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Ukrainian servicemen fire in the Kharkiv region on May 15, amid a fresh Russian assault. Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad, , ,

It was a carefully choreographed show of force in Beijing Thursday as Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for yet another meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. They were all smiles.

Meanwhile in Europe, the atmosphere could have hardly felt less jovial.

On Wednesday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times and gravely wounded in an assassination attempt. Fico is reportedly out of danger now, with many details about the shooting still unclear. But the dramatic event added to the foreboding sense of crisis across the region; the feeling that, as tense as the situation is, it’s time to prepare urgently, because it might turn much worse.…  Seguir leyendo »

Robert Fico at a press conference with Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orbán, on 16 January. Photograph: Dénes Erdős/AP

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Shortly after the shooting of Robert Fico, I received a phone call from my sister. She was extremely upset – not just about the shocking attack, but also about an incident on the bus on the way home from work in the moments after the news had broken. Two elderly fellow passengers reacted to the attempted assassination by blaming liberals and progressives in general, and in particular Michal Šimečka, an opposition politician and former vice-president of the European parliament. One passenger called for the death penalty to be reinstated and order to be restored.

At that point, the circumstances of the shooting were entirely unclear, information was partial, and it was too early to condemn or point the finger at anyone.…  Seguir leyendo »

A barrier wall snakes along the West Bank. William Keo for The New York Times

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It was the pictures of Palestinians swimming and sunning at a Gaza beach that rubbed Yehuda Shlezinger, an Israeli journalist, the wrong way. Stylish in round red glasses and a faint scruff of beard, Mr. Shlezinger unloaded his revulsion at the “disturbing” pictures while appearing on Israel’s Channel 12.

“These people there deserve death, a hard death, an agonizing death, and instead we see them enjoying on the beach and having fun”, complained Mr. Shlezinger, the religious affairs correspondent for the widely circulated right-wing Israel Hayom newspaper. “We should have seen a lot more revenge there”, Mr. Shlezinger unrepentantly added. “A lot more rivers of Gazans’ blood”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?

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Last week, the Russian military opened a new front in its invasion of Ukraine.

Launching an offensive into the Kharkiv region, Russian forces quickly advanced several kilometers, managing to reoccupy several villages that were liberated during Ukraine’s successful offensive in September 2022. They have not yet reached the main line of defenses east of the city, which are held by brigades better equipped and more experienced than those closer to the border. But the situation is serious.

By threatening Ukraine’s second most populous city, Russia hopes to pin Ukrainian resources in the region, exposing the front elsewhere. Ukraine’s immediate priority is to stabilize the front line and prevent a major Russian breakthrough, which it may be able to do.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers remarks in Jerusalem on Sunday. (Debbie Hill/Pool/AP)

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Something very unusual is happening in Israel. Senior military officials have begun voicing criticism of how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is conducting the war in Gaza. Israeli media has been reporting on a weekend security meeting at which the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Gen. Herzi Halevi, criticized Netanyahu’s lack of a clear strategy. Pointing out that the Israeli military had reentered northern Gaza — an area it had claimed to have cleared in January — Halevi warned that unless there was a plan to set up some kind of non-Hamas government in these areas, the IDF would have to keep repeating these kinds of operations, endlessly.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico City, September 2023. Henry Romero / Reuters

MundoAmérica,

As Mexico’s June 2 presidential election draws near, more is at stake than a competition among political parties. For the past five and a half years, the country’s prototypical populist leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, has driven a process of democratic backsliding that mirrors developments in countries across the globe. Democracies are no longer dying primarily as a result of military coups carried out by generals with tanks and rifles. Mexico’s democracy, like many others, is being destroyed by a freely elected and popular president who has manipulated democratic institutions and seeks to change not just the rules of the electoral game but also the entire political system so that his party remains in power.…  Seguir leyendo »

Laying flowers in memory of slain Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, Moscow, February 2024. Evgenia Novozhenina / Reuters

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On May 7, as Russian President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated for his fifth term in office, no one in Russia was prepared to protest. Given the country’s protracted and costly war in Ukraine, its creeping autocracy, and now this spring a major terrorist attack and widespread floods, outsiders may have wondered why people are not taking to the streets in large numbers and calling for an end to Putin’s rule. Are Russians simply unable to think and act for themselves?

The situation is more complicated than it appears. Yes, Russian society is in a state of conformist apathy, justifying the war to itself by borrowing words given to the public by the authorities; the political opposition is in exile, in jail, or dead.…  Seguir leyendo »

Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, left, with the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, following a meeting in Budapest, Hungary, 16 January 2024. Photograph: Szilárd Koszticsák/EPA

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A few years after the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993, known as the “velvet divorce”, the newly independent Slovakian state to the south was already a cause of concern. The US secretary of state at the time, Madeleine Albright, called it “the black hole” of Europe.

Eventually, in 2004 Slovakia joined the EU and Nato. The assumption then in the west was that the country, finally, had a settled identity and a settled set of alliances.

Then came Robert Fico, a prototype populist. He was an early embracer of identity politics: the good men and women of toil in the small towns and villages versus the metropolitan elite in Bratislava, the capital, with their imported ideas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinian women and children flee Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on 15 May 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Photo by AFP via Getty Images.

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Negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a ceasefire and the release of hostages have exposed two facts about the current state of the seven-month war in Gaza.

The first is that neither side is convinced that what is on offer is satisfactory enough to bring this horrific war to an end, even temporarily. The other – which has been a lesson for the mediators – is that they are unable to pursue an agreement that goes further than the combatants are willing to go. Instead, Israeli forces have advanced into Rafah, despite international criticism and condemnation, including from Israel’s staunchest ally, the United States.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protesters waving Russian flags and holding a portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin protest against French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to the DRC, in Kinshasa on 1 March 2023. Photo by ARSENE MPIANA/AFP via Getty Images.

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Russia has been courting the states of the Global South to circumvent Western sanctions and avoid international isolation – with notable success. In February 2024, Moscow hosted the first ‘For the Freedom of Nations’ forum with 400 delegates from 60 countries, aiming to rally the countries of the Global South against ‘Western neo-colonialism’.

The previous year, it hosted both a Russia-Africa summit and a first international parliamentary conference of Latin American countries. Moscow has also actively lobbied for the expansion of BRICS, which it currently chairs, and sent Foreign Minister Lavrov on several tours across the Global South. This week, Russia is hosting its Russia and the Islamic World Kazan forum, expecting more than 11,000 delegates from 79 countries.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks on May 1 with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the Kerem Shalom border crossing with Gaza in southern Israel. (Evelyn Hockstein/AFP/Getty Images)

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It’s time for Israel to begin building a Palestinian security force in Gaza that can provide stability there after the political power of Hamas is broken, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a blunt briefing this week.

“The idea is simple”, Gallant told me. “We will not allow Hamas to control Gaza. We don’t want Israel to control it, either. What is the solution? Local Palestinian actors backed by international actors”.

Gallant’s frank comments mark a turn in the Israeli government’s debate about governance and security issues in Gaza, known by the shorthand phrase “the day after”. His views are widely shared by the defense and security establishment but opposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition.…  Seguir leyendo »

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a missile facility, May 2024. KCNA / Reuters

MundoAsia

U.S. President Joe Biden has plenty of foreign policy crises on his hands. But unfortunately for him, as the United States heads into November’s elections there’s a high chance of yet another emergency: renewed provocations from North Korea. Pyongyang has a history of acting out during U.S. elections. Research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for example, found that North Korea stages more than four times as many weapons tests in U.S. election years than in other years.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is already growing fraught. On January 10, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared South Korea to be an enemy state, ending all talk of peaceful reunification and setting the stage for more hostilities.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te holds a press conference in Taipei, Taiwan, January 2024. Ann Wang / Reuters

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On May 20, in a ceremony in Taipei, Lai Ching-te is scheduled to be inaugurated as the next leader of Taiwan. Currently vice president, Lai is taking over from President Tsai Ing-wen at a delicate moment in Taiwan’s relations with Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party regards the self-ruling island of 23 million people as a renegade province to be unified with the mainland by force, if necessary. And although Taiwan has managed to maintain significant trade and interpersonal ties to mainland China while postponing discussions over its sovereignty, this ambiguous status quo has recently frayed amid political headwinds from both Beijing and Taipei.…  Seguir leyendo »

A protester wearing a European Union flag facing off against riot police during an opposition rally against the “foreign agent” bill, Tbilisi, Georgia, May 14, 2024. Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg/Getty Images

MundoCáucaso

I’ve visited Tbilisi, the capital of the Republic of Georgia, several times over the past few years. It’s a likable place, with rich cultural offerings, fine food and wine, and hospitable people. This March, however, the city seemed gripped by a sense of unease. Everyone I spoke to on my visit—politicians, civil society activists, and ordinary citizens—worried about the next general election, set for October. This is “an existential moment”, Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister, told me. “If we miss this chance to hold free, fair and competitive elections, we could be missing the window to embark on a path to Europe”.…  Seguir leyendo »

New Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (C) smiles next to President Tharman Shanmugaratnam (R) during the swearing-in ceremony at the Istana in Singapore on May 15. Edgar Su/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

MundoAsia

It’s a little startling when a senior civil servant begins to casually ruminate about the inevitability of the end for any nation and political order and, in the longue durée, the finite lifespan of the one that they serve. If this were the Second French Empire as Prussians besieged Paris and the Commune ran the streets or Myanmar today one could understand. But what does Singapore have to worry about?

On April 15, then-Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the son of Singapore’s revered first prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, announced that he would be stepping down. The succession is proceeding with a smoothness that is near-soporific.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Firouzabadi, then head of the Iranian military, look through binoculars during the test firing of short- and medium-range missiles on Sept. 18, 2004. AFP via Getty Images

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Will Iran ever acquire nuclear weapons? What would happen if it did? The answer to the first question seems increasingly to be yes. The second question, however, is as unclear as ever.

The Islamic Republic has been at odds with the United States and many of its neighbors for 45 years, ever since the revolution that toppled the shah in 1979. The United States backed Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War (even though Baghdad had started the conflict), and then-U.S. President George W. Bush included Tehran in his infamous “axis of evil”. The Obama administration eventually signed a nuclear deal with Iran, but it also collaborated with Israel to conduct a major cyberattack on Iran’s enrichment infrastructure.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli airstrikes on northern Gaza seen from the Kfar Aza region of Israel on May 12, 2024. (Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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Within six months, US President Joe Biden went from categorically refusing to condition aid to Israel to threatening to halt certain weapons deliveries should Israel decide to invade Rafah in southern Gaza without a civilian protection plan in place. Just before his public ultimatum, Biden issued an order to pause a shipment of large bombs to Israel to ‘deliver a message’ to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This change in attitude, while no doubt politically significant, is of no practical consequence to Israel’s warfighting capacity in Gaza. Its significantly weaker foe, Hamas, has lost most of its combat power due to Israeli strikes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Gen Z’s new punctuation

ReflexionesSocial,

Don’t be alarmed if you see young people use increasingly macabre emojis online. In the past few years, for instance, the skull emoji has transformed into a symbol to communicate humor or irony. Much like an exclamation point or question mark, it can serve to both separate text and contextualize how a sentence should be understood. For example: I just wrote a Washington Post op-ed on Gen Z slang 💀

Although it might seem silly, the skull in my sentence serves a very important function. If I texted this to a friend without the emoji, it would either come across as boastful or oddly formal.…  Seguir leyendo »

A tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, May 2024. Doaa Rouqa / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo

The current crisis in the Middle East, sparked seven months ago by Hamas’s attack on Israel, shows worrying signs of worsening. Tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran in April, unprecedented in their directness, threaten to turn the long-standing shadow war between the two countries into outright military confrontation. Now, as Israel begins its ground assault in Rafah, the situation inside Gaza is deteriorating swiftly. With more than 34,000 civilian deaths already, accusations of genocide, and indications of a manmade famine, the humanitarian imperative is enormous and urgent. Outside Gaza, new Jewish settlements and incursions by the Israel Defense Forces in the West Bank stoke further tensions.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague against issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders and commanders after its investigation into the war in Gaza. Ronen Zvulun/Reuters/File

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The signs are mounting that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is weighing an indictment against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials over Israel’s conduct of its war against Hamas in Gaza. This would be an earthquake and could be seen as a case of selective justice that ends up helping the beleaguered prime minister politically.

The ICC, which was established in 2002, is more of a club of about 125 countries that tries to make the rules than a true manifestation of consensual “international law” — and it occupies a rather fuzzy position vis-à-vis non-member states like the United States and Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »