We can all see the outlines of a post-pandemic world. With vaccinations ramping up in the United States and Britain, and with Israel and the United Arab Emirates racing toward herd immunity, it is easy to imagine that a return to normalcy is on the horizon. The only question seems to be: How long will it take?
But we might be seeing a false dawn. Despite the amazing progress we’ve made with vaccines, the truth is that our current trajectory virtually guarantees that we will never really defeat the coronavirus. It will stay alive and keep mutating and surging across the globe.… Seguir leyendo »
En 2016, yo era una de esas personas que no pensaba que Donald Trump podía ganar la presidencia de Estados Unidos. Como muchos, estudié las encuestas y creí que mostraban un cómodo margen de voto en su contra. Pensé que la gente no se dejaría engañar por él. Era un tipo demasiado raro, demasiado vulgar, completamente ignorante acerca de la mayoría de los temas políticos y patológicamente incapaz de decir la verdad, incluso sobre cosas triviales. Durante la campaña de 2016, por ejemplo, afirmó que había conocido a Vladimir Putin, algo que fue muy fácil de desmentir.
Sin embargo, creo que lo que más me convenció de que Trump iba a perder fue que creía en un Estados Unidos diferente.… Seguir leyendo »
Las pandemias deberían ser un gran ecualizador. Afectan a todos, ricos y pobres, negros y blancos, de la ciudad y el campo. Incluso el presidente de Estados Unidos contrajo el coronavirus. Sin embargo, el COVID-19 en realidad ha tenido el efecto contrario. El virus está dándole paso al mayor aumento de desigualdad económica en décadas, tanto en Estados Unidos como a nivel mundial.
A pesar de la preocupación por la desigualdad en Estados Unidos, vale la pena señalar que la desigualdad global —la brecha entre los más ricos y los más pobres de todo el mundo— había disminuido en las últimas décadas.… Seguir leyendo »
As the United States has faltered in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, many experts have warned that China is using the situation to enhance its influence across the world. This is part of a familiar pattern in which the United States has worried that its competitors or adversaries were 10 feet tall and growing. But in fact, a striking feature of the recent international landscape has been China’s strategic blunders.
The most significant example is China’s recent incursion into India, in the Galwan Valley, long under dispute by the two countries. For reasons that are not entirely clear, Chinese forces have reportedly taken about 23 square miles of arid land, sparking a deadly skirmish.… Seguir leyendo »
In much of the developed world, the coronavirus curve is slowly flattening, but this obscures a tragic reality — the second phase of the crisis has begun as the novel virus spreads to the developing world. Ten of the top 12 countries with the largest number of new confirmed infections are now from the ranks of emerging economies, led by Brazil, Russia, India, Peru and Chile. The resulting devastation would likely reverse years, if not decades, of economic progress.
For a while, it appeared that the developing world was being spared the worst of the pandemic. As of April 30, with 84 percent of the world’s population, low-income and middle-income countries were home to just 14 percent of the world’s known covid-19 deaths, according to a Brookings Institution report.… Seguir leyendo »
Even as we are just beginning to confront the magnitude of the shock caused by the covid-19 pandemic, we need to wrap our minds around a painful truth. We are in the early stages of what is going to become a series of cascading crises, reverberating throughout the world. And we will not be able to get back to anything resembling normal life unless the major powers can find some way to cooperate and manage these problems together.
The first phase has been the health-care crisis in the world’s major economies. The next phase is the economic paralysis, the magnitude of which we are only just beginning to comprehend.… Seguir leyendo »
One of the great strengths of democracy is that bad policies are often reversed. That’s a consolation when we look at the flurry of pandering programs being enacted as the populist wave works its way through the Western world. When a new government is elected, things can be undone. Except for Brexit, which, if it goes through, might prove to be the most profound legacy of this decade.
Britain, famous for its prudence, propriety and punctuality, is suddenly looking like a banana republic as it makes reckless decisions, misrepresents reality and now wants to change its own self-imposed deadline. But if it does leave the European Union, it would be bad news for Britain, Europe and the West.… Seguir leyendo »
The most enlightening commentary on what is going on in Iran right now was written 162 years ago. In his book on the French Revolution, Alexis de Tocqueville said: “Revolutions are not always brought about by a gradual decline from bad to worse. Nations that have endured patiently and almost unconsciously the most overwhelming oppression, often burst into rebellion against the yoke the moment it begins to grow lighter. The regime which is destroyed by a revolution is almost always an improvement on its immediate predecessor, and experience teaches that the most critical moment for bad governments is the one which witnesses their first steps toward reform.”… Seguir leyendo »
CNN Opinion asked a range of contributors for their take on last week's attacks in Paris and how the war on ISIS must change if the U.S. and its allies want to defeat it. The opinions expressed in these commentaries are solely those of the authors.
Fareed Zakaria: What does ISIS want?
The barbarism of the attacks in Paris mark a new low in terror. The attacks were not directed against national symbols or government targets, but designed simply to kill innocent men, women and children. The murderers did not even bother to issue demands.
French President Francois Hollande has called Friday's attacks an act of war.… Seguir leyendo »
CNN Opinion asked a range of contributors to assess the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to Congress. The opinions expressed in these commentaries are theirs.
Obama administration fumbled
The Obama administration effectively has had a six-week public tantrum as it tried to stop Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from addressing a joint meeting of Congress. Now we know why. Netanyahu destroyed the administration's argument in favor of signing a nuclear deal with Iran.
We've continuously heard from the Obama administration that no deal is better than a bad deal. Anyone watching Netanyahu's speech with even the slightest objectivity was, at the very least, left questioning whether this is that bad deal.… Seguir leyendo »
In opposing President Barack Obama's opening to Cuba, Florida's Republican senator, Marco Rubio, explained, "This entire policy shift announced today is based on an illusion, on a lie, the lie and the illusion that more commerce and access to money and goods will translate to political freedom for the Cuban people." Rubio has correctly touched on the core issue. But theory, logic and history suggest that he's wrong in his conclusions.
I would recommend to Rubio one of the classics of conservative thought, Milton Friedman's "Capitalism and Freedom." He doesn't have to spend too much time on it. The first chapter outlines the "relation between economic freedom and political freedom."… Seguir leyendo »
Is the world spinning out of control?
I get asked this question a lot these days, and for understandable reasons. Look at what's been in the news in just the last few weeks. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's execution videos, Scotland's bid for secession, Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
There is an unraveling taking place in parts of the world. In the Middle East, the old order that stretched from Libya to Syria has collapsed. In Russia, the rise of oil prices has empowered and emboldened President Vladimir Putin -- and he wants a makeover on the fall of the Soviet Union.… Seguir leyendo »
I'm sure you've heard the news. The cold war is back. Or history has returned. Or we're now in the 19th century world of great power politics. Russia's attack on Georgia has unleashed a barrage of cliches. Globalisation and integration have been exposed as shams. Our naive idea that we were living in a benign international environment has been shattered.
Most of this commentary is a massive overreaction. Who in the past few decades believed that international life has been problem-free? John McCain ominously intoned that the Russian attack was the "first serious crisis since the end of the cold war".… Seguir leyendo »