Armas nucleares (Continuación)

MundoAsia,

Tema: Este ARI trata de la interrupción del desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon por Corea del Norte, los desacuerdos en relación con la verificación y la evolución de la política estadounidense hacia la República Popular Democrática de Corea.

Resumen: A mediados de agosto, Corea del Norte tomó la decisión de interrumpir el desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon en respuesta a la decisión estadounidense de no retirar al país asiático de la lista de Estados que promueven el terrorismo hasta que este último consintiera en un sistema de verificación acorde a los estándares internacionales, una aceptación que no se ha producido hasta principios de octubre.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad, ,

What will be the fate of "Britain's" nuclear deterrent if Scotland becomes independent? If the result of the Glenrothes byelection on November 6 mirrors that of Glasgow East, an answer may soon be needed. This is the biggest conundrum among a series of challenges concerning Scotland's stance on defence if the country were to become an independent state - leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) as a separate independent state.

Defence is a fundamental attribute of statehood. Yet "Britain's" nuclear forces, which are supported by MPs and the general population in EWNI, are situated in Scotland. They are not supported by either the Scottish people or the Scottish parliament.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

La desesperada súplica de Israel para que el mundo impida lo que sus servicios de inteligencia denominan la "galopada hacia una bomba nuclear" de Irán no ha tenido la respuesta positiva que Israel esperaba.

Ahora que el régimen de sanciones de Naciones Unidas ha demostrado ser completamente ineficaz, y la diplomacia internacional aparentemente incapaz de impedir que los iraníes controlen la tecnología de enriquecimiento de uranio, Israel está contra las cuerdas. Lo que se suponía que debía ser un gran esfuerzo internacional de mediación está deteriorándose y convirtiéndose en un apocalíptico enfrentamiento entre Israel e Irán.

Es una anomalía interesante porque, a pesar de la vomitiva retórica antisemítica del presidente iraní, Mahmud Ahmadineyad, las repercusiones del aumento de poder de Irán van mucho más allá del Estado judío.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The coverage of the latest bombastic tour of Manhattan by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran may have obscured the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has released its latest report on Tehran’s nuclear program, and it contains some unpleasant news: By the time we inaugurate our next president, Iran is likely to achieve “virtual” nuclear weapon status. This means that it will be able to produce, within a few months of deciding to do so, enough weapon-grade uranium to fuel a bomb.

But how is that possible? After all, about the only thing the Bush administration and our European allies seem to agree on regarding Iran is that there is a lot more time for diplomacy and sanctions to work before the ayatollahs can cross the nuclear line.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

El próximo presidente de Estados Unidos debe hacer una cosa, sólo una, si aspira a que su mandato sea considerado un éxito: ha de impedir que Al Qaeda o una imitación de Al Qaeda logre hacerse con el control de un arma nuclear y la haga estallar en Estados Unidos. Todo lo demás (Fannie Mae, la reforma de la atención sanitaria, la independencia energética, el déficit presupuestario de Wasilla, Alaska) es accesorio. La destrucción del Bajo Manhattan o del centro de Washington causaría muertos por millares o por centenares de miles, una crisis económica catastrófica, una marcha atrás en la globalización, un ambiente permanente de miedo en Occidente y la negación total de la cultura norteamericana de derechos y libertades.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

The next president must do one thing, and one thing only, if he is to be judged a success: He must prevent Al Qaeda, or a Qaeda imitator, from gaining control of a nuclear device and detonating it in America. Everything else — Fannie Mae, health care reform, energy independence, the budget shortfall in Wasilla, Alaska — is commentary. The nuclear destruction of Lower Manhattan, or downtown Washington, would cause the deaths of thousands, or hundreds of thousands; a catastrophic depression; the reversal of globalization; a permanent climate of fear in the West; and the comprehensive repudiation of America’s culture of civil liberties.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

It would be impossible and foolish to predict what lies immediately ahead for Iran. Inflation runs rampant and domestic unrest is growing, but the leadership is banding together in support of the country's nuclear program. Threat assessment and war planning are (or should be) about best-guessing capabilities and intentions. When it comes to Iran, these calculations are difficult, but there are things we can -- and must -- figure out. Given what we know and what we can best-guess, it looks as if Iran is 80 percent of the way to a functioning nuclear weapon.

Every nuclear program needs raw materials, a way to refine them and, in the final stage, weaponization.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

No sane person wants to see more nuclear weapons in the world. They cause horrible destruction. The world needs to find a way to reduce the reliance on these weapons by existing nuclear states, be it by Britain and the United States or by Israel and India. Recent columns in these pages by George Monbiot and John Pilger acknowledged this, but dangerously underplayed the gravest threat to the global effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons: Iran.

We equally need to press Tehran about its nuclear programme, and challenge its disdain for international inspections and for the United Nations. Pilger suggests that concerns about the programme are largely a matter of "disinformation ...…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoAsia, , ,

When I first went to Hiroshima in 1967, the shadow on the steps was still there. It was an almost perfect impression of a human being at ease: legs splayed, back bent, one hand by her side as she sat waiting for a bank to open. At a quarter past eight on the morning of August 6, 1945, she and her silhouette were burned into the granite. I stared at the shadow for an hour or more, then walked down to the river and met a man called Yukio, whose chest was still etched with the pattern of the shirt he was wearing when the atomic bomb was dropped.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The favoured season for launching wars used to come when the harvest had been gathered. This year, there is talk of an Israeli strike against Iran in November or December, when it would no longer embarrass the US election process but George Bush will still be in the White House during the presidential transition.

Last year, following a US intelligence submission which stated that Iran was not actively pursuing the creation of atomic weapons, a direct American attack on the country's nuclear facilities became implausible - and remains so. But Jerusalem and Washington are talking seriously about a possible Israeli strike, for which American collusion would be indispensable.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

What is the Iranian government up to? For once the imperial coalition, overstretched in Iraq and unpopular at home, is proposing jaw, not war. The UN security council's offer was a good one: if Iran suspended its uranium enrichment programme, it would be entitled to legally guaranteed supplies of fuel for nuclear power, assistance in building a light water reactor, foreign aid, technology transfer and the beginning of the end of economic sanctions. The US seems prepared, for the first time since the revolution, to open a diplomatic office in Tehran. But in Geneva, 10 days ago, the Iranians filibustered until the negotiations ended.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

It is in the interest of neither Iran nor the United States (nor, for that matter, the rest of the world) that Iran be savaged by a nuclear strike, or that both Israel and Iran suffer such a fate.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoAsiaMundoOriente Próximo, , ,

The Bush administration is to be commended for completing a deal with North Korea that persuaded the reclusive regime to disclose details of its nuclear power and nuclear weapons capabilities. But, had George Bush been willing to negotiate six years earlier, the US and its partners would have got a better deal and the world would be more secure.

In the summer of 2002, long before Pyongyang had the bargaining chip of having tested a nuclear device, the Bush administration had an opportunity to strike a deal. At that time the North Koreans took a series of steps that signalled a strong willingness to forgo their nuclear programme.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

Less than a month ago, unnamed U.S. officials hit the front page of the Financial Times by indicating that the U.S.-India nuclear pact was "almost certainly dead." This past weekend the corpse suddenly twitched back to life, thanks to sharp political maneuvering by India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and his Congress Party. Now, the deal will almost certainly be signed by India's government -- putting the onus back on the United States to get it implemented.

For that to happen, Congress must stop trying to use the deal as leverage to force India to back the U.S. line on Iran. And the Bush administration, as well as Sens.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Current U.S. policy toward the regime in Tehran will almost certainly result in an Iran with nuclear weapons. The seemingly clever combination of the use of "sticks" and "carrots," including the frequent official hints of an American military option "remaining on the table," simply intensifies Iran's desire to have its own nuclear arsenal. Alas, such a heavy-handed "sticks" and "carrots" policy may work with donkeys but not with serious countries. The United States would have a better chance of success if the White House abandoned its threats of military action and its calls for regime change.

Consider countries that could have quickly become nuclear weapon states had they been treated similarly.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

En mis tres anteriores artículos sobre el tema me he referido a los pasos dados en dirección a una guerra contra Irán, las consecuencias probables de una guerra de esta naturaleza y el programa de quienes la promueven. En este último analizaré cómo los riesgos inherentes a esta crisis podrían transmutarse en instrumentos para alcanzar un planeta más seguro.

La guerra, cuando llega, no se presenta únicamente adrede, a propósito. Durante los largos años de la guerra fría, buena parte de nosotros se interrogó con preocupación sobre el peligro de un eventual conflicto, y el peligro en cuestión se vio efectivamente ilustrado por decenas de incidentes; si algunos pudieron sortearse, se debió más a la fortuna que a la inteligencia.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As President Bush addressed the Israeli parliament last week, denouncing negotiations with recalcitrant regimes as the "false comfort of appeasement," his diplomats, in conjunction with their European counterparts, offered Iran another incentive package to stop enriching uranium. Even though they are making another effort to disarm Iran through mediation, the administration's approach is hopelessly defective. Beyond insisting on onerous conditions that are unlikely to be met by any Iranian government, the United States and its allies still hope that Tehran will trade its enrichment rights for inducements. If Washington is going to mitigate the Iranian nuclear danger, it must discard the formula of exchanging commercial contracts for nuclear rights and seek more imaginative solutions.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

The Bush administration's North Korea strategy is being criticized from the right and the left for letting Pyongyang off the hook. Some advocate scuttling the six-party talks. Others suggest slowing our own compliance with the agreement to get North Korea to make a full declaration of its nuclear program first. We disagree with both positions. Our mantra should be: It's the plutonium, stupid.

North Korea does have the bomb -- but a limited nuclear arsenal and supply of plutonium to fuel its weapons. The Yongbyon plutonium production facilities are closed and partially disabled.

In separate visits to North Korea in February, we concluded that the disablement was extensive and thorough.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

The appearance of nuclear weapons materials on the black market is a growing global concern, and it is crucial that the United States reinforce its team of nuclear forensics experts and modernize its forensics tools to prepare for or respond to a possible nuclear terrorist attack.

Large quantities of nuclear materials are inadequately secured in several countries, including Russia and Pakistan. Since 1993, there have been more than 1,300 incidents of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials, including plutonium and highly enriched uranium, both of which can be used to develop an atomic bomb. And these are only the incidents we know about.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial,

With a stridency reminiscent of the Cold War, outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin charged last month that with U.S. plans for a limited defense against ballistic missiles, "a new arms race has been unleashed in the world." He vowed to field new weapons, which have been under development for years, "in response." The same day, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he anticipated "hundreds of thousands of missile interceptors all over the world . . . in the foreseeable future."

Both claims are wrong. Despite a near universal belief to the contrary, the "action-reaction-upward-spiraling strategic weapons race" of the Cold War never really happened.…  Seguir leyendo »