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Reunir una lista de las guerras a las que más atención y apoyo debe prestar la comunidad internacional en 2016 es difícil, y no por buenos motivos. Tras el fin de la guerra fría, durante veinte años, el número de conflictos mortales disminuyó. Había menos guerras y mataban a menos gente. Sin embargo, hace cinco años, esa tendencia positiva se invirtió, y desde entonces cada año hay más conflictos, más víctimas y más personas desplazadas. No parece que en 2016 vaya a mejorar la situación de 2015: lo que está en alza no es la paz, sino la guerra.
Dicho esto, hay algunos conflictos cuya urgencia y cuya importancia son mayores que las de otros.… Seguir leyendo »
Pulling together a list of the wars most in need of international attention and support in 2016 is challenging for all the wrong reasons. For 20 years after the end of the Cold War, deadly conflict was in decline. Fewer wars were killing fewer people the world over. Five years ago, however, that positive trend went into reverse, and each year since has seen more conflict, more victims, and more people displaced. 2016 is unlikely to bring an improvement from the woes of 2015: It is war — not peace — that has momentum.
That said, there are conflicts whose urgency and importance rise above.… Seguir leyendo »
During the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, thousands of brave citizens of both countries assisted our efforts, at great risk to themselves and their families. Many were killed because they stood with us. Many more faced serious threats. Now we have a moral obligation to stand with them by ensuring that those who need it have the opportunity to live safely and securely in the United States, a country they served at considerable risk even though it was not their own.
This is a matter of deep personal concern to me. When I became ambassador to Iraq in 2007, we had no special immigrant visa (SIV) program for our employees, and only a tiny number of those who served with us were being admitted into the United States as refugees.… Seguir leyendo »
The Saudi war in Iraq and lessons for Pakistan Irak parece estar desmoronándose a pedazos con el rápido avance del Estado Islámico de Irak y el Levante (ISIS, por sus siglas en inglés) que amenaza con llevar al país hacia una división entre chiíes, suníes y entidades kurdas, mientras que simultáneamente difumina la frontera con su turbulento vecino en el oeste. Por otra parte, la insurrección ahora amenaza con extenderse a otros dos países vecinos, Afganistán y Pakistán, que ya se enfrentan a innumerables desafíos internos. Para la India, el mensaje es claro: sus intereses de seguridad nacional están en riesgo.… Seguir leyendo »
It is not yet clear why two Iraqi army divisions entrusted with the defence of Mosul collapsed so suddenly and so abjectly two weeks ago. But a likely key factor in the astonishing success of the Isis invasion force, which apparently numbered less than 2000 men, was the failure of the US-led Coalition to provide Iraq with even a primitive air force.
If the Iraqis had had even a single squadron of Second World War-era Hurricanes or Mustangs they would have been able to stop the invasion force within a day.
The Isis fighters who came in from Syria did so by road, in pickup trucks, in a long convoy.… Seguir leyendo »
Afghanistan had an election a few weeks ago. Iraq had one Wednesday. But that is about all that these two countries, both invaded by the United States in the last decade, have in common right now. Afghanistan is moving forward just as rapidly as Iraq is moving backward. It is a telling contrast, and one that should inform the looming decision about a U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan after 2014.
Iraq is being plunged deeper into the abyss of all-out civil war that it barely avoided in 2007 thanks to President George W. Bush's troop "surge." Today, violence is back up to 2008 levels as Al Qaeda in Iraq, now known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, has returned from its near-death experience.… Seguir leyendo »
Barack Obama recibió de su predecesor, George W. Bush, una herencia bélica envenenada. Aunque distinguiera entre Irak como una guerra "elegida" y Afganistán como una guerra "necesaria", en ambos casos prometió la retirada.
La primera retirada ya ha tenido lugar, y seguramente ha sido mucho más honrosa de lo que Obama jamás pudo imaginar. La retirada de Irak no salva el desastre que fue la invasión ni convalida la pérdida consiguiente de vidas, como tampoco deja detrás una democracia estable, pero permite pasar una difícil página, reducir costes presupuestarios en época de crisis y, sobre todo, permitir a la Administración de Obama centrarse en su verdadero objetivo estratégico: Asia-Pacífico.… Seguir leyendo »
A version of this chart has been appearing in the Op-Ed pages every few months for eight years. The first was published eight months after the invasion of Iraq, and data from the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan were added in more recent years. Gains have been made in these three countries, but violence persists and peace is by no means assured. Nonetheless, with the end of the war in Iraq officially announced last week, this will be the last of the series.
Of the three, Iraq has presented the most extreme swings. In the months after the invasion, the country was relatively quiet — at least on the surface — but then it exploded in violence.… Seguir leyendo »
It is not a stretch to say that Barack Obama faces stiffer, more vexing challenges on more fronts than any president in recent memory. In the coming weeks, the Opinion section will publish a series of Op-Ed articles by experts on the most formidable issues facing the new president. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are the subject of today’s articles.
Barack Obama will take office having campaigned that he would fight the war on terrorism by focusing on winning the war in Afghanistan and eliminating Al Qaeda’s and the Taliban’s sanctuary in Pakistan. He recognizes that these two countries have become the center of Al Qaeda’s activities and of the violent Islamist extremism that challenges the real values of Islam. He also promised he would find the best way to withdraw from Iraq, and to create a new balance of security in the Persian Gulf.
He has less than two months to go from broad rhetoric to concrete day-to-day action. On Jan.… Seguir leyendo »
The surge in Iraq has been one of the most impressive military accomplishments in recent years. It has been so successful that the emerging consensus is that what may now be needed in Afghanistan is a similar surge of American forces. President-elect Barack Obama campaigned on his intention to do so, as did his former opponent, John McCain.
As one who is occasionally — and incorrectly — portrayed as an opponent of the surge in Iraq, I believe that while the surge has been effective in Iraq, we must also recognize the conditions that made it successful. President Bush’s bold decision to deploy additional troops to support a broader counterinsurgency strategy of securing and protecting the Iraqi people was clearly the right decision.… Seguir leyendo »
Cuando no se habían apagado aún los ecos de las convenciones de los dos grandes partidos, George Bush irrumpió en la campaña electoral con la primicia de una modesta retirada de tropas de Irak (unos 8.000 hombres) que concluirá en febrero, con un nuevo presidente instalado en la Casa Blanca. También anunció el envío de refuerzos a Afganistán, donde los 50.000 soldados de la OTAN (33.000 norteamericanos) se muestran incapaces de derrotar a la insurgencia de los talibanes y sus aliados de Pakistán. ¿Primer paso para un cambio de escenario bélico?, se pregunta la prensa de EEUU. Aunque el gran público no desea oír hablar de Irak, como admiten los demócratas, el maquillaje electoral y la percepción popular de que aquel país se estabiliza favorecen al senador John McCain, conspicuo abogado de la guerra y del aumento de tropas hasta su nivel actual (146.000 hombres).… Seguir leyendo »
Consensus is not a word usually associated with Iraq, but as security improves in the wake of the US troop surge, interested parties – the Bush administration, Iraq's Shia-led government, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, the Arab Gulf states and Iran – all agree, to varying degrees and for different reasons, that the time has come to start planning the withdrawal of US combat troops.
The corollary of this proposition is that additional US and Nato forces should be sent to Afghanistan where, in contrast, security is deteriorating. Again, there is a surprising amount of agreement. Democrat Barack Obama argues Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the "central front in the war on terror".… Seguir leyendo »
No one can return from the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, as I recently did, without believing that these are wars that can still be won. They are also clearly wars that can still be lost, but visits to the battlefield show that these conflicts are very different from the wars being described in American political campaigns and most of the debates outside the United States.
These conflicts involve far more than combat between the United States and its allies against insurgent movements such as al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Taliban. Meaningful victory can come only if tactical military victories end in ideological and political victories and in successful governance and development.… Seguir leyendo »
The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict. Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could have imagined.
The cost of direct US military operations - not even including long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans - already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is more than double the cost of the Korean War.
And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of the First World War.… Seguir leyendo »
Traveling in Iraq and Afghanistan in late January, I kept encountering two themes that cut across the usual U.S. political debate about these conflicts: The hard-nosed operations of U.S. Special Forces are increasingly effective, and so are the soft-power tactics of provincial reconstruction teams.
The debate over troop numbers may be missing the point. What's making the real difference isn't how many Americans are on the ground but how they are being used. That's true at both ends of the spectrum -- hard power and soft. And, as commanders learn to use these tools of counterinsurgency effectively, they may also be able to operate with fewer people and a lighter footprint.… Seguir leyendo »
In the run-up to war, senior British security and intelligence officials as well as diplomats made it clear that they were strongly opposed to the invasion of Iraq - though not clear enough. Why now, why Iraq, they asked; it would merely increase the terrorist threat, as the joint intelligence committee warned ministers less than a month before British troops and bombers joined the US attack on the country. Concern in Whitehall was shared by some perspicacious Americans, including General Tony Zinni, the former head of US central command, which is responsible for operations throughout the Middle East. He called it the wrong war, fought in the wrong place, at the wrong time.… Seguir leyendo »
The photographs gathered by The Post each month in a gallery called Faces of the Fallen are haunting. The soldiers are so young, enlisted men and women mostly, usually dressed in the uniforms they wore in Iraq and Afghanistan. What's striking is that most of them were killed by roadside bombs known as improvised explosive devices, or IEDs.
The United States is losing the war in Iraq because it cannot combat these makeshift weapons. An army with unimaginable firepower is being driven out by guerrillas armed with a crude arsenal of explosives and blasting caps, triggered by cellphones and garage-door openers.… Seguir leyendo »
"Ya que no somos profundos, seamos al menos oscuros", decía Alfonso de Cossío, citando a su maestro Felipe Clemente de Diego, cuando empezaba a explicarnos derecho hipotecario. Peor que la oscuridad que oculta la falta de profundidad, es la inconsistencia. Aunque no siempre las palabras inconsistentes pongan de manifiesto una inteligencia de la misma naturaleza, se convierten en síntoma si se pronuncian con solemnidad y pretendida ironía para desarmar a los críticos.
Ésa es la impresión que tuve cuando oí al señor Aznar reconocer que no sabía que no existían armas de destrucción masiva en Irak, añadiendo que nadie lo sabía entonces.… Seguir leyendo »
When a soldier dies, as has happened a lot in Afghanistan and Iraq lately, the death is likely to be placed well behind a story like Wayne Rooney’s foot or a Big Brother eviction. So when a reporter is killed or injured in a war, the resultant columns of grief in the newspapers cause enormous annoyance in the army, an officer friend said last week.
“Embedded journalists seem to want it both ways,” he said. “The glamour of wearing flak jackets and reporting incoming mortar rounds; but when it bites, then it’s all a terrible tragedy.”… Seguir leyendo »
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