Chatham House (Continuación)

Leaders of the G5 Sahel West African countries and their ally France confer over efforts to stem a jihadist offensive unfolding in the region. Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

Chad’s ‘Après-Déby’ moment has been the subject of intense speculation and discrete scenario-planning for years by the country’s external partners and stakeholders as no-one seriously entertained the possibility he would ever step down peacefully.

But such prior reflection did not cushion the shock in N’Djaména and foreign capitals when the military announced his death on the battlefield – as his army confronted a rebel incursion from across Chad’s Libyan border – immediately dissolved the National Assembly, and declared 18 months of rule by a Transitional Military Council headed by Déby’s own son Mahamat.

With Déby gone, the future of Chad is in doubt, as well as its role as a military actor across a huge region of Central and Sahelian Africa, as a key partner for Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger in the struggle to contain Boko Haram, and as a strategic ally for France.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man prays in the Old Town Square in Prague, Czech Republic. Photo by MICHAL CIZEK/AFP via Getty Images.

EuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior

The bad news from Russia continues to come thick and fast with the ongoing slow-motion murder of Alexey Navalny in prison and the continuing presence of Russian troop concentrations on the Ukrainian border, both of which present significant policy challenges to supporters of human rights and of Ukraine’s independence.

But the disclosure of a direct attack by Russia on a NATO and EU member state – a massive explosion in an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic back in 2014 – is an action to which a failure to respond assertively would be both inexcusable and highly dangerous.

The Czech authorities say the explosion was the work of the same two Russian military intelligence officers – Aleksandr Mishkin and Anatoliy Chepiga – who carried out the 2018 Salisbury poison attack.…  Seguir leyendo »

Counting US dollars at a currency exchange. Photo by Ian Waldie/Getty Images.

MundoAmérica

President Biden’s approach to economic policy in its first 100 days can be summarized in just five words: ‘Go big or go home’. Following arguably the most difficult transition process in living memory, the administration hit the ground running with more executive orders, memoranda, and proclamations than most predecessors at the same point.

The Biden administration has so far promised more than $4 trillion in spending with more to come, far outstripping the fiscal response to the 2008 global financial crisis. But even more impressive than the numbers, ‘Bidenomics’ is building a new paradigm for America’s economic success.

Joe Biden has been much more active in undoing past actions than all his three predecessors, with 19 of his 39 orders revoking prior ones.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cars and cyclists in Times Square in New York. More than 300 corporates are pushing the Biden administration to almost double the US' target for cutting its greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAméricaReflexionesNaturaleza, ,

In his first 100 days, US President Joe Biden has taken laudable steps to address climate change including establishing a ‘whole of government’ approach, rejoining the Paris Agreement and embedding climate experts to take action across the administration.

But now the real challenge looms. In order for the US to affirm its legitimacy on climate in a politically divided landscape at home, Biden needs to simultaneously prioritize domestic policy action, while rebuilding international alliances to show that his administration can deliver on its long-term commitments.

Specifically, the US needs to get three things right during the Leaders’ Summit on Climate that Biden is hosting this week: demonstrate its commitment to federal-level action that will ensure long-term policy change, validate the durability of transatlantic relationships while expanding partnerships and deftly manage cooperation-competition dynamics with China.…  Seguir leyendo »

US President, Joe Biden, signs the American Rescue Plan into law on 11 March 2021 at the Oval Office. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAméricaInternacionalEconomía

Joe Biden is proving to be both bold in his fiscal ambitions and brave in his choice of battles. This is especially true of the latest effort by the US president and Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, to wade into the labyrinth of corporate taxation. Obscure regulations have long shaped the financial structure of international companies which exploit legitimate loopholes to save on tax. There are therefore substantial benefits to reform – not least helping to fund Joe Biden’s multitrillion dollar spending plans. But reform, of course, will require overcoming systemic inertia and entrenched political opposition. The campaign will also test Biden’s ability to mobilize coalitions to drive change.…  Seguir leyendo »

Futurescape is a Chatham House initiative for our second century, generating innovative thinking and exploring how a more sustainable future could come about in the next one hundred years around London’s Piccadilly Circus.

EuropaReflexionesNuevas Tecnologías

‘We wanted flying cars. Instead we got 140 characters’ said controversial technology entrepreneur Peter Thiel more than a decade ago. Clearly technologies will play an outsized role in shaping humanity’s future, including that of our urban habitat. But predicting which specific technologies will race ahead is no mean feat, although huge effort has gone into dissecting future trends and anticipating new needs and wants.

Futurescape is a Chatham House initiative for our second century, generating innovative thinking and exploring how a more sustainable future could come about in the next one hundred years around London’s Piccadilly Circus, an area which has been the Institute’s neighbourhood for almost a century.…  Seguir leyendo »

Delegates speak together as they attend the fourth edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference at the capital Riyadh's Ritz-Carlton hotel on 27 January 2021. Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoOriente Próximo

The rapidly changing investment landscape in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is drawing much attention to the region. In Saudi Arabia, the economic diversification project is led by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), a sovereign wealth fund. PIF aims to stimulate the non-oil private sector through both foreign and domestic investment as well as by fuelling the local start-up ecosystem with new funding bodies, venture capital and angel investor networks. PIF has sought to generate more funds for these initiatives by borrowing, taking 5% of Saudi Aramco public and selling their full stake in the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC).…  Seguir leyendo »

People queue at a polling station on 11 April 2021 in Huaraz, Peru. Peruvians are voting amid a surge in cases of COVID-19 and an economic and social crisis pushed by the pandemic. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAmérica,

The spectre of populism – both of the left and right variety – has hung over Latin American politics and economics since the 19th century but, for the last two decades, a new wave of populist movements and leaders has developed as a result of ongoing economic dislocation and popular anger at the political class.

Although too early to assess the impact of the recent elections in Ecuador and Peru on populism’s future in the region – with 18 presidential candidates in Peru only narrowly being winnowed down for a 6 June 2021 run-off with the two leading candidates boasting just a combined total of around 30 per cent of the vote – for many countries in the region the long-term effect of COVID-19 on economic growth and social mobility casts a dark shadow.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will hold a two-day extraordinary Troika Summit in Maputo on 8-9 April to deliberate on measures to address the armed militancy in northern Mozambique.

Countering the armed militants known locally as al-Shabab is an urgent regional and international priority following their attacks on Palma since 24 March and the devastation caused in deaths, displaced, and destruction and damage to property. The government recaptured the town on 5 April but it is too soon to assess the total death count in Palma, likely to be in the dozens with thousands newly-displaced.

Since 2017, some 2,500 have been killed and nearly 700,000 internally displaced by this insurgency, but the Palma attack is a new morbid watershed.…  Seguir leyendo »

Student with her handmade water circulation models for World Water Day 2021 at the Inner Mongolia Museum of Natural History in Hohhot, part of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. Photo by Wang Zheng/VCG via Getty Images.

ReflexionesNaturaleza

After almost a whole year away from classrooms for far too many pupils, educators everywhere are having to rethink how to teach. But they should also be rethinking what to teach in terms of preparing for a different kind of economy.

When politicians and commentators refer to a ‘green recovery’ or a ‘Green New Deal’, it is open to interpretation. Most people understand ‘green’ to essentially mean ‘in harmony with nature’ but, by that definition alone, some consider nuclear power to be green while others apply the same label to natural gas, which is a fossil fuel.

Natural processes can also be used to decide what is green because constructive natural processes never use high temperatures – unlike, say, fire or nuclear reactions.…  Seguir leyendo »

The opening session of US-China talks in Anchorage, Alaska on 18 March 2021.

MundoAméricaMundoAsia, ,

The latest bilateral talks between the US and China show that the evolving dynamics between the two countries are becoming increasingly complex. The stakes are high and too much is on the line to let the US-China rivalry escalate into a military conflict. Instead, both countries need to come together to develop a joint vision for a sustainable and peaceful world.

In recent years, several simplistic narratives seem to have taken hold in the US-China relationship, chief among them, that liberal democracies are under threat by the rise of non-democratic competitors around the world, particularly China, who seemingly threaten the international rules-based system.…  Seguir leyendo »

A defaced electoral poster for Israeli prime minister and candidate, Benjamin Netanyahu, in the Arab city of Kfar Qassem in central Israel, on 22 March 2021. Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoOriente Próximo,

A fourth election in two years has yet again failed to produce a conclusive result. Some of the results form part of a consistent pattern, but there are also some unexpected twists that the pollsters had not foreseen which will prove crucial for the formation and composition of a coalition government.

Of the 13 parties that will serve in the Knesset, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party won 30 of the 120 seats up for grabs, followed by the centrist party Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, which won 17 seats. There is also an array of smaller parties representing a range of interests, ideologies and sectors in Israeli society, from Jewish ultra-Orthodox to Islamist, from peace and human rights parties to the ultra-right xenophobic and homophobic Kahanist party.…  Seguir leyendo »

HMS Queen Elizabeth departs from the Naval base on September 21, 2020 in Portsmouth, England. Photo by Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images.

MundoAsiaEuropa,

All European countries – many of them NATO allies – see European and Euro-Atlantic security as the top strategic priority, though the ‘threat perception’ of central and eastern Europe tends to focus on Russia, and southern Europe on the Mediterranean and southern neighbourhood.

But Europe’s attention is now also increasingly turning to Asian security as developments in that region – above all, the rise of China – begin to heavily impact European interests. Even NATO is assessing links between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security. But the resources Europeans can devote to Asian security are limited. If they are to play an increasing role in Asian security – given the wide range of challenges in that region – it is time to think in a more structured way about how it can be done.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protesters ask businesses and shops to close and people to stay home in a 'silent strike' to shut down entire towns and cities in Yangon after Myanmar's forces killed a 7-year-old girl in Mandalay. Photo by Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

MundoAsia,

Whether China’s approach to Myanmar proves fruitful or not depends on the metrics used to consider success and on the outcome of the current stand-off in that country between most of the population, which voted for the National League for Democracy (NLD), and the military.

Much of the focus is on how China did not welcome the military coup and how it has improved relations with the NLD in recent years. But its actions since the coup – or in fact, apparent lack of them – suggest its approach to Myanmar purely reflects its own self-interest.

Any concerns China has about the coup seem to relate only to the resulting instability rather than the coup itself.…  Seguir leyendo »

The logo of Japan's electronics and information technology company NEC displayed at the company's headquarters in Tokyo, on 27 June 2020. Photo by KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoAsiaEuropa, , ,

Following a 2019 telecoms supply chain review and the decision in July 2020 to remove Huawei from its 5G network, the UK government released its 5G Supply Chain Diversification Strategy (SCDS) in November 2020. These policies mark a historic shift in UK telecommunications policy. The key message is that the government will proactively intervene in the telecoms industry to tackle supplier lock-in and incumbent advantages that limit competition.

Its long-term vision includes the disaggregation of network supply chains, open interfaces that promote interoperability, a global supply chain for components, transparent and independent standards, and the prioritization of network security and resilience.…  Seguir leyendo »

UNICEF's Pandemic Classroom at the UN headquarters in New York highlights why governments need to be better prepared, as more than 168 million children globally have no access to in-class learning. Photo by Chris Farber/UNICEF via Getty Images.

InternacionalONU

The United Nations Secretary-General’s inbox is full as his organization celebrates its 75th anniversary. Trust must be rebuilt amid increased geo-political rivalry, North-South divisions, and sceptical citizens left behind by globalization. The international community has manifestly underinvested in institutional resilience and prevention. Better partnerships are needed with the private sector, and innovative forms of cross-regional cooperation fostered.

There are positive signs UN member states want things to change. They unanimously agreed a Political Declaration last September strongly reaffirming multilateralism, and they gave António Guterres one year to present a roadmap on how to respond, ‘building back better’ in the face of climate change and COVID-19.…  Seguir leyendo »

Paddle boarders in the Red Sea close to the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Company's (EAPC) oil terminal at Eilat, a destination for Emirati crude oil under a new UAE-Israeli deal. Photo by MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoOriente Próximo

Although the jury remains out on whether the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Murban oil futures contract will become the new regional benchmark, it does reveal Abu Dhabi’s clear vision of its future and the role hydrocarbons are going to continue to play in it.

Only time will tell, but setting up the Murban contract to launch on Abu Dhabi-based exchange ICE Futures is certainly part of ADNOC’S strategy to displace S&P Global Platts monthly crude price assessments and ‘hold the pen’ on the emirate’s oil future, leveraging its hydrocarbon endowment to the full.

The futures trading platform tests the market appetite for Murban, which looks promising and, if successful, helps Abu Dhabi consolidate its position as a major producer in a shrinking oil market as well as again call into question the UAE's commitment to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – unclear since December’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.…  Seguir leyendo »

Sharing an iPhone selfie from the campus of Wuhan University, Hubei Province, China. Photo by Wang HE/Getty Images.

MundoAsia

Freedom of expression was subject to significant restrictions in Asia even before the pandemic, with several governments having enacted laws that stifle online debate. But since COVID-19, restrictions have increased even further due to a rash of so-called ‘emergency measures’ introduced by governments across the region.

Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam have all put new laws into place, and many restrictions are already being applied in a draconian fashion, such as in the Philippines and Bangladesh.

As outlined in a new Chatham House research paper, one inspiration behind this trend is China, home to the world’s most sophisticated and restrictive system of internet control.…  Seguir leyendo »

Drinking tea while UK prime minister Boris Johnson gives a televised message to the nation from 10 Downing Street in London. Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images.

Europa

Whether sceptical or expectant, those watching Britain from beyond its shores can draw many insights from the UK government’s dense and detailed 105-page Integrated Review of Defence, Diplomacy and Development. Most importantly, the Review reflects some of the realism that has started to infuse the government after the failures of its pandemic response during 2020. Putting Britain forward as a ‘problem-solving and burden-sharing nation’ sets a humbler tone than many had come to expect from this government.

The Review also recognizes the serious challenges the country faces at home, linking its foreign policy ambitions explicitly to Johnson’s commitment to level up poorer regions and to prevent disintegration of the Union.…  Seguir leyendo »

An aerial photo shows Straddle Carriers moving shipping containers at Seaforth Dock in Liverpool, north west England on 17 March 2021. Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images.

Europa, ,

On 1 February 2021, the UK government formally applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a trade pact between 11 countries: Japan, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Mexico, Chile and Peru. This was a smart decision by the UK as it will set or renew its trade terms with 11 trading partners in just one negotiation.

What is the CPTPP?

The CPTPP is a big agreement. Its members account for 13 per cent of global GDP, 15 per cent of global trade, with a population of 500 million people located in the growing and increasingly rich Asia-Pacific region.…  Seguir leyendo »