CIDOB

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados a partir del 1 de mayo de 2009.

Uno de los principales avances de la Nueva Agenda Urbana (NUA) aprobada en Habitat III (Quito, 2016) fue la inclusión del derecho a la ciudad. A pesar de que su formulación fue tímida —contó con fuertes resistencias entre los gobiernos de algunos países— se trata de un concepto con un fuerte potencial estructurante, narrativo, de alto valor político y que despertó expectativas importantes entre determinados sectores de la comunidad internacional.

Sorprende, por ello, que la Declaración final del Foro Urbano Mundial (WUF9, en sus siglas en inglés) celebrado en Kuala Lumpur (Malasia) no solo no haya servido para avanzar en su despliegue, sino que lo haya obviado.…  Seguir leyendo »

The countries which lies south of the Sahara desert in north west Africa Sahel belt – Mauritania, Chad, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – remain below the radar of international affairs. Soldiers die there virtually every week in what are often referred to as “mopping up” operations led by troops of the G5 group of nations which, under the military umbrella of France are tasked with making the Sahel region safe from the incursions of jihadi terrorism. If the soldiers and officers killed are African, their deaths usually go unreported internationally, if they are French they will make it on French news but not elsewhere in Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

In 2011 Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent troops to Bahrain after unrest in the country. This marked the beginning of a more assertive foreign policy in the MENA region that later culminated in an ill-fated military intervention in Yemen and a boycott of Qatar. Bahrain is a crucial ally and client state of Saudi Arabia, which fears growing influence of Iran among the Shiite majority population of the country. Bahrain’s economic stability is important for its political stability. It is closely connected to oil prices, Saudi transfers, diversification efforts and economic reform.

Low oil prices since the second half of 2014 and domestic and regional political risks have impacted the credit risk and liquidity situation of Bahrain.…  Seguir leyendo »

In March 2017, Jean Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, presented his five possible future scenarios for a fragile European Union in search of a renewed compromise and probably a more flexible construction. Right after Juncker’s announcement, the four large Eurozone countries -Germany, France, Italy and Spain- met in Versailles to discuss their next moves towards greater integration and to draw a future Union at various speeds. The presence of the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, at that meeting in the outskirts of Paris, after a long period of absence in the directory commanding the ship of a European Union in crisis, was a turning point, from Madrid’s perspective.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mientras la Unión Europea se quiebra políticamente por la gestión de su propia mal llamada crisis migratoria, 65 millones de desplazados forzosos en todo el mundo luchan por sobrevivir en unas duras condiciones de vida. Burundi, un país de apenas 11 millones de habitantes, y con un territorio algo menor al de Bélgica, es el noveno país del mundo, según datos de UNHCR, que más desplazados forzosos produce. Las historias de estas personas obligadas a salir de sus hogares parten de la memoria y de las consecuencias del genocidio. Hombres con cuerpos abrasados porque un día sus casas fueron prendidas por pertenecer a una etnia que no correspondía, mujeres violadas con brazos lacerados a golpe de machete que apenas tienen movilidad suficiente como para llevarse el cubierto a la boca.…  Seguir leyendo »

La 23ª conferencia de Naciones Unidas sobre cambio climático (COP23) tuvo lugar del 6 al 17 de noviembre en Bonn. Bajo la presidencia de la República de Fiyi, el objetivo del encuentro era avanzar en la formulación de un “libro de reglas” (rule book) para la implementación de los compromisos nacionales y así cumplir con los compromisos asumidos en el Acuerdo de París (2016): mantener el aumento de la temperatura media mundial muy por debajo de 2ºC con respecto a los niveles preindustriales y proseguir los esfuerzos para limitar ese aumento de la temperatura a 1,5ºC con respecto a los niveles preindustriales.…  Seguir leyendo »

En 2017 Bruselas recuperó su optimismo. Unidad y estabilidad se convirtieron en las nuevas palabras mágicas para una Unión en estado de transición permanente que necesitaba conjurar el mazazo político y anímico del Brexit. Los procesos electorales en los Países Bajos, Francia y Alemania, frenaron el asalto al poder de un populismo que, sin embargo, sigue vigente y en expansión, especialmente después de la formación del nuevo Gobierno de coalición austríaco.

La retórica europea ha cambiado. Pero, mientras la superación de la crisis no quede plasmada en políticas concretas, los nuevos discursos de espíritu reformista no serán suficientes. Las ambiciosas propuestas del presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, para reformar y federalizar la eurozona -todavía sin el apoyo real de Berlín y con el recelo esperado de las capitales más temerosas de una Europa con socios de primera y de segunda- y las vagas conclusiones de la Cumbre Social de Gotemburgo -sin compromisos vinculantes pero con la constatación de que no puede haber renovación sin Europa social- han puesto los primeros cimientos del nuevo discurso europeo.…  Seguir leyendo »

If Tunisia’s elite continues to fiddle while Carthage burns, the only fledging democracy in the Arab world risks self destructing or reverting to some form of authoritarian rule. It is seven years since the fall of the dictator Ben Ali. His fall decapitated the predatory ruling family and legalised political parties, not least the Islamist party Nahda. And it sparked revolts across the Arab world. However Tunisia faces a real revolution unless its leaders articulate and enact bold economic reforms which offer desperately needed hope to the country’s mass of unemployed and ill-educated young people.

The freedom of speech that followed the end of the old authoritarian regime has today too often morphed into freedom to blackmail and insult.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hace años que intuimos una crisis del orden global pero en 2018 los síntomas se manifestarán con mayor frecuencia e intensidad. A ello contribuirán tres factores:

Los vacíos de poder. Estados Unidos se está retirando de algunos espacios que otros actores parecen dispuestos a llenar. El abandono de sus compromisos multilaterales y la retórica de America first no son interpretados como una demostración de fuerza sino como expresión de su debilidad.

La cuarta revolución industrial. Un acelerado cambio tecnológico que ya se está traduciendo en una redistribución del poder a escala global y que está alterando las bases sobre las que se fundamentan los órdenes económicos y sociales de las economías más desarrolladas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Not for decades has there been such public hand-wringing over Russian intentions in Syria, Libya and the Mediterranean. European and American media keep reminding us that Russia’s moves are evidence of aggressive policies, similar to Russian military actions in Ukraine and Crimea. Ethan Chorin, a former US diplomat, in “Russia Strategic Waiting Game in Libya” said this is “hyperbole”. While Russia has taken advantage of the vacuum in US policy since the “Arab spring” to maintain and increase its geographical status, its policy remains “selective and opportunistic.” It has neither the resources nor the desire to incur responsibilities, other than limited in Syria and not at all in Libya for the foreseeable future.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un trilema es un problema con tres soluciones pero en el que sólo dos de ellas son posibles al mismo tiempo. Es un concepto que se usa a menudo para referirse a la naturaleza del Estado de Israel. Siguiendo esta lógica los israelíes estarían obligados a escoger una combinación de dos de estos tres elementos: (1) ser un estado plenamente democrático en el que todos los ciudadanos tengan los mismos derechos; (2) ser un Estado donde los judíos sean la columna vertebral del estado –  algo que algunos asocian con la idea de un “Estado judío” y otros con la de un “Estado para los judíos”; y (3) ejercer soberanía no sólo sobre el Israel internacionalmente reconocido – el de las fronteras de 1967- sino también sobre los territorios palestinos.…  Seguir leyendo »

As ever more private “revelations” of tax avoidance and tax havens hit the front pages of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, the British The Guardian and the French Le Monde – the aptly name Paradise Papers (13.4m files), many ordinary people in Europe have convinced themselves that all their political leaders are dishonest and out to line their pockets rather than work for the public good. In coordination with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, 381 journalists in 67 countries have worked with the leaked information, much of which originated with the Bermuda law firm Appleby, to report stories on how wealthy individuals and companies use offshore accounts to make their fortunes untraceable and unreachable.…  Seguir leyendo »

By the end of 2016, there were 65.6 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, 22.5 million of whom were refugees. While public discourse and debate is very much focused on new arrivals and, particularly in Europe, on a state’s capacity to welcome more refugees, the reality is that a number as high as 11.6 million refugees live in a protracted situation. That is, these men, women and children have been in exile – in limbo – pending a durable solution for years. According to some accounts, the average time a person spends as a refugee is 16 years.

In the current international context, finding durable solutions for refugees is becoming increasingly complicated (there are three types of durable solutions: repatriation, local integration, or resettlement, each one of them with a different set of conditions and processes).…  Seguir leyendo »

“En el norte, levantisco de siempre, no hace falta más que una chispa para que todo arda, aunque el día anterior haya sido una balsa de aceite“. Con aquellas palabras un diplomático español, cónsul en Nador, intentaba explicar al diario ABC en el año 1984 la intensidad que las protestas habían alcanzado en la región del Rif durante las llamadas “revueltas del pan”. Desde la independencia de Marruecos, el carácter indómito de la región, así como su distancia económica, social y política respecto del poder central del Estado han sido germen de diferentes episodios de tensión, como el vivido a lo largo del último año en la provincia de Alhucemas, en el Rif central.…  Seguir leyendo »

Desde hace unas semanas, diferentes fuentes apuntan la posibilidad de que PetroChina y Sinopec -empresas de propiedad de un consorcio público chino del que también es parte el fondo soberano de este país- se haga con entre un 5 y un 10% de la petrolera estatal saudí Aramco. De materializarse la oferta pública inicial, la compra significaría un nuevo paso del gobierno chino en su búsqueda de soluciones para el gran problema de suministro energético que afecta a su economía, después de que este mismo trimestre se confirmase la compra de alrededor de un 15% de la rusa Rosneft por parte de CEFC China Energy.…  Seguir leyendo »

One month ago, on October 4, four members of US Special Operations Forces were killed and two wounded in an attack in western Niger, an emerging hot spot of Islamist terrorist activity. If an Islamist armed group was responsible, as some reports suggest, this would be the first known incident in which such a group has killed US soldiers on active duty in the Sahel. Western civilians, including US civilians, have died however in a recent series of mass-casualty attacks by Islamist extremists in regional African capitals. A number of French military have lost their life too.

Such groups conduct regular attacks against local targets: their focus includes  government officials, prisons, schools and individuals accused of collaborating with the state or French-led counter terrorism operations – and against UN peacekeepers in Mali.…  Seguir leyendo »

The “extraordinary elevation” of Xi Jinping -Donald Trump’s description of the result of 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC)- echoes the extraordinary rise of China as a geoeconomic superpower after Deng Xiaoping inaugurated the “reform and opening up” policy in 1978. Geoeconomic power tends to become geopolitical power. This is Xi Jinping’s mid- to long-term objective. He has divided the history of the socialist revolution in China into three 30-year periods: the first dominated by “Mao Zedong Thought”, the second dominated by “Deng Xiaoping Theory”, and the new period to be dominated by “Xi Jinping Thought” on “socialism with Chinese characteristics for the New Era”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iran has become a “hyped” country. Since the Joint Comprehension Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the technical name for the so-called Iran deal – was implemented in January 2016, much has been written about the economic potential of the country and its golden road ahead. It is present in every conversation, article and business meeting related to new markets and opportunities. Due to its “potential” to become the pivot for China, Central Asia and the Middle East, the government has been lavishly promoting the idea of a “promising” future for its citizens. And thus the last elections were a walk in the park for the Rouhani administration.…  Seguir leyendo »

In the months and year ahead, the future of Tunisia will be shaped by its regional environment and by the capacity of its leaders to enact bold reforms. While Algeria has helped its smaller neighbour confront terrorism, the country’s interplay with Libya has been altogether more complex. The impact of the Libya crisis on the Tunisian economy has not been easy to decipher but a World Bank report now allows for a better understanding of the complex interplay of economic and social factors between the two countries since 2011.

Slow progress marred by loss of finance minister

Two events characterised the domestic last August.…  Seguir leyendo »

“This business of ours has existed since the neolithic, and we still haven’t learned”. These are the words of a Spanish property developer who a few days ago opened a discussion group for experts to share concerns about the construction sector that aims for consensus solutions that allow the professionalisation of a trade that has been centre stage since the 2007 financial crisis and its consequences.

To be sure, the issue of housing is intrinsic to the city: cities were invented to be lived in. Later, with the creation of states, housing policies were raised to the level of national policies and the right to housing is now recognised in almost all constitutions.…  Seguir leyendo »