Conflicto territorial (Continuación)

¿Quién está ganando la guerra en Ucrania?

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Pese a la impresionante contraofensiva reciente de Ucrania en la región de Járkov, la guerra con Rusia ha caído en un atasco prolongado. Aun así, hay un vencedor claro: la industria armamentística estadounidense.

Algunos ven a las empresas del sector como el «arsenal de la democracia», como denominó el presidente Franklin Delano Roosevelt al esfuerzo industrial estadounidense en apoyo de los Aliados durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Y es innegable el papel que han tenido en la provisión de apoyo a Ucrania para que pudiera repeler la ocupación rusa. Pero su afán de lucro y su influencia sobre la política exterior estadounidense plantean la amenaza de que el arsenal termine volviéndose contra la democracia misma.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin under pressure: what is Russia’s next move?

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In late August, occupation authorities in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kupyansk held celebrations to mark Russian Flag Day.

A few dozen people — including both pro-Kremlin activists and locals who had stayed in the town after it was captured by Russian forces six months ago — unfurled an enormous 60mx40m Russian tricolour on the main square, then waved flags and danced to a medley of patriotic tunes.

Just a few weeks later, the Russian occupying forces were gone after a surprise Ukrainian attack forced them to surrender more than 3,000 sq km of territory, leaving tanks, armoured vehicles and supplies.…  Seguir leyendo »

A mother and son in front of their house in Izium, Ukraine, on Wednesday. Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press

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Three months ago I met Vyacheslav Zadorenko, a community leader from the Kharkiv region. From the relative safety of Derhachi, he told me about how his village, a settlement on the Russian border, had been occupied in the first days of Russia’s invasion. His mother didn’t manage to escape. “My personal victory”, he said, “would be when I can return to my family house”. In midsummer, as Russia consolidated its gains and slowly secured more, that seemed a sad, impossible dream.

But now it’s come true. A video posted on Telegram shows Mr. Zadorenko reunited with his mother. “I’ve gathered all your things, my dear son”, she says, running toward him excitedly.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cómo derrotar a Putin

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Mientras que algunos soldados rusos en Ucrania están votando con sus pies en contra de la vergonzosa guerra de Putin, su retirada veloz no significa que Putin vaya a rendirse. De hecho, la semana pasada abrió un nuevo frente: contra la energía.

El presidente de Rusia cree que ha encontrado una guerra fría que podría ganar y va a intentar congelar a Europa este invierno, literalmente, al cortar los suministros del gas y el petróleo rusos para presionar a la Unión Europea hasta que abandone a Ucrania.

Los predecesores de Putin en el Kremlin aprovecharon los inviernos frígidos para derrotar a Napoleón y a Hitler, y está claro que Putin cree que el frío es su as bajo la manga para derrotar al presidente de Ucrania, Volodímir Zelenski, quien le dijo a su nación la semana pasada: “Rusia hará todo en los 90 días de este invierno para quebrar la resistencia de Ucrania, la resistencia de Europa y la resistencia del mundo”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cómo reconstruir Ucrania: la pregunta del billón de dólares

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La cámara sobrevuela la ciudad destruida. Entrando desde el río, va recorriendo las calles cubiertas de cascotes, algunos aún llameantes. No queda un solo edificio en pie; no hay rastro de vida. Varsovia, 1945. Un vídeo en 3D recrea cómo la dejaron los nazis y la encontraron las tropas soviéticas. Se puede ver en el Museo del Alzamiento, un símbolo del relato nacional de la Polonia moderna.

La reconstrucción del centro histórico de Varsovia fue declarada Patrimonio de la Humanidad por la Unesco en 1980. Antes se había librado la batalla entre quienes abogaban por reproducir fielmente lo que hubo y quienes preferían una ciudad nueva, moderna.…  Seguir leyendo »

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A l’époque, la Pologne n’est séparée de la Russie soviétique – sa voisine fraîchement née – par aucune frontière officielle et les deux parties tentent de s’approprier le maximum de territoires que les troupes allemandes en retraite laissent derrière elles. Comme les Allemands manifestent à de multiples reprises une attitude ouvertement plus favorable aux Soviétiques, ce sont ces derniers qui héritent du plus de terres. Dans les mois qui suivent, les combats engagés dans ces confins de l’Est de la République de Pologne font pencher la balance tantôt d’un côté, tantôt de l’autre, sans qu’aucun des deux belligérants n’arrive à s’imposer clairement.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, on Wednesday visits Izyum, one of the largest cities recaptured from Russia. (AFP Photo/Ukrainian Presidential Press-Service via Getty Images)

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At first glance, Kyiv looked strangely normal. There were a few barricades here and there, but mostly the streets were busy, traffic was moving, shops were open and restaurants were full. You could buy French wines, American energy drinks and Swiss chocolates at the local grocery store. The city looked much as it had on my last visit a year ago, though getting there this time was far more complicated. I flew to Poland, drove to the Polish-Ukrainian border and then took a 12-hour overnight train to Kyiv.

Scratch beneath the surface, however, and find a society profoundly scarred by the Russian invasion.…  Seguir leyendo »

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For the first time in the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing it. Early setbacks around Kyiv and Chernigov had been balanced by Russian gains in the south and the east; they could be justified as tactical retreats and thus as Russian choices, regardless of whether they truly were. By contrast, the near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region on September 10—and the rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces of territory spanning some 2,000 square miles in the east and south—clearly showed that Ukraine was on top and that Russian troops may continue to fall to future such offensives.…  Seguir leyendo »

La estrategia contra Rusia está funcionando y debe mantenerse

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La guerra de Rusia contra Ucrania ha entrado en una nueva fase. El ejército ucraniano está haciendo avances espectaculares, liberando muchos pueblos y ciudades y forzando la retirada de las tropas rusas. Aunque aún está por ver el alcance de la contraofensiva ucraniana, está claro que está cambiando el equilibro estratégico sobre el terreno.

Mientras, la Unión Europa está movilizando todos sus recursos para hacer frente a la crisis energética. Tenemos ya las reservas de gas a más del 80% (mucho antes del 1 de noviembre que nos habíamos marcado como objetivo) y hemos acordado aprobar reducciones en el consumo de gas para el invierno.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Ukrainian flag outside the European Parliament in Brussels, June 2022. Yves Herman / Reuters

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The surprising success of Ukraine’s offensive to retake territory Russia seized since its invasion February has left Russian President Vladimir Putin with precious few choices to turn the tide of war. Without a mass mobilization, which Putin has ruled out for fear of domestic opposition, Russia is running out of men and materiel to keep the territory it still holds, let alone regain the initiative. Putin’s best hope—perhaps his only hope—is that Western support for Ukraine will crumble as the costs of war, including energy shortages and rising prices, begin to hit home in Europe.

Putin has been here before. He invaded Ukraine believing that a divided and weakened West did not have the stomach for confrontation.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian flags are seen on statues in a square in Balakliya, Kharkiv region, on Sept. 10 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images)

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Russian forces are on the run in Ukraine. It’s a disaster in the making for Russian President Vladimir Putin — and for all his right-wing apologists in the GOP.

The Post reports, “A Ukrainian counteroffensive that has sent Russian forces into a hasty retreat could mark a turning point in the war and raise pressure on Moscow to call up additional forces if it hopes to prevent further Ukrainian advances, U.S. and Western officials said Monday”. NATO, also derided by right-wing nationalist forces in the GOP, has expanded and lavished support on Ukraine, showing a sense of moral purpose and commitment not seen since World War II.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2018. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

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Almost seven months into the Russia-Ukraine war, China is still claiming to be a neutral party, despite the evidence. And when Vladimir Putin meets Xi Jinping this week, the falsity of that claim will come into full and dramatic view. China’s increasing support for Russia is driving some in Ukraine to push for closer cooperation with Taiwan, a fellow democracy under threat.

The Ukrainian government has been careful to walk a fine line in its relations with Beijing and Taipei. Even though Xi and Putin pledged a partnership with “no limits” when they last met in February, the idea that Ukraine should develop closer ties with Taipei has been controversial in Kyiv.…  Seguir leyendo »

Time Is Running Out to Defend Taiwan. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it abundantly clear that “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China is a legacy issue for him, something he intends to accomplish on his watch through political and economic means or, if necessary, through military force. Right now, he is preoccupied with the COVID-19 crisis, the slowing growth of the Chinese economy, and the upcoming 20th Party Congress, where he hopes to secure a third term as chair of the Chinese Communist Party. But once these immediate concerns are addressed, it is possible that sometime in the next five years Xi will consider taking Taiwan by force, either because nonmilitary efforts at reunification have fallen short or because he believes his chances of success will diminish if he waits and U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Si bien el 24 de febrero nadie apostaba por una derrota de las fuerzas invasoras rusas, ahora se plantea esta opción como la más probable para el desenlace de la guerra de Ucrania. Sin embargo, pocos se atreven a hacer predicciones de qué puede ocurrir en una Rusia caída en combate y humillada sobre el terreno. Podemos identificar al menos tres escenarios de futuro para el día después de que suceda.

Primer escenario

El escenario Gorbachov. Como en Afganistán, Rusia parece que será derrotada. Las consecuencias afectarán a los cimientos mismos del régimen. Los errores tácticos cometidos en las fases de planificación y ocupación provocarían una caída lenta del clan de San Petersburgo (el 'clan Putin').…  Seguir leyendo »

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Last week, I wrote that Ukrainian forces had the initiative and Vladimir Putin was losing his “war of choice”. Little did I know how true that was. When I wrote that column, attention was focused on Ukraine’s offensive in the south toward Kherson. That attack is making only incremental gains, but in the past week, Ukraine has launched a surprise offensive in Kharkiv province that has achieved lightning progress in the northeast.

The internet is full of images of jubilant Ukrainian civilians being freed from the yoke of Russian occupation. In all, Ukrainian forces claim to have liberated more than 1,000 square miles of territory (more than the land area of Los Angeles and New York combined), and the offensive is not over yet.…  Seguir leyendo »

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In mid - March, less than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, political scientist Francis Fukuyama offered a striking prediction: Ukraine will win.

Six months later, Ukraine is on the offensive, and is recapturing key territory amid signs of weakening Russian resolve. Reports indicate that weaponry and intelligence supplied by the United States and other allied nations are giving Ukraine’s counteroffensive a serious boost. The NATO alliance has remained durable and united behind Ukraine, despite Russia’s attempt to undermine that unity by limiting natural gas exports to Europe.

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While it’s impossible to say whether Ukraine will prevail, it’s now a real possibility.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nostalgias de paz y proyectos de guerra

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Vosotros no visteis más que el Gulag y no los campos nazis de exterminio, o no visteis más que esos campos y no el Gulag, vosotros no veis más que la agresión rusa bajo el despotismo de Putin e ignoráis la política imperialista de los Estados Unidos; yo no soy uno de vosotros. Edgar Morin.

Guardo todavía unos gemelos o pasadores para la camisa que me regalara hace un cuarto de siglo Javier Solana, entonces secretario general de la OTAN. Su valor no es sentimental, ni mucho menos material, sino exclusivamente político. En uno de ellos luce, negro sobre blanco, el nombre de la OTAN.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian troops in the Kharkiv region last week: setbacks are undermining morale.

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After five months on the defensive, Ukraine has seized the initiative from the Russian armed forces and is on the offensive. In the south, Ukrainian troops are pushing Russia’s most capable combat units back towards Kherson and fixing them against the west bank of the Dnieper River, where they can be destroyed in place with artillery.

In the north-east, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise counteroffensive to sever the ground lines of communication north of Izyum, the base from which Russian forces were attempting to push into Donbas, compelling a Russian withdrawal. Several key capabilities have enabled these successes. In June, the Ukrainians could not concentrate their forces because of the volume of Russian artillery arrayed against them and struggled to get timely tactical intelligence from unmanned aerial vehicles – drones – because of extensive Russian electronic warfare and air defence complexes.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Mikhailovsky Cathedral in Kyiv, August 4, 2022

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In August I spent two weeks traveling around Ukraine by train, using my sketchbook to document quotidian existence in the shadow of Russia’s invasion. By the time I arrived the Ukrainian army had largely pushed the war back to the country’s south and east. Lviv, Odesa, and Kyiv had returned to vivid life. Kids tore around on scooters. Buskers played the bandura. Babushkas sold vegetables off blankets. Girls with perfect blowouts smoked shishas in cafés that spilled out over cobblestone streets. But it’s a deceptive sort of enchantment. In ways large and small, the war had mutilated every person’s life.

Some people I met had fled the destroyed cities of Mariupol and Kharkiv.…  Seguir leyendo »

Soldados ucranianos a bordo de un tanque en Bakhmut. Reuters

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Tras siete meses de guerra, el ejército ruso está muy desgastado. El Kremlin ha perdido 74.000 hombres de una fuerza inicial de invasión de 200.000. 18.500 de ellos han muerto. 55.500 han sido heridos.

Más del 60% de ellos cayó durante febrero y marzo en los primeros arduos compases de la guerra. El resto se fue consumiendo en las escaramuzas libradas por todo el frente y en la agónica ofensiva del Donbás.

Los rusos agotaron sus últimas fuerzas cuando aseguraron en julio las dos urbes de 100.000 habitantes que son Lysichiansk y Severodonetsk.

Entretanto, Ucrania ha decretado la movilización general (en marcha desde febrero), se ha beneficiado de la llegada de abundante armamento y se estima que cada mes adiestra un mínimo de 15.000 hombres.…  Seguir leyendo »