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Reino Unido

Entre los británicos se da por descontado que nuestra política se ha convertido en una farsa tan inverosímil que el público la ridiculizaría por imposible si fuese un culebrón televisivo de los 70. No estoy de acuerdo, pero me he tenido que callar, porque mis amigos están todos indignados; y bien sabemos que de la indignación fertiliza la ira, como un gran indultado semental fecunda, después de una larga tarde de tienta, la bravura con una buena dosis de nobleza. Qué los debates sirvan para algo, me digo.

Hablando de toros, hace tiempo que la historia del Brexit me evoca la interminable lidia de uno de esos mansos rajados medio gachos, ya con la piel colgando de la costera por una vara horrorosamente mal colocada, por fin devuelto cojeando a los toriles después de tres avisos y media docena de descabellos de un novillero de experiencia precaria.…  Seguir leyendo » “La lidia del Brexit”

Vine a Londres por primera vez en 1967, para enseñar en el Queen Mary’s College. Me tomaba una hora en el metro llegar a la universidad, desde Earl’s Court, y otra hora regresar, de modo que empleaba esas dos horas en preparar las clases y corregir los trabajos de los alumnos. Descubrí que me gustaba enseñar, que no lo hacía mal, y que aprendía mucho leyendo, por ejemplo, a Sarmiento, cuyo ensayo sobre el gaucho Quiroga pasó a ser desde entonces uno de mis libros de cabecera.

El Londres de aquellos días era muy diferente de París, donde había vivido los siete años anteriores.…  Seguir leyendo » “Ciudad inmensa y triste”

One of the great strengths of democracy is that bad policies are often reversed. That’s a consolation when we look at the flurry of pandering programs being enacted as the populist wave works its way through the Western world. When a new government is elected, things can be undone. Except for Brexit, which, if it goes through, might prove to be the most profound legacy of this decade.

Britain, famous for its prudence, propriety and punctuality, is suddenly looking like a banana republic as it makes reckless decisions, misrepresents reality and now wants to change its own self-imposed deadline. But if it does leave the European Union, it would be bad news for Britain, Europe and the West.…  Seguir leyendo » “Brexit will mark the end of Britain’s role as a great power”

El empuje de los partidarios de un segundo referéndum sobre el Brexit en las últimas semanas ha llevado a muchos, dentro y fuera del Reino Unido, a creer que la salida era reversible, que el mantra del voto popular todavía lo podría evitar. Otros siguen pensando que la maraña legislativa, burocrática y política es tan sumamente tupida que nunca se podrá deshacer —y los hechos parecerían darles la razón— y que, por tanto, el Brexit, de facto, no podrá producirse.

En Bruselas, sin embargo, el sentimiento generalizado es de puro hartazgo y ya no se molestan ni en disimular. Las instituciones quieren que los británicos firmen de una (maldita) vez el famoso acuerdo —que, como han repetido hasta la saciedad, no están dispuestos a modificar— y se vayan.…  Seguir leyendo » “Dejad que se vayan”

El Parlamento británico ha decidido rechazar la ratificación del Acuerdo de Retirada alcanzado entre los jefes de Estado y de Gobierno de la Unión Europea y el Gobierno de Reino Unido. Lo ha hecho a pesar de las garantías suplementarias que, con gran esfuerzo, se habían ofrecido por parte de la Unión. Esta decisión, que lamento profundamente, supone prolongar el contexto de incertidumbre a poco más de dos semanas de la fecha en que teóricamente debería materializarse el Brexit. Hay muchas lecciones que podemos extraer de un proceso que mantiene al pueblo británico en un auténtico callejón sin salida.

Es imposible entender el Brexit sin tener en cuenta la conjunción de tres factores.…  Seguir leyendo » “Preparados ante el Brexit”

In Madrid last week, a senior politician told me that he was watching the Brexit crisis with growing astonishment. “England, the mother of parliaments,” he said, shaking his head. “We’ve looked up to them for so long.” Meanwhile an Italian friend who arrived in London on a delayed train — French customs officers are having a pre-Brexit strike at the Gare du Nord in Paris, delaying London-bound trains and demanding extra compensation — was also amazed. “We think our democracies are weak, elsewhere in Europe. But even if you took a bunch of Italians, Poles and Hungarians, kept them up all night and got them drunk, they still wouldn’t come up with anything as disastrous as what we are seeing in the House of Commons.”

Another week, another history-making vote: On Tuesday, the British Parliament rejected, again, Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, an arrangement that would have given Britain a reasonably smooth transition period out of the European Union.…  Seguir leyendo » “Brexit has devastated Britain’s international reputation — and respect for its democracy”

What happens when “historic” defeats become commonplace?

Yet again, Prime Minister Theresa May has dragged her Brexit plan in front of the House of Commons. Yet again, she has been “historically” defeated: 242 votes for it, 391 against.

When it comes to Brexit, the only issue that has occupied her since she took office in July 2016, Mrs. May is completely and utterly powerless. And yet her most dangerous enemy is not an obstinate European Union or even the opposition Labour Party but the fanatical right wing of her own Conservative Party. Her most vicious detractors sit behind her during votes in Parliament and then tour television and radio studios merrily denouncing her the rest of the time.…  Seguir leyendo » “How Many Defeats Can Britain Take?”

Brexit and the second referendum

This week, the British Parliament is due to hold a series of votes on Brexit — but few expect progress toward agreement. Britain is due to exit the European Union at the end of the month, but there is no sign of an agreement that could pass through Parliament before the deadline. This means politicians on all sides of the debate have been looking for a way to avoid the looming “hard exit,” including the possibility of another referendum.

The proposal for a second referendum became significantly more realistic when the Labour Party backed it in late February.…  Seguir leyendo » “Could there be a second Brexit referendum?”

As the deadline of March 29 approaches when the UK is supposed to leave the European Union, the nightmare of Brexit is reaching a climax. Yet the dreadful truth dawning in London, Brussels and across the EU is that the painful process will probably drag on for many months, if not years, beyond the cut-off date.

This week Theresa May, UK prime minister, will ask her parliament to choose between three options. First, she desperately hopes to win approval for the withdrawal agreement she has negotiated with her 27 partners in the EU. It will be a small miracle if she succeeds.…  Seguir leyendo » “Whither Brexit?”

Elements of the 2016 British referendum campaign have long seemed familiar to Americans. There was a close, controversial election, full of rancor and anger. There were a lot of wealthy men talking about “the people” and their “will.” There were targeted advertising campaigns, stolen data and fake social media accounts. But now, with only a few days left until Britain is due to face the consequences of that vote, the Brexit story suddenly looks even more familiar: One of its protagonists turns out to have much deeper Russian business connections than previously suspected. He also tried to conceal them.

The protagonist in question is Arron Banks, the most important funder of both the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party (UKIP) and Leave.EU, one of several organizations that campaigned to get Britain out of the European Union.…  Seguir leyendo » “The more we learn about Brexit, the more crooked it looks”

The EU’s straits have grown more dire, as polling shows Euroskeptic, far-right populist parties chalking up heady gains in the European Parliament elections, which take place in May.

The hard right’s numbers won’t be nearly enough to command the Brussels-based locus of European democracy, but its combined forces could throw another spanner into the Union’s already challenged machinery.

Thus, all the more urgent is the EU’s contorted mission to win back the trust of its citizens.

Obviously, its original narrative, one that powered it through the postwar decades — namely of peace through cooperation and economic integration on a united continent — no longer resonates with many Europeans, particularly the young.…  Seguir leyendo » “Europe’s future looks bleak if it can’t make the case for itself”

Tema

¿Cuáles son las perspectivas para la relación entre España y Gibraltar tras el Brexit?

Resumen: Dada la probable salida del Reino Unido de la UE, se presentan una serie de circunstancias en relación con Gibraltar que España debería considerar a fin de posicionarse para negociar en el futuro, cuando el territorio deje de tener el paraguas de la UE. A las cuestiones de la soberanía, la ocupación de parte del istmo y las aguas territoriales deberán añadirse los problemas relativos al contrabando, el fraude y la elusión fiscal, y la protección medioambiental.

Análisis Introducción

Gibraltar entró en la UE el 1 de enero de 1973 en virtud del Acta de Adhesión del Reino Unido a las Comunidades Europeas de 1972 en aplicación del art.

…  Seguir leyendo » “El Brexit, Gibraltar y España”

El presidente del Consejo Europeo, Donald Tusk, recientemente generó una polémica al decir que hay “un lugar especial en el infierno” para quienes defendieron el Brexit “sin un plan”. Para los defensores furiosos del Brexit, la declaración epitomiza la actitud insensible y moralista de la tecnocracia de la Unión Europea en Bruselas. La primera ministra británica, Theresa May, emitió oportunamente un comunicado reprendiendo a Tusk por su comentario.

Pero la respuesta de May poco importa. Ella ya ha extendido su plazo límite para llevar a cabo un “voto significativo” sobre un acuerdo de salida de la UE, confirmando efectivamente que seguirá sin tener un plan hasta último momento.…  Seguir leyendo » “El Brexit es el infierno”

Is There an Upside to Brexit

No one knows yet what, if anything, will happen on March 29 — B-Day, the day when Britain is to leave the European Union. It could be a nonevent; it could be a disaster. Likely, it will be somewhere in between. But while the world fixates on the negatives — and there are many — of Brexit, it does have its upsides.

The European Union’s most globally minded member is leaving, forcing the bloc to rethink its mission and vision at just the right time. And a large part of that rethinking will now involve a plan for how London and Brussels will work together over the long run.…  Seguir leyendo » “Is There an Upside to Brexit?”

Everything you need to know about the British Labour Party is contained in the fact that Luciana Berger is no longer a member and Alex Scott-Samuel is.

Two weeks ago Berger, a member of parliament, shocked the nation when she announced her departure from the country’s official opposition. The great niece of a postwar-era Labour government minister, Berger joined the party at age 15 and was parliamentary chair of the Jewish Labour Movement. Standing at a lectern with several other former Labour MPs, she announced the formation of a new caucus called the Independent Group, established for those disaffected with the growing extremism of the country’s two major political parties.…  Seguir leyendo » “Jeremy Corbyn is thoroughly indecent”

Political history is full of surprises and we may be on the brink of another. It may be that all the effort required to understand Labour’s stance on a second referendum, the blizzard of parliamentary amendments and the varied proposals for Brexit delay are all beside the point. The point is now on the horizon and, if you squint a little, you can glimpse the distant sign of a deal passing. Not many in the political class are ready for the surprise that may be with them before long.

Brexit is the subject that it is impossible to keep in proportion.…  Seguir leyendo » “May could claim unlikely triumph on March 12”

«Si los estadounidenses pretenden entender el Brexit, verdaderamente Gran Bretaña tiene un problema grave». Las recientes palabras de la periodista británica del Guardian Arwah Mahdawi, residente en Nueva York, muestran un importante cambio en las percepciones mutuas. En cuanto perciben su acento británico, utilizado en Estados Unidos en películas o teleseries para subrayar la maldad de personajes siniestros y retorcidos, se ve obligada a explicar que en Londres todavía tienen algo parecido a un Gobierno y la isla continúa -por ahora- a flote. La salida de Gran Bretaña de la Unión Europea se ha convertido en asunto de moda y, dentro del desconocimiento del estadounidense medio respecto a lo que ocurre fuera de sus fronteras, suscita interés.…  Seguir leyendo » “La crisis de la Anglosfera”

Efectos económicos del Brexit en el Campo de Gibraltar: un modelo econométricoARI 25/2019-26 de febrero de 20196hogares del Campo se ha utilizado como variable de control para mejorar la calidad de los resultados, pero no forma parte del análisis en las predicciones.En la predicción consideramos que los datos obtenidos para la construcción del modelo son representativos delaño2018 y que permitenpredecir los valores de éste en el período t+1, que tomaremos como el año 2025. Según los diferentes estudios consultados20para entonces los efectos iniciales de la incertidumbre generada por el Brexitya se habrán disipado y sólo quedarán los efectos estructurales, que son los que se desea estudiar.Los resultados se presentan en la Figura 1.Figura 1. Resultados de la predicción por variables

Tema1

El laberinto político sin precedentes en el que se ha convertido el proceso de salida del Reino Unido de la UE está generando una incertidumbre creciente sobre sus consecuencias económicas, especialmente en aquellas áreas próximas a las fronteras terrestres con el continente europeo: Irlanda del Norte y, en España, el Campo de Gibraltar.

Resumen

La proximidad geográfica con el Peñón genera efectos económicos positivos para los habitantes del Campo de Gibraltar gracias al empleo transfronterizo y a los intercambios de mercancías a través de la frontera. Este impulso económico es necesario en una comarca marcada por altos niveles de desempleo.…  Seguir leyendo » “Efectos económicos del Brexit en el Campo de Gibraltar: un modelo econométrico”

Sailing teams from Britain and China compete in a race in Sydney, Australia. Photo: Getty Images.

British Chancellor Philip Hammond’s canceled trip to Beijing highlights the difficult trade-offs the UK faces in its relationship with China.

For the Chinese government, Hammond’s efforts to boost economic ties cannot happily coexist with Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson’s remarks about sending an aircraft carrier to the Pacific and ‘oppos[ing] those who flout international law’. On top of the pressure the UK is under from other Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partners to take a tough line with Huawei’s participation in critical infrastructure, such a controversy could further damage a relationship that was already turbulent.

Seen from Beijing, China has been very clear about what it wants from a relationship with Britain, but Britain appears unable to decide what it wants from China.…  Seguir leyendo » “Britain Needs to Decide What It Wants From China”

Film still from No Stone Unturned (2017), directed by Alex Gibney

On August 31, 2018, I was in the Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow, waiting for my flight to New York, when I received this text on WhatsApp: “Trevor and Barry had their doors kicked in this morning in dawn raids and are presently in police custody for breach of s5 of Official Secrets Act.”

With a few clicks and a hasty review of a police press release from Belfast, Northern Ireland, I was able to grasp the basics. Trevor Birney and Barry McCaffrey, two producers on a documentary film I had directed, No Stone Unturned, had been arrested and held for questioning for the “theft” of classified documents relating to the Loughinisland Massacre, the subject of the film.…  Seguir leyendo » “How the Truth of ‘The Troubles’ Is Still Suppressed”