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Frustrated by the precarious state of Ukraine’s war effort and the long delays in US aid, leaders in France and Britain have stepped up their promises to Ukraine in the last few days. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, repeated in an interview last week that he might send ground forces to shore up beleaguered Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, speaking in Kyiv, the British foreign minister, David Cameron, gave Ukraine the green light to strike into Russian territory, clearly signaling that the UK wants a more aggressive approach to the war.
Their frustration is understandable, as is the temptation to get more directly involved in the war, with more powerful weapons and more guarantees of long-term backing for Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
Then Mike Turner, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, issued a cryptic warning last week about the “serious national security threat” represented by a secret Russian military capability, the Republican representative from Ohio generated a wave of anxiety. Concern about Turner’s statement deepened when White House spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that Moscow is developing a “troubling” antisatellite weapon. Soon, multiple news outlets, such as The New York Times, were reporting that Moscow might be preparing to deploy a nuclear weapon in space.
The purpose of such a weapon may well be to destroy the large-scale satellite constellations used for communications and reconnaissance.… Seguir leyendo »
Earlier this week, veiled comments started to emerge on Capitol Hill regarding an unnamed and “serious national security threat”. By Thursday, a White House spokesman, John Kirby, let the American public in on what members of Congress were talking about: a new Russian space-based antisatellite capability that violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, suspected of being a space-based nuclear weapon.
Officials say the system is not active, and they have not detailed what it can do. But if it is what the White House suggests, we may now find ourselves facing this generation’s Sputnik moment. In 1957, when the former Soviet Union launched the world’s first satellite and shocked Americans, the Eisenhower administration had known about the Soviets’ satellite capabilities for almost two years.… Seguir leyendo »
To hear U.S. officials tell it, there is little risk that the war in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. “We don’t have any indication that Mr. Putin has any intention to use weapons of mass destruction—let alone nuclear weapons”, said White House spokesperson John Kirby in January. At a Senate hearing in early May, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russia was “very unlikely” to use its nuclear arsenal. Yes, CIA Director William Burns said a February speech, the United States must take Putin’s nuclear saber rattling seriously. But the purpose of such rhetoric, Burns continued, was “to intimidate us, as well as our European allies and Ukraine”.… Seguir leyendo »
In a speech this June, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan drew attention to China’s nuclear buildup, Russia’s development of new nuclear capabilities, and the United States’ planned response. His remarks signaled the Biden administration’s assessment that nuclear risks are growing, particularly in the wake of Russia’s suspension of New START, the last U.S.-Russian treaty governing the two states’ nuclear arms, in February. What was most notable about his speech, however, was what he promised President Joe Biden would not do: launch a countervailing U.S. nuclear buildup. On this point, Sullivan was emphatic: “I want to be clear here—the United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them”.… Seguir leyendo »
Rusia amenaza periódicamente con usar armas nucleares, ya sea contra Ucrania o contra sus aliados, si cruzan las "líneas rojas" trazadas por el Kremlin. Otra manifestación del chantaje nuclear ruso fue la decisión en marzo de 2023 de colocar armas nucleares tácticas en Bielorrusia.
A principios de mayo, la directora de Inteligencia estadounidense, Avril Haines, afirmó en las audiencias del Senado que, en opinión de su Departamento, "es extremadamente improbable" que Rusia use armas nucleares. Sin embargo, para comprender si las amenazas del Kremlin deben tomarse en serio, vale la pena analizar sus motivos.
La Rusia de Putin busca restaurar su condición de superpotencia, pero hay una serie de obstáculos en el camino hacia ese objetivo.… Seguir leyendo »
Las reiteradas amenazas de Vladimir Putin sobre el posible uso de misiles nucleares y, más recientemente, sobre su eventual despliegue en Bielorrusia han venido a recordarnos el terrible peligro que entraña la utilización de este tipo de armamento. Según numerosos observadores, desde la crisis de Cuba de 1962 el mundo nunca ha estado tan cerca de emprender una guerra nuclear, con la peculiaridad de que el arsenal disponible en el planeta es hoy mucho mayor que el existente durante la Guerra Fría.
Recordemos que la energía liberada en una explosión nuclear puede superar miles a millones de veces a la que se produce en las mayores detonaciones convencionales.… Seguir leyendo »
En 2022 volvió al mundo el fantasma del uso de armas nucleares en el marco de la invasión rusa de Ucrania. Desde entonces, Vladimir Putin ha blandido la espada nuclear de su país sobre Ucrania y Occidente.
Con ello, el presidente ruso trata de obligar a Ucrania a ceder a las demandas de Rusia y de disuadir a la OTAN de intervenir en el conflicto.
En un paso más allá de la amenaza, Putin anunció el pasado 25 de marzo el acuerdo con Bielorrusia para desplegar en este país armas nucleares tácticas, una nueva amenaza en la escalada de tensiones.
Ante esta situación, parece que el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear, un intento de salvaguardar al mundo de una catástrofe, se ve amenazado de nuevo.… Seguir leyendo »
Vladimir Putin last week gave details of Russia’s stated intent to base tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The flurry of alarmist reporting on what this meant highlights much of what is wrong with Western responses to Russian nuclear intimidation.
How Putin’s words have been spun in the West may be a surprise to Moscow — but there’s no doubt it will be a highly gratifying one. Because Russia has already “used” nuclear weapons. It’s used them highly successfully without firing them, by trading on empty threats about potential nuclear strikes to very effectively deter the West from fully supporting Ukraine against Russia’s imperialist war.… Seguir leyendo »
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to suspend Russia’s participation in the New START pact on nuclear weapons could be a blessing. If it prompts the United States to acknowledge that the bipolar world of U.S.-Russia nuclear arms agreements is a thing of the past, and that China must now be reckoned with as a third major nuclear power, then Putin will have done the United States a favor.
His intent, of course, was to try to intimidate the United States and its allies aiding Ukraine against Russia’s aggressions. Putin was playing another of his nuclear cards, just as he had with implicit threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or to escalate the ongoing conventional war.… Seguir leyendo »
Easy to miss in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to parliament last week was a glancing reference to the possibility of Russia resuming nuclear testing.
In a surprise move, Putin said that Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the US conducted one first.
While most of the media focus has been on Russia suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty, this announcement was just as significant, with potentially devastating consequences.
It would signify a further step towards escalation in Ukraine by demonstrating Russia’s intent to use nuclear weapons and could begin another, more devastating, nuclear arms race.… Seguir leyendo »
In a major speech this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was suspending his country’s participation in the New START treaty, Russia’s only remaining major nuclear arms control agreement with the United States. He also threatened to resume nuclear weapons tests. The declarations sent jitters through the international community. These actions constituted yet another example of Putin’s willingness to leverage his nuclear arsenal, dangling it like the sword of Damocles over the West in order to limit NATO’s support for Ukraine.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine last February, Russian leaders have issued numerous explicit nuclear threats against Ukraine and NATO.… Seguir leyendo »
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine last February, there has been a near-constant debate about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear arsenal—and what he might do with it. The United States has repeatedly warned that a flustered Russia may actually be willing to use nuclear weapons, and the Kremlin itself has regularly raised the specter of a nuclear strike. According to top U.S. officials, senior Russian military leaders have discussed when and under what circumstances they might employ nuclear weapons. The concerns have even prompted states close to Russia, notably China, to warn Moscow against going nuclear.
The ultimate weapon has, of course, not been employed in this conflict, and one hopes that it never will be.… Seguir leyendo »
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a wave of concern about the global nuclear order. Such worries are understandable. A nuclear-armed state invaded and is trying to conquer its nonnuclear neighbor, threatening to use nuclear weapons to win if necessary. Making matters worse, that neighbor, Ukraine, had agreed not to become a nuclear-armed state, returning the arsenal it inherited from the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Russia’s blatant violation of those assurances and its threats to use nuclear weapons to deter outside intervention in Ukraine, according to many analysts, sends a powerful signal to nonnuclear states: get nuclear weapons as fast as you can, lest you become the next Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
El debate sobre un posible uso de armas nucleares rusas en la guerra de Ucrania ha generado un creciente interés público en las últimas semanas. Si bien Vladimir Putin afirmaba el pasado 27 de octubre que «no ve la necesidad» de recurrir a las armas nucleares, dichas declaraciones contradicen sus sucesivas amenazas desde que comenzó la guerra. Joe Biden, por su parte, parece dar escasa credibilidad a las últimas declaraciones de Putin, a quien acusa de continuar avivando la retórica nuclear. ¿Es el recurso constante a la retórica nuclear por parte de Putin simplemente un intento de prevenir una intervención militar occidental y asustar a Ucrania?… Seguir leyendo »
Dos superpotencias nucleares enfrentadas sin una vía de salida evidente. Un líder ruso errático que utiliza un lenguaje apocalíptico. Bronca en Naciones Unidas con reproches de estar jugando con el juicio final de un armagedón… La era moderna empezó hace justo sesenta años cuando el mundo se asomó primero al abismo de la destrucción mutua asegurada antes de engañarse durante la 'posguerra fría' con la idea de que las armas nucleares eran algo del pasado, irrelevantes y condenadas a desaparecer por sí mismas.
Durante trece días del mes de octubre de 1962, ante el despliegue soviético de armas nucleares en la isla de Cuba, Washington y Moscú llevaron su antagonismo hasta el límite.… Seguir leyendo »
Le conflit en Ukraine replace le nucléaire militaire en première ligne. La question a été relancée avec le discours de Vladimir Poutine du 28 septembre et des différentes interventions publiques. Comment devons-nous interpréter ces échanges ? Un tir nucléaire serait-il plausible ? En réalité, la différence reste considérable entre les paroles et les actes. La situation reste tendue, mais contrôlée.
Selon la doctrine russe, certaines conditions autorisent l’emploi de l’arme nucléaire. Elles ont été détaillées par le décret présidentiel du 2 juin 2020 : « La Fédération de Russie se réserve le droit d’utiliser la force nucléaire en cas d’attaque à l’arme de destruction massive contre elle et ses alliés, de même qu’en cas d’agression contre la Fédération de Russie avec des armements conventionnels, lorsque l’existence de l’Etat est menacée ».… Seguir leyendo »
¿El presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, realmente va a recurrir a las armas nucleares en su esfuerzo por subyugar y dividir a Ucrania?
Hace algunos meses, la mayoría de los observadores descartaron esa posibilidad y la calificaron como altamente improbable. Putin lo había insinuado, pero no existían señales concretas de preparación para el uso de armas nucleares, y parecía ser una medida irracional incluso para los estándares de lo que solíamos pensar de Putin. Hoy existen razones para tomar el asunto con mayor seriedad.
El discurso que pronunció Putin el 30 de septiembre, durante una ceremonia que marcó la anexión ilegal de gran parte del territorio ucraniano, dejó en evidencia una mentalidad desprovista tanto de racionalidad como de conexión con la realidad.… Seguir leyendo »
Cuando hablamos de escenarios futuros, a menudo tendemos a manejar resultados binarios, es decir, triunfos y desastres. Cuando debatimos si Vladímir Putin recurrirá a las armas nucleares, también pensamos de forma binaria. Lo hará o no lo hará.
Debemos recordar que Putin entra en esa categoría de personas que mienten, pero que rara vez se tiran un farol. Nuestra mejor guía sobre su actuación es su propio pasado. Ha utilizado el agente químico Novichok en el Reino Unido, y también en casa contra Alexéi Navaln i. Por lo que sabemos, hizo saltar por los aires los oleoductos Nord Stream en aguas danesas del mar Báltico.… Seguir leyendo »
Is Vladimir Putin really going to use nuclear weapons as part of his effort to subjugate and break up Ukraine?
Some months ago, most observers dismissed this as highly unlikely. Putin had hinted at the possibility, but there were no concrete signs of preparation for nuclear use, and it seems to be irrational even beyond what we once knew of Putin.
Today there is reason to take the issue more seriously.
The speech that Putin gave on Sept. 30, during a ceremony marking the illegal annexation of large parts of Ukrainian territory, demonstrated a mind-set devoid of both rationality and reality.… Seguir leyendo »
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