceso de Hiroshima para organizaciones que desarrollan sistemas avanzados de IA, con el fin de “promover una IA segura y confiable en todo el mundo”, y el presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, emitió una orden ejecutiva que establece nuevos estándares para la “seguridad y protección” de la IA.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, October 2019. Thomas Peter / Reuters.

Among the many issues surrounding China’s ongoing military modernization, perhaps none has been more dramatic than its nuclear weapons program. For decades, the Chinese government was content to maintain a comparatively small nuclear force. As recently as 2020, China’s arsenal was little changed from previous decades and amounted to some 220 weapons, around five to six percent of either the U.S. or Russian stockpiles of deployed and reserve warheads.

Since then, however, China has been rapidly expanding and modernizing its arsenal. In 2020, it began constructing three silo fields to house more than 300 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). A year later, it successfully tested a hypersonic glide vehicle that traveled 21,600 miles, a test that likely demonstrated China’s ability to field weapons that can orbit the earth before striking targets, known as a “fractional orbital bombardment system”.…  Seguir leyendo »

The nuclear talks could lay the groundwork for crucial agreement on risk reduction

After many years of fruitless ‘talks about talks’, China and the US have just met in Washington for what is hoped to be the first in a series of discussions on nuclear arms control, the first since the Obama administration.

The meetings, said to be at the ‘working level’, will likely focus on developing a new approach based on increasing transparency and risk reduction rather than on numbers and inspections. It is hoped that this discussion will feed into a high-level meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco later in November.

Until now, China has resisted attempts to enter into talks with the US on either a trilateral (with Russia) or bilateral basis, saying that until the US and Russia reduce their numbers down to China’s level – or until China’s build-up matches the numbers of Russia and the US – they would not join the talks.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Return of Nuclear Escalation

Nuclear weapons once again loom large in international politics, and a dangerous pattern is emerging. In the regions most likely to draw the United States into conflict—the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, eastern Europe, and the Persian Gulf—U.S. adversaries appear to be acquiring, enhancing, or threatening to use nuclear weapons. North Korea is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States; China is doubling the size of its arsenal; Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine; and according to U.S. officials, Iran has amassed enough fissile material for a bomb. Many people hoped that once the Cold War ended, nuclear weapons would recede into irrelevance.…  Seguir leyendo »

A mushroom cloud is seen during a French nuclear test in French Polynesia in 1970. (AFP/Getty Images)

Sixty years ago, the Limited Test Ban Treaty halted the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. It was heralded as a great step forward. But in the long run, it has had a perverse effect.

It has led to our massive modern stockpile of nuclear weapons and the belief that these weapons are meant to be used to fight a war — not, as originally intended, to end one.

Worse, it has created a dangerous amnesia. People have forgotten how much destruction a single nuclear weapon can cause. They have lost their sense of horror.

That Russian President Vladimir Putin openly talks of using a tactical nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine, and of revoking the test ban treaty, should be terrifying.…  Seguir leyendo »

Preparación del «Gadget» para la prueba «Trinity», julio de 1945, Cortesía del US Department of Energy, vía Wikimedia Commons.

Edward Teller (1908-2003), un talentoso y controvertido físico nacido en Budapest y conocido por ser el «padre de la bomba de hidrógeno», fue reclutado por el neoyorquino J. Robert Oppenheimer (1904-1967), físico, polímata y políglota, para el Proyecto Manhattan (PM), que comenzó a funcionar en 1943 ―durante la II Guerra Mundial― en el complejo científico-técnico ultrasecreto que se estaba construyendo en Los Álamos (Nuevo México, EEUU), hoy conocido como Los Álamos National Laboratory (LANL). Entonces, era un sitio en el que se dormía poco porque había que fabricar un arma nuclear antes de que lo consiguieran los científicos que trabajaban a las órdenes de los nazis (quizá pueda achacarse al insomnio el nacimiento de 80 niños en el primer año del proyecto).…  Seguir leyendo »

Posing with nuclear missiles in Beijing, October 2022. Florence Lo / Reuters

In a speech this June, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan drew attention to China’s nuclear buildup, Russia’s development of new nuclear capabilities, and the United States’ planned response. His remarks signaled the Biden administration’s assessment that nuclear risks are growing, particularly in the wake of Russia’s suspension of New START, the last U.S.-Russian treaty governing the two states’ nuclear arms, in February. What was most notable about his speech, however, was what he promised President Joe Biden would not do: launch a countervailing U.S. nuclear buildup. On this point, Sullivan was emphatic: “I want to be clear here—the United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Why a stalling NPT is a wake-up call for global security

Since 2010, there has been a glaring lack of consensus on the way forward for the NPT. Following the failure of the 2015 Review Conference, the 2022 conference ended without agreement as Russia blocked consensus on the negotiated outcome document.

While states have often been able to isolate the treaty from other political issues, this has become increasingly harder as international tensions have increased. This poses significant risks for the global non-proliferation regime with some states increasing their interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.

Nuclear crises intensifying

Since its inception in 1970, the NPT has not only established the global baseline for access to a spectrum of peaceful nuclear technologies, including radiological cancer treatments, nuclear medicine including diagnostics, agricultural applications of nuclear energy, and civil nuclear power production, while also mandating the NPT Nuclear Weapons States (UK, France, USA, Russia and China) to make progress towards disarmament.…  Seguir leyendo »

Acto de recuerdo en memoria de las víctimas de Hiroshima el pasado 6 de agosto, en el 78º aniversario del lanzamiento de la bomba atómica.Kyodo News (AP / LAPRESSE)

Oppenheimer, la película de Christopher Nolan, se ha convertido en uno de los grandes éxitos cinematográficos del momento, una buena opción para las tardes de verano. La película es larga y exhaustiva si vamos con la expectativa de conocer una historia más, sin mayores pretensiones que evadirnos de la rutina cotidiana. En cambio, nos parecerá que no sobra ni el más mínimo detalle, e incluso se nos hará corta, si nos interesa en detalle la vida de este físico, considerado el padre de la bomba atómica; el contexto y circunstancias históricas y las consecuencias y repercusiones de su trabajo. A través del proceso de descrédito mediante juicio sumarísimo, amañado y sin pruebas, al que se vio sometido Oppenheimer, y que desembocó en su exilio académico, por su libertad de expresión contra el poder establecido y sus simpatías con el partido comunista, se puede constatar una vez más cómo se comportan incluso los colegas más próximos ante este tipo de situaciones: reminiscencias del experimento de Milgram.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un cartel, llevado alguna vez por una víctima de la radiación por la prueba de la bomba atómica en 1945, estuvo exhibido en el Museo de Historia de Nuevo México, en Santa Fe, en 2019. El letrero dice en inglés que le dio cáncer por las consecuencias de la propagación con el viento de sustancias radiactivas después de la prueba Trinity. Robert Alexander/Getty Images

El mes de julio suele ser difícil para muchos de nosotros en Nuevo México, donde la vida de miles de personas se alteró debido a la prueba de la primera bomba nuclear del mundo. Los acontecimientos del 16 de julio de 1945 todavía tienen un gran peso sobre nosotros. ¿Y cómo no iba a ser así? Lo cambiaron todo. Los residentes de Nuevo México fueron los primeros sujetos humanos de prueba del arma más poderosa del planeta.

Este julio se sintió más tenso que de costumbre, ya que nuestra comunidad esperaba el estreno de la película Oppenheimer y, con él, algún reconocimiento de lo que ha sufrido en los últimos 78 años.…  Seguir leyendo »

A new Iran nuclear deal might be on the horizon

Is the Biden administration’s strategy on Iran’s nuclear ambitions drifting dangerously from prevention to containment?

Reports are cropping up that the administration and the Iranians are discussing new agreements that would, in theory, seek to limit the Tehran’s nuclear program. While denying any deals are imminent, a senior Biden administration official acknowledged that there have been indirect talks with the Iranian government in Oman.

The Iranians are being less coy. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, formerly the head of the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament, claims that unwritten understandings have already been reached. The Biden administration “will close its eyes to some of Iran’s energy deals, and [allow] the release of some of Iran’s frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level”, he said.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to Iranian Air Force commanders in Tehran, 08 February 2007. Khamanei vowed today the Islamic republic would hit back at US interests worldwide if attacked, amid mounting tension with the West over its nuclear programme.

Rumors are abounding that after 10 months of almost no diplomatic activity, the United States and Iran are close to reaching an informal agreement that will prevent a further escalation between the two. What is on the table is not the renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement—which remains in a comatose state—but rather an unwritten understanding that neither side will pull the plug on the respirator.

Diplomacy between the United States and Iran has steadily degraded over the years. From the intense and, at times, weekslong direct negotiations that produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—a more than 100-page written agreement embodied in a unanimously approved U.N.…  Seguir leyendo »