Articles in English

War Unbound

InternacionalOrden Mundial

Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages. Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024, killed more than 30,000 people, an estimated two-thirds of whom were women and children. The Israeli offensive has also displaced some two million people (more than 85 percent of the population of Gaza), left more than a million people at risk of starvation, and damaged or destroyed some 150,000 civilian buildings.…  Seguir leyendo »

Why the Military Can’t Trust AI

MundoAmérica, ,

In 2022, OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT, a chatbot that uses large language models to mimic human conversations and to answer users’ questions. The chatbot’s extraordinary abilities sparked a debate about how LLMs might be used to perform other tasks—including fighting a war. Although for some, including the Global Legal Action Network, LLMs and other generative AI technologies hold the promise of more discriminate and therefore ethical uses of force, others, such as advisers from the International Committee of the Red Cross, have warned that these technologies could remove human decision-making from the most vital questions of life and death.

The U.S. Department of Defense is now seriously investigating what LLMs can do for the military.…  Seguir leyendo »

A broken glass box at the looted Kherson Regional Museum after the Russian withdrawal from the city on Dec. 22, 2022. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

Europa, , , ,

Anyone who wants to understand Russian history should ignore Russian President Vladimir Putin. But anyone who wants to understand Putin’s strategic aims should pay close attention to his reading of history. The Russian president’s long lectures and essays on Kyivan Rus and World War II are not random tangents but rather the centerpieces driving his regime’s aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin’s efforts to impose its reading of history on Ukrainians living under occupation reveal the driving motives of this war, as well as its continued objectives.

Against the backdrop of the uncounted—and uncountable—civilian deaths, mass deportations, and domicide across the occupied territories of Ukraine, it might seem trivial to focus on historical memory.…  Seguir leyendo »

Abdoulaye Bathily, UN Special Representative for Libya and Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), gives a press conference in Tripoli on 11 March 2023. Photo by MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

UN Special Representative to Libya Abdoulaye Bathily has resigned after 18 months in post, leaving behind a political process best described as moribund.

Most international policymakers seem to believe Libyan rivals must initiate the deal to break the current impasse. The UN has taken the view that progress is not possible without the approval of key powerbrokers and their international backers.

On the other hand, many Libyan actors believe the only realistic chance of breaking the status quo is through an internationally mandated process. After all, the last two ‘unity’ governments have been created through UN mediation – in 2015-16 and 2020-21 respectively – while an attempt to produce a government through Libyan institutions alone has served only to produce a parallel government and reintroduce administrative division.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of Ukraine rally in Washington DC after the Senate passed a foreign aid bill on April 23, 2024. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Europa, , , ,

The new $61 billion US aid package for Ukraine, approved by Congress on 23 April, will improve Ukraine’s battlefield position – allowing stocks of ammunition from US bases in Poland and Germany to be shipped quickly to existing Ukrainian forces, and newly mobilized troops to be equipped.

Critics of Ukraine’s mobilization law, recently passed by the parliament in Kyiv, argued it made little sense to draft more men if there were no weapons to arm them: now that concern can be discarded.

The US package includes weapons Ukraine has long sought and which can make a significant difference in the war, like long-range ATACMS missiles.…  Seguir leyendo »

Police officers on patrol, Port-au-Prince, April 25, 2023. Richard Perrin/AFP/Getty Images

MundoAmérica

On Thursday, Ariel Henry formally resigned as prime minister of Haiti. Few were grateful for his service. Over thirty-two months, the longest premiership since 1987, Henry presided over a country where life grew steadily worse. For the past five years armed groups had terrorized the capital, Port-au-Prince; in January they intensified their assault. On February 29 they united forces and launched a full-scale uprising: they engineered two prison breaks and freed some 4,700 prisoners, engaged in firefights with the outgunned national police, shut down the airport, torched commissariats, and attacked banks and private homes.

When the uprising began Henry was away in Nairobi finalizing the terms of a foreign intervention, blessed by the United Nations and brokered by the United States.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

On April 9th, on the eve of the Eid al-Fitr holiday, the Indonesian Air Force conducted an airdrop of humanitarian aid in Gaza. In practical terms, this aid was just a drop in the ocean of horror and deprivation to which Gaza has been reduced lately. However, this gesture carried great symbolic value for the people of Indonesia and for me as their president-elect: it was a message of shared grief and pain, of solidarity and support, to our brothers and sisters in Gaza.

Over the past six months we have watched in horror as Gaza and its people have been subjected to a harsh campaign of collective punishment, in violation of international laws and norms.…  Seguir leyendo »

Like Germany’s president, I love a good kebab. Cosying up to autocrats like Erdoğan, less so

Europa,

“Nazis eat döner kebabs in secret”, must be one of the dumbest slogans I have seen at German protests against the far right. Yes, the popularity of the kebab in Germany has become something of a symbol of labour migration from Turkey after the second world war. And yes, Nazis get hungry, too. So what? If the consumption of ethnic-minority food was really an obstacle to the ideology of white supremacy, Germans would either be starved out by now or they wouldn’t vote for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Neither of these is the case: the kebab is the second most popular fast food among Germans, and according to polls, the AfD their second most popular political party.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pro-Israel activists counterdemonstrate at a Pro-Palestinian rally in New York on Oct. 13. (Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

MundoOriente Próximo

The Biden administration must do whatever it can to protect the Palestinian people in Gaza and the West Bank. It must also do whatever it can to protect Israelis. That means both pausing military assistance to the Israeli government until Palestinian civilians in Gaza have sufficient food, water, medicine and shelter to survive the war, and guaranteeing the Israeli people that the United States and its allies will do all they can to protect them from further attack.

The key to this dual policy is focusing on the lives of the people on both sides rather than on supporting or withdrawing support for a state.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Axis of Upheaval

InternacionalOrden Mundial

In the early morning of January 2, Russian forces launched a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv that killed at least five civilians, injured more than 100, and damaged infrastructure. The incident was notable not just for the harm it caused but also because it showed that Russia was not alone in its fight. The Russian attack that day was carried out with weapons fitted with technology from China, missiles from North Korea, and drones from Iran. Over the past two years, all three countries have become critical enablers of Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Moscow has deployed more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones.…  Seguir leyendo »

Old military vehicles arrive for a ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon, Portugal, 25 April 2024. Photograph: Antonio Pedro Santos/EPA

EuropaUnión Europea

Fifty years ago, on 25 April 1974, a military-led movement in Portugal took down the rightwing authoritarian regime that had governed the country for 41 years. The Carnation Revolution, named after the flowers people offered soldiers on the streets, led the country to democracy and an era of immense social progress – reducing infant mortality and illiteracy rates, for example, which were comparatively very high in 1974. By 1986, Portugal had made enough strides to be able to join the European Communities, now the EU.

I was born in the early 1990s, but even in my generation 25 April is a hallowed anniversary for many.…  Seguir leyendo »

A solar panel factory in Zaozhuang, China, on Feb. 20. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

MundoAsia

As its economy stagnates, China is doubling down on a policy agenda that threatens to destabilize global economic growth and the energy transition. In response, the United States should send a clear message that the world will not absorb the costs of these distortionary policies, and should work with our allies toward a more durable framework for global growth.

China confronts an economic dilemma of lagging growth, low consumption and an elevated savings rate. This is partly the result of its highly unequal economy, in which workers are paid a smaller share of what they produce than in most maturing economies.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pro-Israel activists counterdemonstrate at a Pro-Palestinian rally in New York on Oct. 13. (Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

MundoOriente Próximo

The Biden administration must do whatever it can to protect the Palestinian people in Gaza and the West Bank. It must also do whatever it can to protect Israelis. That means both pausing military assistance to the Israeli government until Palestinian civilians in Gaza have sufficient food, water, medicine and shelter to survive the war, and guaranteeing the Israeli people that the United States and its allies will do all they can to protect them from further attack.

The key to this dual policy is focusing on the lives of the people on both sides rather than on supporting or withdrawing support for a state.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Syrian tank from the Six-Day War in the Golan Heights, February 2019. Ronen Zvulun / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo,

To Israelis, October 7, 2023, is the worst day in their country’s 75-year history. Never before have so many of them been massacred and taken hostage on a single day. Thousands of heavily armed Hamas fighters managed to break through the Gaza Strip’s fortified border and into Israel, rampaging unimpeded for hours, destroying several villages, and committing gruesome acts of brutality before Israeli forces could regain control. Israelis have compared the attack to the Holocaust; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Hamas as “the new Nazis”. In response, the Israel Defense Forces have pursued an open-ended military campaign in Gaza driven by rage and the desire for revenge.…  Seguir leyendo »

Climate Policy Is Working

ReflexionesNaturaleza

Climate change is not just transforming the environment: it is also exacting a marked toll on mental health. In July 2023, scientists at Yale published a study of the psychological effects of climate change on adults in the United States and found that seven percent were experiencing mild to severe climate-related psychological distress. Among millennials and members of Gen Z, the figure is ten percent. A global study published in 2021 by The Lancet Planetary Health found that 59 percent of respondents between the ages of 16 and 25 were very worried or extremely worried about climate change.

These young people despaired of attempts by their governments to address the climate crisis and reported feeling that older generations had betrayed their generation and future ones: 77 percent of young Brazilians felt this way, as did 56 percent of young Americans.…  Seguir leyendo »

"In Taipei, I can walk down dark alleyways long past midnight with my purse wide open without fear of getting robbed," says Clarissa Wei, adding it's something she wouldn't feel comfortable doing in the US. Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images

MundoAméricaMundoAsia,

When my parents were growing up in the 1970s, they did not consider Taiwan an idyllic place to start a family. It was under martial law and the steady drumbeat of threats from China only seemed to be getting louder with each passing year. My dad still remembers the anxiety that engulfed the island when the United States cut off diplomatic recognition of Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China in 1979. “We weren’t sure if America would protect us if there was conflict”, he told me.

And so, in their late 20s, they left everything they knew and moved to the suburbs of Los Angeles where I was born.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

During his term in office, Donald Trump lied more than any American president in history. He threatened nuclear war, called neo-Nazis “very fine people”, mismanaged a pandemic and incited an insurrection at the Capitol. Yet he is still polling roughly evenly with President Joe Biden. Who wins in November—and by what margin—will be determined by what I call “double-haters”: those who are sceptical of both Mr Trump and Mr Biden.

I hold weekly focus groups with voters, and I hear from double-haters all the time. They tend to skew moderate, educated and suburban. They are overrepresented in swing states, especially the critical “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Dangerous Game Is Underway in Asia

MundoAsia

This month, President Biden threw one of the most lavish state dinners in Washington’s recent memory. Celebrities and billionaires flocked to the White House to dine in honor of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan, posing for photos in front of an elaborate display of Japanese fans. Jeff Bezos dropped by; Paul Simon provided the entertainment.

The spectacle was part of a carefully orchestrated series of events to showcase the renewed U.S.-Japan relationship — and the notable transformation of the United States’ security alliances in Asia. The next day, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines was also in the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Delusion of Peak China

MundoAsia

Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping secured his third term in power in the fall of 2022, he has had a rough time. Shortly after his reappointment, street protests pushed him to abruptly abandon his signature “zero COVID” policy. After a quick reopening bump in early 2023, the economy has progressively slowed, revealing both cyclical and structural challenges. Investors are leaving in droves, with foreign direct investment and portfolio flows reaching record lows. Meanwhile, Xi has fired his handpicked minsters for defense and foreign affairs in the wake of allegations of corruption and worse. His military bungled its balloon intelligence-collection program, precipitating an unwanted crisis after a stray balloon floated over the continental United States for days in early 2023.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lebanese watching an address by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Beirut, April 2024. Mohamed Azakir / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo,

Over the past six months, tensions along Israel’s border with Lebanon have escalated dramatically. Israel has now deployed 100,000 troops to its north to confront the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, and the fighting there has steadily intensified. Nearly 400 Lebanese—including around 70 civilians and three journalists—have been killed, 90,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced from around 100 towns and villages along the Israeli-Lebanese border, and Lebanese villages and olive groves have incurred widespread damage from phosphorus bombs. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has attempted to demonstrate its support for Hamas, now under siege from Israel in Gaza after its October 7 attack, by firing rockets almost daily at Israeli towns and military targets, displacing nearly 80,000 Israelis and killing a half dozen civilians.…  Seguir leyendo »