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L’été s’annonce orageux en mer de Chine méridionale. Cet espace hautement stratégique, par lequel transite près de la moitié du trafic maritime mondial, est âprement disputé depuis quelques années. Pas moins de six États - Chine, Vietnam, Malaisie, Brunei, Philippines, Taïwan - revendiquent des droits souverains sur son sol, sous-sol et ses eaux surjacentes. Leurs prétentions sont principalement fondées sur la Convention des Nations Unies sur le droit de la mer de 1982 (CNUDM), aujourd’hui ratifiée par 167 États, dont ceux en litige, sauf Taïwan. La Chine considère toutefois que des titres historiques séculaires lui permettraient d’étendre ses droits bien au-delà des 200 milles marins (370,4 km) prévus par la convention.…  Seguir leyendo »

A vendor in Beijing stands behind a map including an insert depicting the 'nine-dash line' in the South China Sea. Photo by Getty Images.

It is tempting to read China's refusal in this case to acknowledge the jurisdiction of the arbitral tribunal in The Hague as the defiance of an arrogant superpower that views itself as above international law. No doubt many in Manila, Washington and elsewhere are purveying this view. But there is more here than meets the eye.

For decades, Beijing has complained that the global order was forged in an era when China was weak and the rules of the game are rigged against it.

But this lament is more difficult to sustain in relation to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which China helped negotiate in the 1970s and early 1980s.…  Seguir leyendo »

A new maritime balance in Indo-Pacific region

Recently it was reported in sections of the media that the United States and India have held talks about conducting joint naval patrols that could possibly include the disputed South China Sea.

The U.S. and Indian government officials were quick to dismiss the report. Washington suggested that while the U.S. and India have a shared vision of peace, stability and prosperity in Asia, the two countries were not planning joint maritime patrols in the Indian Ocean or South China Sea. New Delhi also argued that there was no change in India’s policy of joining international military efforts only under the U.N.…  Seguir leyendo »

Amid mounting regional concerns about Beijing’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea, President Xi Jinping stood with President Barack Obama last September in the White House Rose Garden and vowed that China would not militarize its newly constructed outposts in the Spratly Islands. But Xi was careful not to include Beijing’s Paracel Islands, in the north of the South China Sea.

China has now reportedly placed surface-to-air missiles on one of its Paracel outposts. While this act does not strictly contradict Xi’s commitment, it clearly violates its spirit.

Such actions are a big reason why the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly focused on the South China Sea.…  Seguir leyendo »

Fiery Cross Reef after the Chinese arrived.

There is always a time when the intentions of an individual or that of a nation shift from the hidden to uncloaked. That is the point where the wise prepare for action. We have for over a decade warned of the rise of China and that its challenge to the world would ultimately not be a peaceful one, as so vehemently claimed by President Xi. Consequently, we have been following the construction of islands in the Spratly chain, based on the partially submerged reefs that lay below the high tide mark, all of which under UNCLOS (The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) were considered not to be sovereign territory.…  Seguir leyendo »

China’s Dangerous Ambiguity in the South China Sea

In October, Maj. Gen. Yao Yunzhu of the Academy of Military Science in Beijing asked in a speech at the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military’s annual dialogue with other states: What does militarization mean? She was responding to American concerns that China’s efforts to build up islands in the South China Sea contribute to international tensions.

General Yao poses a fair question. Why is China singled out as the culprit when the United States is the dominant military power in Asian waters? The United States maintains a naval presence in the Asia-Pacific that entails military cooperation with numerous regional powers, including other claimants to disputed territory and maritime zones, such as the Philippines and Vietnam.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Navy sailors on the deck of the guided missile destroyer Lassen in the South China Sea on Oct. 28. Corey T. Jones/U.S. Navy

The dangerous game of chicken now being played out in the South China Sea, with American warships sailing provocatively close to a clutch of new-made Chinese islands, is only the beginning of what looks to be a lengthy and epic tussle.

That’s because a detailed plan, hatched in Beijing decades ago, is currently being unrolled, with the aim of demonstrating that the Pacific Ocean is no longer an immense American-dominated lake, but an ocean belonging to the world, with no navy or nation wielding a monopoly of power across its waters. How the United States deals with China’s latest moves will determine to no small degree the future serenity of the planet.…  Seguir leyendo »

China's government isn't happy.

In a statement issued Tuesday, the country's Foreign Ministry warned that U.S. actions had "threatened China's sovereignty and security interest, and has put the safety of personnel" in danger.

The statement was issued in response to the U.S. decision to dispatch the guided missile destroyer USS Lassen for several hours on a "freedom of navigation" operation near the disputed waters of Subi Reef, which has drawn international attention since China began constructing an artificial island there.

But although the Lassen was deliberately sent to within 12 nautical miles of the feature (12 miles being the hypothetical width of territorial sea around Subi), and despite China warning against the use of "gimmicks," the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

A floating dock of the Indian navy is pictured at the naval base at Port Blair in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India, July 1, 2015. REUTERS/Sanjeev Miglani

The Indian Ocean may be the only ocean named for a country, but it’ s still heavily contested territory. Both China and India, who have major strategic interests there, are suspicious of each other. Their struggle for leadership in the “emerging world” will play out for decades and all around the globe, but today the Indian Ocean is Ground Zero.

The South China Sea is home to overlapping claims by China, the Philippines, and other countries in the region. And the Arctic Ocean, increasingly, has seen a build-up of U.S. and Russian troops, lured by the possibility of billions of barrels of untapped oil.…  Seguir leyendo »

Desde diciembre de 2013, China ha añadido más de 1,200 hectáreas a islas en el Mar Meridional de China. Las implicaciones geopolíticas de estos esfuerzos de reclamación de tierras están bien documentados: la mayor parte de dicha actividad se llevó a cabo en las Islas Spratly, un archipiélago en las aguas entre Vietnam, Malasia y Filipinas, países que junto con China, Taiwán y Brunei tienen reclamaciones contrapuestas  sobre esta región.

Existe menos debate sobre el impacto ambiental del proyecto, mismo que bordea lo catastrófico. Las actividades de China ponen en peligro a poblaciones de peces, amenazan la biodiversidad marina y crean un riesgo a largo plazo para algunas de las formas de vida marina más espectaculares del mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »

While the increasing militarization of the South China Sea strains Asia-Pacific’s stability and security for the long term, the region’s humble fishing fleets pose more immediate, frequent, and less managed risks. If properly organized, however, those same fleets could offer one way to develop a culture of compromise and cooperation.

After running a controversial program of land reclamation in the South China Sea, China has recently started to build facilities on its artificial island outposts. Unsurprisingly, neighboring countries remain anxious about Beijing’s ultimate intentions, fearful especially of military threats.

But the more urgent concern – to China as much as to its Southeast Asian neighbors –  is the likely emergence of even bolder maritime law enforcement and fishing fleets.…  Seguir leyendo »

What are Chinese attack submarines doing in the Indian Ocean, far from China’s maritime backyard, in what is the furthest deployment of the Chinese Navy in 600 years? Two Chinese subs docked last fall at the new Chinese-built and -owned container terminal in Colombo, Sri Lanka. And recently a Chinese Yuan-class sub showed up at the Pakistani port city of Karachi.

The assertive way China has gone about staking its territorial claims in the South and East China seas has obscured its growing interest in the Indian Ocean. This ocean has become the new global center of trade and energy flows, accounting for half the world’s container traffic and 70 percent of its petroleum shipments.…  Seguir leyendo »

China me inquieta

En un famoso diálogo de En busca del tiempo perdido, una mujer mundana le pregunta a un diplomático caricaturesco qué hay que pensar de China. Con un tono convencido y enigmático, el personaje creado por Marcel Proust contesta: «China me inquieta». Este sainete escrito hace un siglo me vino a la mente esta semana tras un periplo por Asia, Seúl y Tokio concretamente. China inquieta a sus vecinos, y con toda la razón, no por alguna singularidad cultural china, sino por la opacidad del régimen de Pekín. La causa inmediata de esta inquietud es la construcción por parte de los dirigentes chinos de islotes artificiales en el archipiélago de las Paracelso, un extenso territorio marítimo que se disputan China, Taiwan, Vietnam y Filipinas.…  Seguir leyendo »

An aerial photo taken though a glass window of a Philippine military plane shows the alleged on-going land reclamation by China on mischief reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, west of Palawan, Philippines, May 11, 2015. REUTERS/Ritchie B. Tongo/Pool

1. Whose South China Sea is it, anyway?

China’s claim to the South China Sea is based in history, dating back to records from the Xia and Han dynasties. China delineates its claims via the nine-dash line, which Chiang Kai Shek advanced in 1947. During China’s republican era, China surveyed, mapped and named 291 islands and reefs in the region.

The United States contends that the South China Sea is international water, and sovereignty in the area should be determined by the United Nations Convention on Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS states that countries can’t claim sovereignty over any land masses that are submerged at high tide, or that were previously submerged but have been raised above high tide level by construction.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cuando una aeronave estadounidense de reconocimiento, P8-A, volaba recientemente cerca del Arrecife Fiery Cross en las Islas Spratly en el Mar de China Meridional, la armada china le instó ocho ocasiones a irse del área. El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de China, Wang Yi, señaló que “la determinación de China de salvaguardar la soberanía e integridad de su territorio es firme como una roca.” El Secretario de Defensa estadounidense, Ashton Carter, respondió que “[N]o debe haber duda sobre esto: los Estados Unidos seguiremos haciendo actividades por aire, mar u otros medios que las leyes internacionales nos permitan como hacemos en otros lugares del mundo”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Last week, a CNN crew flying onboard a US Navy patrol plane above the South China Sea recorded China’s military ordering the navy jet to exit a “military alert zone,” shedding light on Beijing’s ongoing attempts to exert administrative control over international airspace and waters. Just two weeks earlier, Philippine’s Defense Secretary publicly expressed concern that Beijing was taking steps to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the contested South China Sea. Chinese officials haven’t ruled out the possibility of establishing a new zone, and new military facilities in the South China Sea could streamline Beijing’s ADIZ enforcement efforts.…  Seguir leyendo »

A team of Philippine Navy personnel and three congressmen from the House committee on inter-parliamentary relations and diplomacy lands at the tiny rock of Scarborough Shoal bearing the Philippine flag that was earlier planted by Filipino fishermen. (JESS YUSON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

In just a few months, Beijing has transformed a number of tiny reefs and rocks in the South China Sea into six small military bases, intimidating smaller countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam and fortifying an area through which a third of the world’s commercial container ships transit.

The bases are the latest in a series of provocative moves by China, which has asserted that the area is its sovereign territory. In 2012, Chinese maritime forces ejected the Philippines from Scarborough Shoal to the north of the new Spratly Islands outposts; that same year, Beijing declared that the area was under its new “Nansha” administrative region; and last spring Chinese patrol ships escorted a huge mobile oil rig into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.…  Seguir leyendo »

Détente for China and Japan

That empty expression President Xi Jinping of China made when he shook hands with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan was his blandest face of the entire APEC summit last month. It was their first meeting, and it lasted only 25 minutes.

And yet it was a turning point in relations between China and Japan, especially after renewed tensions over the East China Sea islands that both states claim as their own — known as the Senkaku in Japanese, and the Diaoyu in Chinese. In fact, the Chinese government had expressed such an outcry over that disagreement in recent months that it would need quite a good excuse to justify to the Chinese public having any direct contact with Japan’s prime minister.…  Seguir leyendo »

New missile-interceptor capability can protect the U.S. Navy from China’s Pacific threats.

With the world’s attention focused on the atrocities being committed by the evil Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, plus Russia’s de facto invasion of eastern Ukraine, China has continued its bullying tactics in pressing its illegal claims in both the South and East China Seas.

China is mounting a direct attack on the “freedom of the seas” concept, which has been the cornerstone of our maritime strategy for more than 238 years. With almost 90 percent of the world’s commerce traveling by sea, the exercise of the “freedom of the seas” concept is critical to the world’s economy, particularly ours.…  Seguir leyendo »

La tercera guerra

Nuestro mapamundi, viejo al menos de 70 años, ha sufrido en poco tiempo dos severas e inesperadas desgarraduras, bien visibles en las primeras páginas de los periódicos, que presagian un geografía política llena de novedades, incluso en las fronteras y en el número de los países que la componen. Esos dos sietes que se han abierto en las costuras del mundo de ayer son la anexión de Crimea por Rusia y la más que probable e inminente partición de Irak, con la consiguiente aparición de un nuevo país independiente como Kurdistán. Ambas son facturas diferidas de la caída de dos imperios y también del precario orden creado a continuación, a partir de 1989 por iniciativa de la Unión Europea y EE UU, en el caso de los países del antiguo bloque soviético, Ucrania incluida; y de 1919 por la de Francia y Gran Bretaña, que se repartieron y trazaron las fronteras sobre los territorios del extinto imperio otomano.…  Seguir leyendo »