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Es difícil imaginar una reunión más transcendental que la que los presidentes Biden y Xi acaban de mantener en los aledaños de la reunión del G-20 en Bali. La ausencia de Putin, sin duda, ha facilitado la redacción de un comunicado final en el que la mayoría de los miembros del G-20—aunque no todos— deploran la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia y solicitan que las tropas rusas se retiren. En cambio, el resto —entre los que se encuentra China— declara de manera abierta no ver las cosas así, haciendo referencia expresa a las sanciones como problema. A pesar del comunicado, la guerra en Ucrania no parece haber sido el fondo del diálogo bilateral entre Biden y Xi, sino Taiwán.… Seguir leyendo »
La pugna entre Estados Unidos y China por la primacía mundial ocupa todos los escenarios posibles. Desde el cultural y económico hasta el militar y tecnológico.
Aunque Washington es todavía el enemigo a batir, Pekín ha reducido notablemente la distancia con su competidor en los últimos lustros. Más de lo que lo hizo nunca la Unión Soviética.
Este avance invita a pensar que el adelantamiento por la derecha del gran dragón de Oriente es inevitable y que el Tío Sam, en los próximos años, hincará la rodilla frente al inevitable ímpetu chino.
Sin embargo, los americanos parecen haber despertado a tiempo.… Seguir leyendo »
Competition and conflict between the United States and China have continued to intensify. On Aug. 2, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan to showcase congressional support for the self-governing island, defying Chinese protests that her visit was inconsistent with the “one China” policy of the United States. China responded by ringing the island with live-fire military exercises, missile tests and other operations in the Taiwan Strait.
On Oct. 7, the Biden administration ordered sweeping export controls to prevent China from acquiring the most advanced semiconductors and the equipment required to manufacture them, and forbidding any American or foreign company to sell to China any such equipment that uses American technology.… Seguir leyendo »
Global flows of students, scholars and ideas have soared over the past two decades, proving to be one of the most resilient aspects of globalisation. By 2019 the number of higher-education students in a foreign country hit 6m, triple the number from 2000, while almost one-quarter of all scientific publications had cross-border co-authors, up from 18.6% in 2011. This exchange has created incalculable value in interpersonal connections, economic benefits and such fruits of collaborative research as the Human Genome Project and covid-19 vaccines.
Nowhere has the growth in global academic exchange been more visible than in that between America and China.… Seguir leyendo »
Soon after President Xi Jinping of China took power, he instructed top Communist Party leaders in a 2013 speech to turn the country into a “maritime superpower”.
China already has the world’s largest navy, though its ability to contend with U.S. naval forces remains in doubt. But leaders in Beijing have realized that maritime strength is not measured solely in firepower.
Success in commercial shipping would have “great and far-reaching significance” for Chinese national strength and security, Mr. Xi told the Politburo then, reminding the party that throughout history the most powerful nations were those that controlled the seas. Nearly a decade later, Mr.… Seguir leyendo »
"Those who play with fire will perish by it". Xi Jinping’s threat to Joe Biden in July was a warning against Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. And after her departure from the island, China fired ballistic missiles and took other dangerous actions in the waters surrounding the island. Twenty-two Chinese aircraft crossed the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. Ships from the Chinese navy ran drills that mimicked a blockade of Taiwan—no small threat for an island which imports over 60% of its food and 98% of its energy.
For the past four decades, Republican and Democratic American presidents have maintained the policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward the defence of Taiwan, maintaining the capacity and military capabilities to defend the island against attack by China without explicitly committing America to doing so.… Seguir leyendo »
Taiwán se ha convertido en el mayor dilema estratégico de Washington y Pekín en el juego de poder por dominar el tablero geopolítico global. Ya lo era antes de la visita de la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes de los Estados Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, aunque su paso por la isla ha supuesto la actualización de las respectivas agendas estratégicas.
En la nueva normalidad resultante, los intereses nacionales de ambas partes no cambian. Por parte de China, la intensificación de las maniobras militares en el estrecho es una clara advertencia a Taiwán, y a su opinión pública, de que en esta cuenta atrás acelerada hacia la reunificación se podrían desplegar escenarios de bloqueo de la isla que impidan la llegada de asistencia por parte de Estados Unidos y Japón.… Seguir leyendo »
U.S. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump don’t agree on much, but their administrations together have executed the most important pivot in U.S. foreign policy since the 9/11 terrorist attacks: centering grand strategy around systematic great-power competition with China and Russia. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has genuine rivals for international leadership with the ability to potentially defeat U.S. forces in military conflict. Yet approaching this geopolitical earthquake purely as a competition doesn’t tell the full story and makes it hard for presidents to garner popular support for difficult policy choices in what is a generational struggle.… Seguir leyendo »
China’s overreaction and retaliation toward Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit shows that the leadership in Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification as it has long claimed. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategy has moved from winning Taiwanese hearts and minds to inciting fear and loathing.
Although China seems to be finally winding down its military exercises around Taiwan, a week after Pelosi visited the democratic island, China’s drastic responses and ongoing punishments mark the beginning of new era of heightened danger. China canceled three military-to-military dialogues and suspended several bilateral cooperation programs on topics ranging from climate change to counternarcotics.… Seguir leyendo »
In the afternoon of August 4th, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) kicked off the largest and most sophisticated military exercises it has ever conducted. Over the course of a week, the Chinese launched dozens of missiles and conducted drills near Taiwan with 100 aircraft, ten destroyers and support vessels. Submarines and aircraft-carriers also played a role. The display has made the third Taiwan Strait crisis, which occurred between 1995-96, when China conducted four rounds of tests over the course of several months, with barrages of no more than six missiles, look like child’s play.
Part of the rationale for the latest exercise was to signal Beijing’s anger over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.… Seguir leyendo »
My generation of Chinese looked up to the United States.
When I was a university student in northwestern China in the late 1990s, my friends and I tuned in to shortwave broadcasts of Voice of America, polishing our English while soaking up American and world news. We flocked to packed lecture halls whenever a visiting American professor was on campus.
It was a thrilling time. China was emerging from isolationism and poverty, and as we looked to the future we studied democracy, market economics, equality and other ideals that made America great. We couldn’t realistically adopt them all because of China’s conditions, but our lives were transformed as we recalibrated our economy on a U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
En 1950, las tropas de Mao Zedong estaban preparadas para invadir Taiwán. Era el último territorio bajo control de Chiang Kai-shek, líder nacionalista contra el que habían luchado los comunistas en la guerra civil china. Entonces, Corea del Norte, apoyada por Stalin, decidió invadir Corea del Sur. Mao tuvo que mover sus tropas desde Taiwán hasta la frontera sino-coreana. La reunificación nacional china quedó abortada. Taiwán se consolidó como el gran bastión estadounidense de la Guerra Fría desde el que se quería reconquistar China de manos del comunismo. La isla se convirtió en el punto de tensión más duradero e importante entre Pekín y Washington.… Seguir leyendo »
La visita de Nanci Pelosi a Taiwán ha recordado a la misión Dart de la NASA, cuyo objetivo es estrellar una sonda sobre el asteroide Dimorphos y comprobar si es posible desviar su órbita. Eso serviría eventualmente para cambiar la trayectoria de un objeto que se dirija hacia la Tierra.
Dimorphos no es sólo China en mi imaginario, sino el statu quo geopolítico.
Por un lado está la carrera por el puesto de primera potencia mundial entre China y Estados Unidos. Xi Jinping quiere ganar ese juego y dar un zarpazo sobre Taiwán.
El otro nivel es el económico, donde China continental abandonó hace tiempo la dogmática comunista y permitió el desarrollo de una economía de mercado.… Seguir leyendo »
El jueves al menos 11 misiles chinos cayeron en aguas al norte, sur y este de Taiwan. Cinco de ellos, según Japón, en la zona económica exclusiva (ZEE) japonesa próxima a Okinawa, donde se encuentra una de las principales bases militares estadounidenses del Pacífico. China no reconoce esa ZEE como japonesa. Con estas maniobras, que incluyen las prácticas más intensas de fuego artillero en su frontera con Taiwan, China cerró prácticamente el espacio aéreo y marítimo de seis zonas alrededor de la isla. El mando militar chino de oriente, que cubre Taiwan, anunció tras la visita dePelosi a Taipei la movilización de más de 100 aviones de combate, bombarderos y otros aparatos, y de más de 10 destructores y fragatas.… Seguir leyendo »
For two days straight, Chinese military officials have been delivering a message of triumph to the public. The exercises with which the People’s Liberation Army is punishing Taiwan for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi feature “multiple firsts”, they gloated on state television.
“Our firepower covers all of Taiwan, and we can strike wherever we want”, said Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the PLA Navy Research Institute. “We got really close to Taiwan. We encircled Taiwan. And we demonstrated that we can effectively stop intervention by foreign forces”.
The Pelosi visit to Taipei, the first in 25 years by a Speaker of the House, was designed to demonstrate support for the country in the face of what many in the US believe to be a growing threat of a Chinese invasion.… Seguir leyendo »
As a Taiwanese, I’m sometimes asked what it’s like living in “the most dangerous place on earth”.
That’s what The Economist labeled Taiwan last year, and not without reason. Taiwan’s people have lived for decades under Chinese rhetorical threats to absorb the island. And as our huge Communist-ruled neighbor has developed into a military power, those threats now have teeth, which China has repeatedly bared in recent years through military exercises and violations of our air space in an escalating bullying campaign.
We are bracing for more pressure now after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s whirlwind visit to Taipei. China often reacts furiously when any U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China’s territory for 1,800 years. In 1943, the leaders of China, the United States and Britain issued the Cairo Declaration, which clearly states that all territories Japan stole from the Chinese, such as Taiwan, shall be restored to China. The Potsdam Declaration of 1945 affirmed that the terms of the Cairo Declaration would be carried out. United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, passed in 1971, recognized that the representatives of the government of the People’s Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations.
When China and the United States established diplomatic relations on Jan.… Seguir leyendo »
How did the world’s two most powerful nations find themselves in a hair-raising crisis that could spill into a military conflict? The strangest aspect of the current conflict over Taiwan is how predictable it was.
Taiwan has been known to be the most sensitive issue for both the United States and China, one that has been carefully managed for five decades. And House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) recent visit to the island — which triggered the current conflict — was something she signaled she intended to do months ago.
On the American side, several errors — many of them tactical and driven by domestic politics — have resulted in a dangerous reality: There is no serious working relationship between the 21st century’s two most powerful actors.… Seguir leyendo »
US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi’s, visit to Taiwan has plunged China-US relations into a new low as the reservoir of trust forged between the two sides over the last 40 years appears to be almost exhausted.
However, her move will likely not result in the full-scale crisis across the Taiwan strait that some hawkish voices in both Beijing and Washington believe. Instead, Beijing will most likely offer a combination of military posturing toward the US navy and economic sanctions on Taiwanese agricultural and manufacturing products in order to send a clear bellwether to any future potential visits by high-level Western political figures.… Seguir leyendo »
La calculada visita de la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, a Taiwán va a marcar el inicio de una nueva etapa en el estado de las relaciones entre Washington y Pekín. A tres meses de la celebración del XX Congreso Nacional del Partido Comunista de China, que seguramente reafirmará a Xi Jinping en un tercer mandato, la intensa agenda de Estados Unidos en el Indo-Pacífico incorpora activamente a Taiwán en una compleja estrategia de la que todo el tablero geoestratégico de esa región será testigo.
Al permanente estado de alerta en el que se encuentra el estrecho de Taiwán hay que añadirle la mención del presidente Biden hasta en tres ocasiones durante sus dos años de mandato del compromiso de Estados Unidos de involucrarse militarmente en su defensa.… Seguir leyendo »
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