Expecting the Big One
Though it can offer scant comfort to the victims of the earthquake in Haiti, seismology is making some slight progress in its search for the holy grail of being able to predict dreadful events like that on Tuesday. New studies into ultra-slow-motion events deep underground called nonvolcanic tremors are showing vague but promising signs that the same kind of subterranean danger signals that allow us today to forecast when a volcano is about to erupt may one day offer some warning of the hitherto unpredictable nucleation — the explosive beginning — of an earthquake.
The most interesting studies are those that are proceeding, slowly and expensively, in Parkfield, Calif.… Seguir leyendo »